Omg, permabear Jeremy Grantham and Joe Kernen went AT IT on CNBC today.
Must watch TV.
Even got Jeremy to say bullshit on live tv lol.
But good on Joe for calling him out.
if @elonmusk paid 100% of his net worth ($1.4 trillion) as a tax it would only cover federal government spending for 77 days. this isn’t a tax problem…
I finally understand what Machiavelli meant when he said, “Never play fair in a game where others cheat.” It doesn’t mean become evil. It means stop being naive. Stop bringing honesty to people who study manipulation, stop giving access to people who weaponize closeness, and stop expecting clean hands from people who already showed you they’ll throw dirt. Sometimes wisdom is not revenge. Sometimes wisdom is learning the rules of the room before the room uses your goodness against you.
'This week’s release of the American Association of Individual Investors survey resulted in 30.4% of respondents reporting bullish sentiment, tied for the lowest level of bullishness this year (tied with the March 19th release). Not only that, but the percentage of respondents reporting bearish sentiment ticked up to 47.7%, the highest since April 2nd.' @bespokeinvest
Left America in 2019. Since 2022, I’ve been going back 5–7 times a year. Quick thoughts during my first SF trip in a while:
The divergence between America and the rest of the world has now become impossible to ignore. America’s trifecta of: 1) innovation engine of commercially viable frontier tech; 2) unparalleled capital markets liquidity/maturity; and 3) increasingly productive top talent continue to pull ahead and is creating an explosion of productivity, innovation and wealth that simply isn't happening elsewhere at these speeds.
Flying back to Eurasia now feels like stepping into a time machine - with Developed nations stagnating, and Developing ones still trying to catch up.
China is seeing massive capital outflows:
An estimated $1 trillion in capital flowed out of China in 2025, the largest annual outflow since records began in 2006.
Capital outflows have more than DOUBLED since 2021.
This comes as Chinese investors have moved funds into overseas equities through offshore brokers, particularly into the US and Hong Kong markets.
In response, China imposed restrictions on cross-border stock trading on May 22nd, ordering all illegal accounts to be liquidated within 2 years.
Furthermore, the country fined three offshore online brokers, Hong Kong-based Futu, Singapore-based Tiger Brokers and Longbridge Securities, a combined $330 million for offering Chinese investors access to foreign stock markets without regulatory approval.
China is tightening capital controls as outflows intensify.
Pattern Recognition is also the form of intelligence that causes the most stress.
You will see things that others do not.
You'll feel crazy.
Things will be *so obvious* to you, and others will just deny it.
Insane stat of the day: California almonds use roughly 3–5.5 million acre-feet of water per year, depending on methodology.
That's ~4-7x more water than all data centers in North America used combined in 2025.
Understand: people will constantly attack you in life. One of their main weapons will be to instill in you doubts about yourself. They will often disguise this as their objective opinion, but invariably it has a political purpose, they want to keep you down.
At times, the joy that life attacks me with is unbearable and leads to gasping hysterical laughter. I find myself completely out of control and wonder how could life could surprise me again and again and again, so completely. How could a man be a cynic? It is a sin.
As someone recently told me: If you close your eyes and think hard about how much you hate the US, then you can believe almost anything that has to do with the US losing its global superpower status.
1) The #US has the global reserve currency, the #USD, which is only strengthening its dominance.
2) The US has the largest and most capable military force (operational with experience) by far.
3) The US is the largest, most sophisticated, and most liquid capital market in the world. #China needs capital controls to survive.
4) The US has the largest, strongest, and most resilient economy in the World.
5) Geographically, the US is the most gifted area/continent in terms of terrain and resources.
6) The US banking system is the most robust right now in the world. If you think the US was in a bad place during the GFC in 2008, check out China’s banking system today. At least 3x worse than what the U.S. looked like in 2008.
7) If you ask anyone if they would rather migrate to the US or China, 99.9% would say the US. I wonder why that’s the case.
8) Yes, the U.S. lost its industrial superiority during the last 20 years, mostly because the U.S. democratic party gave it away, but it’s gaining it back.
9) In the #AI race, it’s clear that the US is at least 2 steps ahead of China (#mythos)
10) If command and control economies were superior, then the U.S. would not have won the Cold War.
11) This brings us to @realDonaldTrump.
The media has underestimated him for years. Not because he is above criticism. Not because the case against him lacks merit. And not because you have to be a supporter to acknowledge it.
The error is different. Too many people still confuse Trump’s style with a lack of strategic instinct. That is a mistake.
A 79-year-old president who lost an election, absorbed every form of political and legal pressure, came back to run again, survived an assassination attempt, stood up bleeding, and then returned to win again is not a figure that should be analyzed casually.
Whatever one thinks of him morally or politically, he has unusual resilience, stamina, and instinct for attention. He has used the same method for years. Provoke the media. Absorb the attention. Turn the reaction into leverage.
This does not make him infallible. It does mean he should not be underestimated.