Jia

[WarrenVsCCP | 🇺🇸🇹🇼🇺🇸 @WarrenVsCCP]

China🇨🇳’s space mission decided not to go to space; instead, it visited a nearby mountain and blew up.

[Jia @_j1ac]

I don’t even watch football like that but USA!!! GOALLLLLLLLLLLL

[Vivek Sen @Vivek4real_]

SAM ALTMAN WATCHING CHATGPT HALLUCINATE LIVE ON STAGE IS THE FUNNIEST THING I'VE SEEN ALL WEEK.

THE CEO OF OPENAI, ON STAGE, IN FRONT OF EVERYONE, WATCHING HIS OWN AI JUST MAKE THINGS UP IN REAL TIME.

AND HIS FACE SAYS IT ALL.

THIS IS THE GUY TELLING US AGI IS COMING SOON BTW.

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

David Friedberg on how a collapsing dollar leads to the rise of socialism

If you own assets as the dollar devalues and everything inflates in value, our asset prices go up. We get wealthier and wealthier. The majority of Americans do not own assets. They are net asset negative

[Jia @_j1ac]

YouTube needs an AI factcheck feature asap. So many clickbait and misleading content.

[Brivael Le Pogam @brivael]

Beaucoup de figures de gauche, aux US comme en Europe, qualifient Musk d'extrême droite. Certains vont jusqu'au mot « nazi ».

J'ai fait l'inverse de l'accusation : lire avant de juger. Deux biographies. Des dizaines d'heures d'interviews et de documentaires. Zéro once de racisme détectée.

Ce que j'ai trouvé, c'est une obsession constante pour la liberté : rachat de Twitter au nom de la liberté d'expression, réintégration des comptes bannis, publication des Twitter Files, ouverture du code de l'algorithme, open-source de Grok, brevets Tesla libérés en 2014, Starlink rallumé pour les Iraniens coupés du net pendant les manifestations et pour l'Ukraine, refus répété des demandes de censure étatiques.

Maintenant, faisons l'expérience de pensée que ses accusateurs ne font jamais. Imaginez que Musk soit réellement evil.

Cet homme possède un réseau de satellites qui couvre la planète, soit une capacité de surveillance quasi totale. Il possède la place publique numérique la plus influente du monde. Il possède la première fortune à 1000 milliards de l'Histoire, depuis l'IPO de SpaceX le 12 juin. Aucun individu n'a jamais concentré autant de leviers.

Un Musk réellement malveillant, avec ça dans les mains, ne tolérerait pas une seconde qu'on le traite de nazi H24 sur sa propre plateforme. Il bannirait. Il surveillerait. Il écraserait. On serait déjà dans 1984.

Or regardez la réalité : les comptes qui l'accusent de nazisme tweetent toujours. Tous les jours. Sans entrave. Sur son réseau. Avec son algorithme. La dystopie totalitaire qu'on lui prête se démontre par l'absence du goulag.

Voilà le retournement. 1984 le contrôle de la parole, la surveillance de masse, la désignation publique des hérétiques ce n'est pas son projet. C'est le fantasme de ceux qui l'accusent. L'accusation décrit toujours l'accusateur.

C'est du Girard à l'état pur : on désigne un bouc émissaire pour ne pas voir le mécanisme qu'on porte soi-même. Celui qui hurle « nazi » rêve souvent, en silence, du pouvoir de bannir, de ficher, de faire taire.

L'homme qui aurait tous les moyens de bâtir 1984 est précisément celui qui laisse ses pires détracteurs parler. Demandez-vous qui, dans cette histoire, rêve vraiment du télécran.

[EndGame Macro @onechancefreedm]

Warsh Just Changed Fed Posture

Today’s meeting was a reset of how the Fed communicates, uses data, thinks about inflation, and manages market expectations.

The Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, but the real move was institutional. Warsh shortened the statement, removed guidance, withheld his dot plot, and launched task forces on communications, the balance sheet, data, productivity, jobs, and inflation.

Markets wanted reassurance that cuts would eventually arrive. Warsh gave them the opposite. He held steady while making clear the Fed does not want to be trapped by its own language.

Forward Guidance Became Strategic Leakage

Forward guidance no longer just informs investors. It tells hedge funds, foreign central banks, commodity producers, Treasury counterparties, and rivals how the dollar issuer may move before it moves. In a calm world, that reduces volatility. In this world, it gives away the playbook.

