Nvda went sideways for 9 straight months and is just now expanding out of that, long nvda short tsla on, Tesla prob good short leg to kinda hedge out long exposure generally anyways
I keep seeing people say man everyone is apathetic we gonna run the bull back so hard time to lock in. Are none of you concerned eth / sol barely eclipsed prev cycle aths, btc clearly demonstrating diminishing returns cycle over cycle with saylor holding inordinate amount, quantum threat, only interesting narratives exist in tradfi etc etc
Could go on, same reasons i spoke about when derisking last year. Serious question, does none of this concern you when you’re blindly parroting that the next cycle is gonna make ppl “so fkn rich”. Sure there’s always asymmetric opps that come up to make money on but holding spot majors hasnt felt worthwhile for a long ass time.
Curious on thoughts from people still bullish the space going forward
Similar structure to Jan-Apr of this year but key differences
1) this rally above the previous highs barely went anywhere, not nearly same magnitude as the second wave eclipsing the spring summer 2024 chop
2) first time closing below this line
3) Jan-Apr had tariff fear as a clear narrative which made buying the bottom quite easy, this time it is not as clear when to buy or what will stop the decline
4)saylor neutered dats failed ETFs already accomplished presidential bull bias speculation done, part of the reason I was cash heavy before all this is because I don’t see where the next marginal buyer would come from, I still don’t, clear underperformance to tradfi getting clearer by the month
5) already closing well below the highs of the previous rally whereas the second rally only retested 75k, things look abysmal
6)blah blah could type more, things just look shit and these were reasons I get progressively more convinced a cash heavy bias was correct
this cycle played out differently to last cycle however imo contrary to popular belief we did actually have an alt season, it just happened mid cycle this time round as opposed to end of cycle like it has in prior bull runs.
we had memes doing 50-100x and majors like sol do nearly 30x
but because it happened quite early compared to when it usually happened ppl seem to think it never happened
gift on an entry on $silver here, perfect retest on a 45year ath breakout and clear abc on hourly.
genuinely surprised how many crypto ppl are loathing the precious metals rally, philosophically theyre ont he same side, money debasement hedge.
if this were a btc chart you would genuinely laugh anyone out of the room bearish here.
said my invalidation for being bearish was bitcoin weekly close > $120k & solana weekly close > $250
if $BTC is going to catch up to gold's most recent move it has a lot of room to run (+$12T market cap in last 15 months)
looks like was wrong on temporary bearishness of crypto & equities, think rhino was right on NVDA as good signal for continuation
dont believe in hard timeframe of 4 year cycle, but still believe it is prudent to have realized profits to your bank account if you are up substantially from the bottom, personally will likely be heavy $BTC with remaining port & add long exposure via perps if given the opportunity - strongest reason i dont believe in 4 year cycle top is that for entire history of bitcoin, gold has been ranging, this is the first bitcoin uptrend where gold has been on a massive tear the entire time, if you pull up the BTC/GOLD chart we have not even broken this pair's ATH from last cycle
if bitcoin were to top without making a new BTC/GOLD high would be indicative of it failing in its main use case as digital gold *or* that '21 cycle was peak bubble prices for bitcoin - believe neither of these things to be true
for those nonactive in markets w/ 9-5s, it is very important to have exposure to the stock indices & Bitcoin in some way, as admin is very adamant about attempting to devalue the dollar + grow our way out of our debt situation, which means wealthy ppl will hoard hard assets
lotta people (incl. me) missed past few weeks rotations which required you to be at desk and paying attention to narratives before they're fully formed
@Credib1eGuy & @wronguser000 have been some of the people good at spotting opportunities before they are consensus
there are a lot of other new launches still on the way over next few months so its worthwhile to have list of which protocols to pay attention to & have group of ppl looking for similar opps
IMO low probably found within a week for #BTC as the weakness winds down
Going forward a clearing of $114k would be confirmation
Stage being set for Q4
Figs arent what they used to be, even 5-10 years ago
these days-
$100k= dont feel rich
$1m = '7 fig hell'
$10m+ = unsettled.. the notional loss you take every year from fiat dilution is so high, if you take your foot off the gas even a bit on earning you don't even tread water
Saylor been putting in the work for many of these BTC whales in recent years and they can free-ride.
For the old money thats been listening to their old bankers and sitting in diversified 'safe' bonds in recent years.. they have to watch out for the rising water level.
This is not just an ad for Bitcoin. Society will have to figure out something soon because these trends are about to hyperaccelerate..
sitting on your hands is part of trading
you don’t always need to be doing something — oftentimes, the best trade is to do nothing
on slow days, it can be tempting to look for other “opportunities,” but you’re more likely to lose chasing
distract yourself at the right times!