Andy Contan

DampedSpring active macro & beta @2Graybeards for
beta. Both for investor education, Brevan Howard,
Bridgewater, Salomon, Dad of 4. Go Penn, No tweet is
advice

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Persistent real growth at 3% seems inconsistent with r* at 1% being restrictive. It seems inconsistent with 2 year real yields at 1.6% being restrictive too.

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Getting boring

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Here's the chart from the new DSR

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

The greatest quote in a substack in history. Well done @agnostoxxx

“The reason for that number is in part related to the science fiction series The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy where a supercomputer calculates the answer to the question of life, the universe and everything as the number 42..We believe it’s a unique number with some special characteristics. It’s the sum of 21 plus 21…We all know that 21 is a magic — a magical number in the world of Bitcoin. There can only ever be a maximum of 21 million Bitcoin in circulation.”
As a fan of Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, I applaud such reference...

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Thanks everyone who contributed / commented on my $MSTR tweets I learned more than you could possibly imagine.

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Has anyone kept track of Michael Saylor's insider sales? Is he selling?

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Here's the whole interview on Schwab network with @OJRenick

https://t.co/Jf10n7q4kf

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Pause

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Lot being said about the lack of swap counterparties for a certain levered ETF. Some are thinking that is linear swaps and hence the demand of deep calls. BUT this misses the point.

The counterparties to the swaps that are used for ETF's allows the fund to rebalance at the closing price each day. The swaps can be added to or closed out based on the funds needs. The counterparties are then left to beat the close with their hedge. Without dealers capacity to match the close the levered ETF takes on risk of matching the close that currently they do not have. Its a mess.

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Michael Saylor is not a fool. Its the buyers he is selling to who foolish invest in something that hes selling when they could invest in something he is buying just as easily

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

5 year review.

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Fed Policy 101

The job of the Fed is not easy. The tools they have are crude. Predicting the future is hard. The economy is complex and the tools used may have varying impact. Markets themselves often undo policy lever influences or accelerate policy moves in an undesired way

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

He uses a tool he has and sees the outcome and tweaks as things ensue. Not confident leadership but also not awful.

Where things go off the rails with such an approach is that there are times when instead of asking for questions the leader must lead.

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Hey pleasure being on. Next time Macro😅

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Michael Saylor would be irresponsible to stop selling claims on his assets for 2.5x what they are worth. Regardless of the use of proceeds

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Financials are beasts lifting themselves and RTY. Don't trade smalls or sectors but worth pointing out the Price to Book matters for banks. When it gets near the dotted lines nothing good happens in the next year. As to non bank financials (included in XLF)they are pretty lofty

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

The Santa rally may be different this year. Anyone get it?

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Sold out immediately and reoffered 5x higher on eBay. The fed needs to hike rates

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Wordle 1,255 5/6*

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Rhymes. 🤬