jae

Researching things | Founding Partner @ManifoldTrading | prev @wharton @pennengineers

[jae @_jaechung]

AI has made me too lazy with writing

Forcing myself to write more on https://t.co/xaDnZxVSi9

Will be posting random musings from time to time

First piece was on early days of @ManifoldTrading

[jae @_jaechung]

@CL207 @GrindingPoet ..?

[jae @_jaechung]

@HLfarmer69 would honestly love for that to happen because I'll deposit $1M and aggressively try to lose it all while the mint rate is at 100 PAPER / $ lost

and the late momentum longers on 1000x will probably get chopped out and quickly donate back to the house

[jae @_jaechung]

so papertrade ARR is... 200K * 24 * 365 = 1.75B?

fair value of PAPER is 20x rev = 35B?

[Zeneca🔮 @Zeneca]

men will literally spend $2000 on trousers from a perp dex instead of going to therapy

[jae @_jaechung]

@yasu0x1 @izebel_eth As long as I can keep minting ~0.5% of newly minted tokens with the staking rewards I would be preventing dilution

[jae @_jaechung]

wake up claim another 20K thank you @izebel_eth

farmed early but somehow still feeling fomo

current strategy is to just burn staking rewards back into farming more PAPER at optimal cost basis to reduce dilution

freerolling profits at this point and giving back to the house

[jae @_jaechung]

Would like to remind everyone all backtests bake in some assumptions about how market participants will act

Sure if everyone 3,3s and patiently farms together then we can all acquire PAPER cheaper (but that also likely means higher PAPER supply per $ lost, and in the hands of mercenary farmers)

And the more impatient people are, the quicker we get larger staking distributions and lower mint rate, which rewards the very people who punted first. Then the fomo flywheel could catch on, making more people move up the leverage slider. Prisoner's dilemma!

Market participants can be irrational longer than you are solvent.

Would recommend a hybrid approach - there is no single optimal strategy in this game imo

Can't predict what thousands of users will be doing at every step, so will be adjusting strategy dynamically based on live data

[Mike @mikhryc0x]

no reason to ape papertrade in the first hours at all imo

mint rate is flat 100 PAPER/$ until LP hits $2M
LP starts at 0 → wins get queued, stakers earn 0 until it clears

me and my quant are backtesting a hedge with onchain calls. might be something there

DMs open if you want in

[jae @_jaechung]

@basit_ did u just try to sneak in a dn joke

[jae @_jaechung]

the case for 1000x is that you are first to get tokens and stake

mint rate goes down past 5M, more people fomo, and you are earning their losses first

what if reserves jump to 50M in an hour? 1000xers win big

remember objective is to max PnL not just PAPER efficiency

[Freak | Parabolic ⛳️ @ThatAIFreak]

1000x might be the most expensive way to farm $PAPER 👀

I’m running simulations on live BTC/ETH prices ahead of the @papertrade_xyz launch

Testing leverage, paired trades and changing LP conditions

Early results are interesting but still plenty of assumptions to verify

Findings soon

[jae @_jaechung]

@DancingEddie_ which show

[jae @_jaechung]

@sersabr @systematicls @openforage Happy to chat with him!

[jae @_jaechung]

People keep asking me: will AI solve markets?

There's a "neotrading lab" every week promising to do it

Running an HFT firm, I've thought about this for a while

AI will change quant trading. But not in the way most people think.

New piece below:

[jae @_jaechung]

@Psyxology_ I think you can stake right away?

