This is an actual πΈ of what a $26k buyer credit looks like.
$26K = peace of mind + breathing room in your 1st year of homeownership.
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Commonly held belief: don't list your Bay Area home over the holidays. Wait for spring.
Actual math: we looked at 123,226 Bay Area listings from 2023 to 2025. The month when sellers cut prices most isn't December. It's July. π§΅
The catch: 79% of holiday listings closed v 85.7% in spring, and spring still gets about 2% more per sq ft. Winter rewards sellers who price right on day one.
Ever wonder why homes for sale have prices ending in $99 or $88? Did those homes outperform the vanilla listing prices of $00?
I was curious. So I looked at 23,625 recent home sales to see if teaser prices work. tl;dr teaser prices don't really work
A Bay Area home that goes into contract on day 13 sells for 109% of asking.
On day 17: 100%. Four days later = -9%. We looked at 24,607 sales this year. The 15-day cliff is real. (thread)
The best day isn't day 1. Homes that went pending in days 1 to 3 (often preemptive offers) got 102% to 104%. The peak is days 12 to 14, when offer dates land.
My read: follow the commute. BART-to-SF cities are catching SF's AI money. South-Bay-commuter suburbs are cooling with San Jose.
More data here (https://t.co/IBAfrc0Ggo)
"East Bay prices are flat" is technically true and practically useless.
We pulled ~12,000 single-family sales from TurboHome's MLS data across Alameda and Contra Costa counties. The average hides a split: