David del Val

LSE economic historian and senior economist at @CABK_Research. Usual disclaimers apply.

[Atlético de Madrid @Atleti]

No, el Atlético de Madrid nunca haría algo así. Sin embargo, en los últimos meses venimos sufriendo una campaña de acoso y derribo sobre uno de nuestros jugadores. Filtraciones interesadas, 'fake news', faltas continuas de respeto, la versión culé de la maquinaria inventando historietas, llamadas antes de enfrentamientos directos... Pero claro, a nosotros tampoco se nos ocurriría tener a sueldo al vicepresidente de los árbitros o recurrir a favores políticos para inscribir a jugadores. RESPETO y VALORES.

[Atlético de Madrid @Atleti]

HERE WE GO! Hemos enviado un fax al @FCBarcelona_es con nuestra oferta de traspaso: 4 entradas para el concierto de Bad Bunny de mañana, una suscripción anual al ABC y una bolsa de pipas. Esperamos ansiosos la respuesta para preparar el ‘announce’.

[Eamon Javers @EamonJavers]

One big point amid all the headlines: I was texting with press secretary Karoline Leavitt during the event and she confirms that the 34 percent tariff on China is ON TOP of the previous 20 percent. So that means the rate on China will be *54* percent when these tariffs take effect.

[David del Val @_delVal]

@JAL_1966 @MAECgob @CancilleriaCol @minturgob @MincomercioCo @Turespana_ @ICEX_ Embajador, no promocione ud. a la empresa que peor representa a la marca España, por Dios. La compañía que el regulador aéreo presenta como la más impuntual y que a más pasajeros maltrata. Todo un récord teniendo en cuenta su pequeño tamaño

https://t.co/tsjJuhZUtI

[David del Val @_delVal]

@dumek_turbay Alcalde, no se asocie ud. con piratas. Cartagena tiene un pasado repeliéndoles. Plus Ultra es la aerolínea que más maltrata a los pasajeros. No lo digo yo, lo asevera el informe del regulador aéreo español. La compañía con más quejas de largo.

https://t.co/tsjJui0sjg

[Oliver Rakau @OliverRakau]

A little disappointed that Bloomberg and John Authers retell this myth ignoring the ECB's depo cuts in 2014, 15 and 19 as well as the additional QE in that period... but it is probably too nice a story not to tell.

[Mark Kersten || @markkersten.bsky.social @MarkKersten]

In a terrible take that makes numerous easily avoidable mistakes, @TheEconomist says: "the ICC should prosecute only when states are 'unwilling or unable to do so genuinely'. Israel is a democracy with an independent judiciary."

This is legally & factually incorrect. Short 🧵👇

[Dani Rodrik @rodrikdani]

I’m puzzled by all the fretting about China trade shock 2.0. First, a subsidy war in EVs and batteries is actually a good thing since there is no global carbon tax. Second, we are no longer in hyperglobalization. Importing countries are free to respond. Remember the Japanese trade shock of the 1980s? US and Europe negotiated VERs with Japan, and everyone did fine. As long as governments don’t go crazy and treat this as real war, lots of solutions are possible. And we’ll get the climate benefits on top.

[David del Val @_delVal]

@lancearmstrong @DannyDuncan69 Lance, your unethical approach to sports and life was never just sheer competitiveness. It was a toxic mentality that did not bring any victories for you or the sport.

[David del Val @_delVal]

@nachoalvarez_ Felicidades por tu valentía y gracias por tanto (y tan buen) trabajo estos años. Un fuerte abrazo!

[David del Val @_delVal]

@JMAafi @Afi_es @Afi_Research Un último empujoncito de los BBCC para doblegar definitivamente la inflación ahora que las turbulencias financieras se han disipado... Y un poquito más cerca de que el tropiezo del ciclo termine en caída 😅

[David del Val @_delVal]

So it turns out that CS AT1 bonds absorption mechanism always was a Principal Write Down subject to supervisory judgement, but we chose to simplify all CoCos as just "senior to equity"... ah, the perks of oversimplified nuanced stuff!

[Casino Capital @CasinoCapital]

How can AT1 bonds be zero'd when they're more senior than equity which is getting paid 2bn, you ask?

Because bondholders agreed they could be.

Here's the section in the $CS 9.75% AT1 prospectus (don't worry if you weren't aware, half the holders prob haven't read this either):

[David del Val @_delVal]

4) The effect though differs greatly by sector:
- It's greater in those sectors that are capital-light and knowledge-intensive, especially those where 🇨🇳 does not lead.
- It's even negative in capital-intensive sectors where it's all about "throwing money" and 🇨🇳 is the 🌏 leader

[David del Val @_delVal]

1) A primer on the cost of deglobalization. A Chinese study confirms the effects we would expect from US sanctions on Chinese innovation. A little thread 🧵

https://t.co/07LYAHJCIU

[David del Val @_delVal]

3) Despite that higher cost, given the international tech race, and especially Chinese hawkish military stance, patents grow because there is even more domestic R&D (there's some sort of import substitution on patents).

[David del Val @_delVal]

@BarkowConsult @RafaelMentges @LHSummers you should ask Barkow's AI Twitter-management company for a quote. They sure won't risk oversimplifying stuff 🤪

[David del Val @_delVal]

@BarkowConsult @RafaelMentges