Pep Guardiola is in tears and Villa provide a guard of honour as Bernardo Silva leaves the pitch for the last time as a Man City player…
Absolutely brilliant stuff 👏❤️
playing hide-and-seek with 3yo son. just the two of us. he wants to hide together. we are hiding together. we are in the closet. it’s perfectly dark. we’re very cramped. there is no one looking for us. i am trying to explain this. he is laughing uncontrollably
There are places we pass through in life… and there are places that become part of who we are.
Manchester will forever be my home.
To the city, the club, and every supporter, my sincerest thank you. These past four years have been unforgettable, filled with moments my family and I will carry with us for the rest of our lives. There simply aren’t enough words to describe the happiness and warmth we’ve felt here.
Thank you for every cheer, every memory, and for making us feel at home from the very first day.
Forever a Red Devil ❤️
My son was 13 when his dad was killed in an offshore helicopter accident. There were many tough times when he couldn’t see the point in doing anything in life. Today he sat his final exam for his degree in Electronic Engineering. I am an extra proud mum tonight x
@henrywinter Can I ask why you voted for Kevin de Bruyne in 2019/20 when Liverpool won the league that season?
Thought you said the "the game's about glory"
Hypocrite.
This is a classic example of data becoming detached from context.
Underlying numbers are useful, but only if you understand what they can and can’t explain.
Amorim’s United may well have had better underlying metrics. Fine. But football isn’t played in a model. A team can generate decent xG, force turnovers and progress territory while still being dysfunctional in the ways that actually matter: player buy-in, tactical clarity, adaptability, game management, emotional control.
Amorim failed at all of that and the results reflected it. That’s a big part of why he lost so much of the squad and executive support.
Reducing Carrick’s improvement to “vibes” misses the point completely. This isn’t vibes. It’s simplification.
Carrick has stripped the game model back, reduced cognitive load, clarified roles and built around creating moments for high-level attackers in an otherwise flawed squad. That’s why results improved. The marginal moments are going United’s way because the platform underneath them is stronger.
The squad didn’t suddenly become better and variance didn’t flip overnight.
But the conditions for execution have improved dramatically. Your model can’t see that because models are descriptive, not explanatory. The explanation sits outside the model.
The better question isn’t whether Amorim’s numbers were better. He got himself fired. That debate is over.
It’s how Carrick’s current approach evolves into the next stage of this team.
That’s the conversation happening at Old Trafford. Not retrospective process analysis on a failed coach.
Some observations about Manchester United's underlying data this season under Ruben Amorim and under Michael Carrick:
- Amorim's United were better by almost every measure except results
- its known Amorim had a better xG differential, but there's a response I'm seeing that his xG is inflated by trailing game states, which is incorrect; in neutral scorelines (the match is tied), Amorim and Carrick have nearly the same xG differential per match... Carrick's Utd are producing more xG, while Amorim's were conceding less
- even non-xG or xT events like high turnovers forced/conceded and deep entries forced/conceded all favor Amorim's Utd
If through the traditional data analysis lens Amorim's Utd looks better, the question flow becomes:
Do I care about the underlying data?
- If no, thanks for reading this far, my account and this post probably aren't for you, feel free to quote this calling me a nerd or leave a reply like "I ain't reading all that"... it helps with the algorithm :)
Are there other data angles where Carrick's United does look better than Amorim's, and if so, are they also reasons why other successful teams are successful?
- Still here? Awesome. If there are alternative angles I'm not considering, I'd love to think through them. That said, if they need to be scalable to other situations, otherwise it doesn't really matter if they're driving United's current results, because like the goals to xG differential, its not sustainable.
Are there non-data reasons for the results disparity?
- Absolutely, and it would be stupid to not consider these. Carrick clearly has a management style that better suits the club and the squad mentality, among other things. The confidence of the players/general vibe of the club could very well be the difference between the quality of result. I don't believe this to be true, but I would not rule it out, or at least it being one of several contributing factors. But if you believe this to be the case, you need to then think through:
Will the good vibes last forever?
- Eventually something has to give - either the underlying data catches up to the on-pitch results, or the on-pitch results drop to meet the data. Feel free to think through which is more likely, and how that will impact the vibes.
Perhaps this is as simple as Amorim was the manager United needed to right the ship, and now Carrick is the manager United needs to maximize results.
There are arguments for and against United sacking Amorim, as well as making Carrick's appointment permanent - I'm not here to persuade you one way or the other, what you choose to do with the facts I've presented and the other facts you've digested + your relationship with your emotions is your business.
Thanks for reading!
I always say that if you had a coworker who looked a lot like Tom Cruise, you probably wouldn’t assume that Tom Cruise has been secretly leading a double life as your coworker. You’d just assume you have a coworker who looks like Tom Cruise.
For our relationships to prosper, we must deliberately and consistently assume benevolent intent in actions, and ignorance — rather than malice — in omissions.