Warsh may be removing guidance because the next phase requires surprise. If inflation stays sticky as the energy shock spreads into services, wages, utilities, shipping, and expectations, he may need to hold higher or threaten hikes. But if CRE, banks, Treasury liquidity, the yen, dollar funding, labor, or credit breaks, the Fed may need to provide liquidity fast.

Guidance makes that harder because every move gets judged against a pre announced path. Ambiguity lets the Fed run two policies at once. Publicly, it can defend price stability and keep rates restrictive. Under the hood, it can keep liquidity ready through reserves, repo, and dollar plumbing.

The Dollar

The darker read is that they may not need to intentionally collapse the world. They only need to withhold relief long enough for the dollar shortage to do the disciplining.

Keep rates higher than the rest of the world can comfortably absorb. Let dollar borrowers, emerging markets, Japan, Europe, commodity importers, and weak foreign balance sheets feel the squeeze. Then, as stress rises, capital rushes back into the deepest collateral market on earth. U.S. Treasuries.

That forced bid can bring U.S. yields down organically, without the Fed openly restarting QE or rushing into cuts. The world does the easing by panicking into Treasuries.

Then the question becomes who gets access to dollars, through what channel, and on what terms. That is where swap lines, repo facilities, Treasury collateral, and dollar liquidity become tools of hierarchy. Core allies get cleaner access. Others get conditional, expensive, or indirect access.

That is financial statecraft. You do not need to openly weaponize the system if everyone still has to come back through your door.

Price Stability And Power

Warsh framed inflation as a multi year credibility problem, not a temporary oil shock. Inflation has been above the Fed’s 2% goal for more than five years, and he wants to prove the Fed can still defend that line.

If the world believes the U.S. will tolerate inflation to ease debt or protect asset prices, the dollar system weakens. By refusing to rush toward cuts, Warsh is defending more than a domestic inflation target. He is defending the dollar’s role at the center of global finance.

My Take

The Fed is not cutting because it does not want to validate the idea that every slowdown gets rescued. It is not hiking because the economy is fragile beneath the surface. So it is choosing controlled pressure.

Hold rates. Remove guidance. Keep liquidity ready. Let uncertainty tighten conditions. Force markets to price risk again. If the stress gets bad enough, capital runs back into Treasuries and the U.S. regains room to cut from a position of strength.

Forward guidance is not just a domestic market tool anymore. It is geopolitical intelligence. Warsh is taking that intelligence off the table.

The cost is households, borrowers, housing, credit, and small businesses absorbing more pain before the Fed admits the growth damage is large enough to matter.

[Jia @_j1ac]

Can’t wait for Elon to become Darth Vader

[Jia @_j1ac]

First time flying Flair Airlines. Every seat is first class from the first row to the last 😂 #equality #nodiscrimination #inclusion

[Jia @_j1ac]

Can’t wait for autonomous vehicles to take over uber drivers.

[Jia @_j1ac]

@ChrisCamillo This video giving bitconnect vibes from crypto alt coin era

[Flo Crivello @Altimor]

The craziest part isn’t that it took 15y and $11B (more than SpaceX has ever raised) to lay 0.3 mi of tracks

The craziest part is that they *tweeted proudly about it.*

These institutions are on the Dunning Kruger peak: too incompetent to even realize how incompetent they are.

[Jia @_j1ac]

This Pineapple Express weather in SF 👌😙

[Jia @_j1ac]

Djokovic getting smashed by Sinner rn!! 😱😱😱 @AustralianOpen

[Jia @_j1ac]

@dannyomo @BedbugsNFT @EuphoricSupply Hahah I got pineapple vibes for some reason!!

[Jia @_j1ac]

@xmichellechin BING BONG! 💯💯💯

[Dr. Parik Patel, BA, CFA, ACCA Esq. @ParikPatelCFA]

You’ve just taken over a country. Do you?

a) fix the treasury
b) rebuild the army
c) ride bumper cars with an m-16

[Jia @_j1ac]

@lamtran415 Fosho

[Jia @_j1ac]

@xmichellechin DM asap. Currently accepting lunch sugar babies 😍

[Jia @_j1ac]

LETS FUCKING GOOOOO!!! #UFC257 @TheNotoriousMMA