Alex Feng

AI Powered Finance Exec by day Ex-Netflix, Robinhood, Google | Trading enthusiast and AI builder by night

[Alex Feng @_alexfeng_]

I've spent 20 years at the intersection of finance, strategy, and analytics at Google, Robinhood, and Netflix. I've managed P&Ls, controlled costs, and driven revenue, and those same instincts made me a better trader. I've traded my own money for 15+ years, manually. Now I'm building AI systems to do it with me.

I'll share the observations, the performance, and the build here. Also wrote a playbook for breaking into tech finance (link in bio).

[Alex Feng @_alexfeng_]

@NewsLambert The 223 bp spread is the story. Pre-pandemic it ran closer to 170 bps, so mortgage pain isn't just the Treasury at 5.14%. Elevated spreads mean rates stay high even if yields cool.

[Alex Feng @_alexfeng_]

@Barchart Worth noting the 30-year runs 220+ bps over the 10-year Treasury (5.14%), so spreads, not just yields, are doing the damage. Weekly surveys said 7.03%; the daily numbers are already above 7.25%.

[Alex Feng @_alexfeng_]

@zerohedge Beat the 615K estimate, but July was revised up to 643K, so the 6.4% gain is flattered. The real story is the mix shift: average price fell 9.1% while the median rose 0.4%. Builders racing downmarket

[Alex Feng @_alexfeng_]

August new home sales beat expectations at 684,000, up 6.4% from July, but the price numbers underneath are stranger than the headline. The average new home price fell 9.1% in a single month while the median barely moved, up 0.4% to $393,700, which means homes did not get 9% cheaper. The mix did. Builders sold smaller, cheaper homes to meet buyers where monthly payments actually pencil with 30-year mortgages back above 7%, and 52% of August sales closed below $400,000 against 46% a year earlier. Months of supply still sits at 8.5, meaning at the current sales pace it would take eight and a half months to sell everything on the market. The takeaway is that the new-build market is splitting in two: inventory is piling up while builders race downmarket, because at 7% mortgages the only buyer left is the one who needs the smaller house.

[Alex Feng @_alexfeng_]

$ON wrapped up its investor day with one clear pitch: power chips for AI data centers are the growth engine now. Management guided that segment to 50% annual growth through 2030 while automotive grows 9% and industrial 10%, so the whole company's 12 to 14% growth target is really one line doing all the work. The math worth knowing is that 50% a year compounds to five times the revenue in four years, which is how gross margin can climb from 40% toward 53% even while car chips stay sluggish, since power delivery for an AI rack carries far fatter margins than a commodity auto part. Jefferies called that 53% margin target a milestone rather than a ceiling, and Seaport just initiated with a Buy and a $100 target against a stock near $70. The plain read is that data centers run out of power before they run out of compute, and the least glamorous part of the rack keeps the best pricing.

[Alex Feng @_alexfeng_]

There are two oil prices that matter. Brent is what the rest of the world pays, and WTI is what America pays, and they usually sit $3 to $5 apart. Right now the gap is about $12. The reason is the fighting with Iran: traders are scared it could choke off the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries about a fifth of the world's oil. That fear hits Brent because Brent travels by ship through those waters, while American oil mostly stays home, so it barely moves. Think of the $12 gap as a fear meter. The wider it gets, the more the market believes the strait could actually close.

[Alex Feng @_alexfeng_]

$META is cooking!

[Mark Zuckerberg @finkd]

Here's everything I announced at Meta Connect today 👇

[Alex Feng @_alexfeng_]

@StockSavvyShay @brewmarkets crazy times we are living in...

[Alex Feng @_alexfeng_]

@NoLimitGains crazy times

[Alex Feng @_alexfeng_]

@benjamincowen crazy times...

[Alex Feng @_alexfeng_]

@KobeissiLetter If you're wondering why stocks are down today...

[Alex Feng @_alexfeng_]

If you're wondering why growth stocks are down today...

[Alex Feng @_alexfeng_]

@KobeissiLetter Insane. October hike odds jumped from 55% to 73% today, and 30-year mortgage rates are sitting near 7%

[Alex Feng @_alexfeng_]

GPT Luna is now my favorite model for basic grepping and repo analysis

[Alex Feng @_alexfeng_]

@milesdeutscher Huge cost different though!

[Alex Feng @_alexfeng_]

@Banana3Stocks Have been stacking $META!

[Alex Feng @_alexfeng_]

@CKCapitalxx Totally agree. Have been stacking!

[Alex Feng @_alexfeng_]

The S&P 500 fell 0.06 points on Tuesday, which is not a percent but points, on an index sitting at 7,764. Meanwhile the Nasdaq closed at another record, memory stocks ripped 3.5% higher, and banks dropped 1.8% after the Fed's 25bp hike. The flattest headline you'll ever see, hiding a genuinely busy tape underneath.

[Alex Feng @_alexfeng_]

This thing is amazing. Check out Muse, your personal AI agent. Redeem my code in Settings within 48 hours of joining and we'll both get 1 billion Muse tokens.

Code: 66TKB5
https://t.co/h3ilyO58wM

[Alex Feng @_alexfeng_]

$AMD just crossed $1 trillion.

Up 9.9% in a day to $615. It was a $255B company a year ago.

The kicker: this wasn't a GPU rally. Meta's Muse agent hit #1 on the App Store and the market decided CPUs matter again. $INTC says it can meet only half of demand. The agentic AI trade just rotated.