We've had a daily MSB on $HYPE as mentioned, so if we are truly bearish then 65.77 - the last major swing high - should not be broken, giving you an easy inval. I can see the eql highs above being swept first, which should time nicely with BTC hitting 65k.
That's the short I'm eyeing for now
Currently in a $BTC long after the yearly low sweep.
Looking to TP and flip short at the highs 64696.2
There's a lot resistance here. We have weekly/monthly single prints, AVWAP from the top of the last leg down, monthly VWAP, H1 200EMA, daily FVG, and the .382 of the last leg down.
If we breach there my next AOI would be 68380. But I'd be very surprised if we just go up only from here without taking the weekly lows first.
Let's see what this week brings π€
$HYPE closes below $56 and you have open szn on shorts until at least $35
If it manages to hold above range highs $59+, we go higher
Very important daily closes on the horizon π
Heading into RES now and market be chopping so cashing out here. Could go a little bit higher but in other longs atm so wanted to lock in the win. Nice play!
$CRV
Currently in a $BTC long after the yearly low sweep.
Looking to TP and flip short at the highs 64696.2
There's a lot resistance here. We have weekly/monthly single prints, AVWAP from the top of the last leg down, monthly VWAP, H1 200EMA, daily FVG, and the .382 of the last leg down.
If we breach there my next AOI would be 68380. But I'd be very surprised if we just go up only from here without taking the weekly lows first.
Let's see what this week brings π€
Longed CRV on the sweep of the 10/10 wick. These wicks have generally provided strong reactions.
Market looking like dirt right now, but a level is a level, and another loss I'm willing to cop for the potential upside benefit. If this gets stopped probably won't be taking trades for awhile.
TP is tentative, and will manage depending on what market provides.
$HYPE closes below $56 and you have open szn on shorts until at least $35
If it manages to hold above range highs $59+, we go higher
Very important daily closes on the horizon π
Kinda comical how wrong this was. No bounce, just a straight down-only nuke putting in the most bearish weekly candle we've had in years. What a market.
$btc
Still no 7.12% so I'm still not bought spot + a small rant.
Alright, ever since I talked about "we need a 7.12% bounce" before we can think about buying spot, seems to be my most disliked statement now.
I don't know why, I don't know how. In the end, I am just here to think out loud and help you bring clarity, preserve capital, make money, and buy and sell at the right time.
And there's no more clarity possible than my exact statement, giving exact numbers, and seeing it play out in live time, of how we need a 7.12% bounce first, before thinking about buying. And if we do not receive a 7.12% bounce, it leads to new lows time and time again.
Yes, I had "ideas" and "promises" 70k might hold, 60k likely holds, and now with more conviction than ever, that we very likely not go below 50k, and I still stand by the latter two (don't quote me on high timeframe ideas on a couple % when momentum is sharp).
I would be untruthful if I said I would know exactly when and where price bottoms. I know you're used to seeing me catching those tops and bottoms, but with a sharp and macro momentum downtrend in mind, that's just not realistic.
And no one is doing it either. Some are presenting zones repeatedly failing, and yes, they will filter out the quoted tweet and tell you in hindsight they did it (with no money to show for it).
By now, most are just bulls being quiet/ they have given up, and bears being loud and saying the words "told you, bear market". Repeatedly.
In my humble view, that's just not helpful, which is why I decided to share some very key and very relevant back testing information with you, of how to not get caught in it. Which is where my 7.12% bounce mechanic comes in.
I have written an extensive post, of why, before we can even think about a bottom confirming, we need that bounce, why we need such a move before a higher low, holds and doesn't lead to new lows.
So far, that exact mechanic has saved us, not once, not twice but three times so far.
So, regardless of how I don't understand how quite a few can just not accept how this absolutely simple, straight forward, highly specified and easy to follow metric, is "inherently bad", and "shame on me for drawing out a box that doesn't hold", I will just keep using it, for exactly those reasons to protect myself, and you.
Again, I'm here to share my thoughts, and whether you call it goal post moving, or being bad at analysis, all that matters is when I buy, where my money goes in and where it goes out, and how I do it.
Unlike all the chartist out there, I aim for clarity, precision and clear statements.
The 7.12% bounce is a very clear example, and I am very proud of this piece of data, saving us day in and day out now from buying a falling knife.
Instead, we get to buy a retest after a 7.12%+ bounce first, which is almost the same as bottom prices. The golden ticket to all your fomo problems, given here for free.
Accept it, understand it deeply, or quite frankly, probably never understand these markets in your time on this earth.
The rant ends. My job will be done. On how to buy the bottom at a perfect time.