__tomcusackhuang

Passionate about Quantitative Finance. My views are my own.

[__tomcusackhuang @__tomcusack]

I normalised the time series of the past 2 halvings to start at 100 (excl. 2012). This is the first 200 days of the 2016, 2020 and 2024 halving cycles. (Green = 2024, Orange = 2020, Blue = 2016). I think we need to remain patient and wait another 3 months for the supply shock.

[__tomcusackhuang @__tomcusack]

@camelfinance Tin foil hat idea, but MSTR are issuing their stock in a weeks time at the closing price today. Could Saylor have triggered a sell off to make MSTR as cheap as possible for its dividend-issued stock split in a weeks time? Hence the sudden buyback after close? 🤔

[__tomcusackhuang @__tomcusack]

@wildfarmed Just saw you in Bath. Didn't want to bother you during your day, but wanted to let you know your music has been inspirational for years and years. Hope to see you around some time again soon.

[__tomcusackhuang @__tomcusack]

@guggero I always figured that Bitcoin smart contracts were never going to be a thing (in the short/medium term). I was thinking how you could code a Bitcoin bond? Any ideas? I.e. You borrow 1 BTC from someone, then pay back x12 lots of interest payments (then 1 BTC back at the end)

[__tomcusackhuang @__tomcusack]

@guggero Is it possible to create a Taproot Asset, which schedules payments? I.e. Pays a person 1000 sats per day

[__tomcusackhuang @__tomcusack]

@guggero To clarify: If you were to write a smart contract in Ethereum. You could specify a payout schedule. I know Taproot and Bitcoin is deliberately not Turing complete to avoid buggy contracts. Will Lightning ever be able to this, or will we always need to use the APIs with code?

[Caitlin Long 🔑⚡️🟠 @CaitlinLong_]

WORLD WAKING UP to the fact that a bank deposit is an unsecured loan to a leveraged counterparty, that the FDIC insurance fund only has $128bn, that total deposits in US commercial banks=$17.6 trn, &...here's the big one: that money itself is a confidence game (always has been)🤔

[Ming Zhao @FabiusMercurius]

What is a Credit Default Swap?
(and wtf is going on with Credit Suisse?)

"Lehman-like collapse" flooded the news this week as spreads on $CS hit 2008 levels.

But first, what is a CDS spread? What # is "bad"?

Quick breakdown on what this all means and why it matters:
👇
🧵/

[__tomcusackhuang @__tomcusack]

@EricSirion Did you get my email, by any chance? I self-host email, so sometimes they go to junk. I love your Fedimint project! Would love to pick your brain on a few points if you’ve got time?

[elsirion 🔅 @EricSirion]

In cryptography academia:

Multi signature schemes: n-of-n participants need to cooperate to sign
Threshold signature schemes: t-of-n participants need to cooperate to sign

[__tomcusackhuang @__tomcusack]

@GameofTrades_ What do you make of the 10Y*SPX? It's broken out to ATHs. We've had 4 tags of the resistance levels, which usually signals a top for SPX.

[benma @_benma_]

If you wondered why Ethereum fees are high, here is a typical NFT smart contract function invocation onchain.

~80% of the data is zeroes. Booleans and uint8s are encoded using 32 (!) bytes each.

[__tomcusackhuang @__tomcusack]

@londonteacher_ A woman fell between the gaps when moving between carriages on the train.

[__tomcusackhuang @__tomcusack]

@JANUSZCZAK I loved your series on the dark ages back in 2016. What are your favourite books about that period? I’d love to learn more.

[__tomcusackhuang @__tomcusack]

@ItalyinLDN Qual è il modo migliore per ottenere un visto di coniuge UE per entrare in Italia? Mia moglie è una cittadina extra-UE, che desidera viaggiare in Italia con me (cittadino britannico)

[__tomcusackhuang @__tomcusack]

I wrote a piece on Medium about signals to watch out for for a second market crash https://t.co/4GaYtNyT18

[__tomcusackhuang @__tomcusack]

"Investors could be forgiven if they thought Tesla was in the [S&P] already. The company is bigger, ..., than every other auto component of the S&P combined. What’s more, Tesla’s market value would be just outside the top 20 companies in the entire index." https://t.co/5Pow7zzQrf

[__tomcusackhuang @__tomcusack]

Q3 has started off <0.5 on the CBOE put/call ratio again. Excessive bullishness again? https://t.co/2Jx3z0NFle

[__tomcusackhuang @__tomcusack]

The BoJ now owns 80% of all ETFs domiciled in Japan. The US is following suit, being a top 5 holder of Corporate Bonds. Central Banks may think they're helping, but they're destroying the financial markets.