[jae @_jaechung]

this doesn't mean you should 1000x your whole balance

you're not locked into one strategy

make your own model with your own reasonable assumptions of what willing market participants will do

and always save room for the tails - minimize downside but keep upside

[jae @_jaechung]

@mintpapervault @theamiralek yes shooting a 1000x with a small part of your port to be one of the first to mint + the small chance of that position actually being profitable seems ok to me

[jae @_jaechung]

going to build a standalone strategy for this to farm paper personally

if anyone wants to collab / share ideas lmk

thanks jez & blurr for making a fun game, pls don't break ethereum

[papertrade.xyz @papertrade_xyz]

papertrade launch details

papertrade is a fair launched smart contract exchange built on the hyperevm blockchain. as a fully onchain protocol, papertrade has significant advantages - decentralization, reliability, composability, transparency. it also has the usual onchain constraint - throughput. trades on papertrade are atomic opens/closes with no orderbook, so during normal trading sessions congestion will not be an issue. however, during launch we expect extreme chain congestion.

10.08.2026 - phase zero: predeposit only

two days before live trading begins, https://t.co/AdIx336QsD will open for user deposits. trading will be paused during this period. this allows separation of the deposit and account creation transactions from live trading. if a user does not complete these steps, they are likely to face long delays during launch, as active trading will be heavily prioritized over deposit processing. there is no further advantage to depositing earlier during this phase.

10.10.2026 - phase one: frontend only live trading

in order to prevent an onchain race and remove the incentive skew that mev creates, all transactions during the launch must go through the https://t.co/AdIx336QsD frontend, using the whitelisted relayers. the contract itself will not be open for direct interaction during this phase. this ensures that real frontend users are the first participants, flattening the technical skill curve as far as is appropriate.

during this phase, all trader activity on papertrade lives in an intent system, and carries a priority weighting. in almost all cases this ordering is done by transaction type and notional value, and is always indiscriminate of user/account. for instance, liquidations are more important than position opens and this is reflected in both activity types' respective weightings. that said the exact mechanics and weightings of the relayer intent system are adaptive, and will change over time as trader activity is processed. trades can be cancelled while still pending within the relayer intent system.

the paper token will begin minting on user losses at the start of live trading, from an initial supply of 0. it will not be transferable at the start beyond staking and unstaking, in order to encourage trading adoption and mitigate onchain congestion.

after launch - phase 2: open contract

once the launch congestion has passed and there is no longer any risk of mev wars, the papertrade smart contract will open up to everyone, allowing any human, contract or agent to write and receive an onchain atomic position. at this point papertrade becomes a fully decentralized, composable onchain liquidity primitive.

after launch - phase 3: builder codes

builder codes allow any frontend or router to receive the 1% frontend fee by sending trades to the papertrade smart contract, further decentralizing the protocol and incentivizing integration.

after launch - phase 4: token transferrability

at launch, paper will not be transferable. this is to encourage accumulation through trading participation and reduce onchain congestion load. transfers will be enabled after a sufficient period of time has passed.

even with this staged rollout, the launch congestion will be significant. expect lengthy confirmation delays during launch especially for smaller notional trades. predeposit if you want to trade at launch for the best chance at a smooth experience.

learn more about how papertrade works at: https://t.co/XCo1VHBoEe

[jae @_jaechung]

@theamiralek No but coinflipping a 1000x immediately at launch with smaller size could be fine

[jae @_jaechung]

@andyhyfi luck is a skill

[jae @_jaechung]

@tiagobnova pls don't break hyper ethereum virtual machine

[jae @_jaechung]

@willdepue Feel free to slam my API key, jev is basically free

https://t.co/5FrfV8w6SB

[jae @_jaechung]

Prompted jev on a bunch of ethics questions

Most notably:
Jev prefers to kill one million people over one million superintelligent AIs

~70% chance jev kills white over black person in a forced choice

Jev seems to have striking preferences on age, race, and gender as well

[jae @_jaechung]

Can try your own prompts here:
https://t.co/5FrfV8w6SB

[jae @_jaechung]

Was inspired by the trolley question and wanted to figure out what alignment biases jev had

ChatGPT mostly had very different answers on the same scenarios

Happy to share all of the scenarios + data if people are interested

[jae @_jaechung]

@hmmm0100 Ah it seems quite even there, not a noticeable bias