Take a look at how Bessent responded to a sitting U.S. Senator today and then ask yourself if you would want be his opponent in the Eurodollar funding markets…
Great breakdown 👇
The monetary system isn’t just “growth-friendly”, it’s growth-dependant
Most people assume “growth” is just a nice-to-have. But in a debt-based monetary system, it’s the oxygen the system breathes
Loans create money + interest. To service yesterday’s debt, tomorrow must always expand
That’s why policymakers panic when growth slows. It’s not just about prosperity, it’s about keeping the system itself alive
Every country is pivoting to running it hot. We’re gonna run as wide of deficits as possible to try and outgrow the debt. Central banks are giving up on inflation and fiscal dominance is arriving.
Nominal assets will do well, debasement hedges will do even better. The world of 2010-2020 is no longer. Reset your priors.
Let’s fucken go.
"What currency is going to replace the USD as global reserve currency?"
Central Banks: "No currency is going to replace the USD, but gold has been replacing USTs as primary reserve asset for 11 yrs. Gold has crushed USTs in that time, but most still refuse to accept reality."
6% decline in SPX drove only a 5 bp drop in 10y UST yld.
At this pace, getting 10y back to 3% will require taking SPX back to GFC lows.
Needed to deval debt/GDP 1st (unless the plan was to trigger a crisis worse than GFC to create political cover. If so, we're right on track.)
You don’t own enough gold.
Restating something set in the space several times with increasing volume over the last two years.
China and the US and related parties have cut a deal. The only way to reduce dollar dominance, which would help the brics and the G7 economically while reducing our own dollar denominated debt, is to float the price of gold higher. Probably in return for lower energy.
This is the reset. It’s happening now.
Gold will levitate as a counter balancer to the world, resetting its economic engines.
You think the US all of a sudden doesn’t know that the price of gold is going up?
Of course they do, they’re just not worried about it undermining the dominance of the dollar anymore… so long as it helps reduce our own deficits.
Mercantilism is a method of doing business until the trust returns.
Many in favor of "short term pain for long-term gain"; I too am favor of that.
HOWEVER: The mathematical reality is that the ONLY such strategy that does not result in "short-term pain for long-term pain" is devalue US Federal debt o/s by 50-80% v. gold, THEN reshore & invest.
This can be fixed over a weekend, faster than the launch of the Trump meme coin:
Bessent instructs Powell to write up US official gold from $42. Every $4,000/oz = $1T deposited free & clear into US Treasury General Acct for Bessent to spend however he sees fit (buy back USTs?) @elonmusk
A🧵on "DOGE":
1/ The problem with "DOGE" is NOT that there is not a lot of waste & even fraud in US govt spending.
The problem is govt waste & fraud adds to GDP in our system, just like fraudulent subprime mortgage & housing activity added to GDP 2003-07. 👇
The AAA-rated bonds below have since been downgraded by one agency; the organization has run record deficits for past 4 yrs; debt is now 7x revenues; OPEB liabilities still 30x revs; fixed costs now >100% of revs…& many still think BTC, gold, & stocks are the bubble, not USTs.