macro analyst

discretionary macro tradoor sharing info from proprietary tools

[macro analyst @_macroanalyst]

Here's my PnL:

It would be easy to quote tweet this with “look at my PnL, here’s why you should listen to me, I’m always going to be right.” But that’s the flaw in this view, and the flaw in this tweet.

People are wrong all the time. Even the best. The ones who are the most right should be the most willing to have their views stress tested, not hide behind their track record as a shield.

[david @sdav1986]

You should only listen to people on twitter who have generated > 100m p&l (or whatever other arbitrary threshold) in the particular corner of the market they‘re talking about. Ignore the rest. In particular analysts, product pushers, content sellers, journalists etc

[Dear Self. @Dearme2_]

Until death, all defeat is psychological.

[macro analyst @_macroanalyst]

It seems like most single PM spinouts fail because the skills that make someone a great platform PM don’t translate well into running an independent fund. At a place like Citadel or P72, the PM benefits from:

1. institutional risk controls
2. data infrastructure
3. execution
4. guardrails that quietly account for a huge share of their edge

Once they leave, they lose that entire ecosystem while taking on new responsibilities they’ve never had before like:
1. fundraising
2. hiring
3. operations
4. running a broader mandate to justify billions in AUM.

On top of that, fundamental L/S equity is a much tougher game today, capacity is limited, and performance tends to suffer when PMs are forced to scale past their natural sweet spot. Put all of that together and it’s not surprising the failure rate is so high.

[edmond @nstlgiaxpress]

At the end W. David Marx's Status and Culture, he describes our current state of culture as being defined by 'omnivore tastes'. "The most masterly wardrobes mix vintage Givenchy with Uniqlo" he says. I think this manifests in these 'mysterious source of income' people who, by virtue of crypto, grifting, or talent, become wealthy, but due to the collapsing of status signals, become utterly impossible to visually place on a hierarchy. Where did the money come from? Is it generational wealth? Is it credit card debt? Are they actually broke? Nobody knows!

[Geoff Wilt @geoffwilt]

I don’t know a single person who believes the future is going to be better than the past, and the reason is the spread of this kind of psychocapitalist technofascist ideology. the project of humanity in the 21st century should be ridding the world of it by any means necessary.

[Katherine Boyle @KTmBoyle]

Every pre-school teacher in America should be required to watch this video of Alex Karp being completely unable to sit still in his chair.

[FischerKing @FischerKing64]

The ‘intelligent psychopath’ you see in fiction is rare. Hannibal Lecter is mostly a fiction. One of the most ‘successful’ serial killers Gary Ridgeway - killed probably 90-100 women - has an IQ of 82. It’s obvious he’s dumb in his interviews - available online.

[macro analyst @_macroanalyst]

@minordissent What a pathetic argument. Imagine thinking that how much money you make or how many material assets you own is the measure by which quality and satisfaction of life should be measured.

[Rebecca Valentine @defnotbeka]

i think it's really funny that these designs were so successful at their mission of inspiring awe that you now get people like this

[Dan Burmawi @DanBurmawy]

Yesterday, I took an Uber in New York. The driver was an Egyptian Muslim who has been living in the U.S. for 35 years.

He heard me speaking Arabic on the phone, which led to a conversation about how great America is and how, as a foreign-born citizen, he’s treated equally.

I explained to him how Islamic countries could reach the level of freedom and prosperity the U.S. enjoys, and I mentioned how Christians in Egypt live as second-class citizens and face persecution.

Since he had just praised how equally he’s treated in America, I expected him to agree with me. Instead, he became defensive, justifying the persecution of Christians in Egypt, and went on to say that Egypt should apply Islam and Sharia more fully, claiming it’s “Islamic in name only.”

Thirty-five years in a liberal democracy, yet he still can’t imagine governance apart from Islam, even while enjoying the benefits of an infidel, non-Islamic system.

Sadly, Muslims will always embrace democracy only as a vehicle to serve their interests, until they can make Islam the law of the land.

[Air Katakana @airkatakana]

The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes, ears, and biology. It was their final, most essential command.

[Addie @Aderaido]

No, landshark has covered this

[macro analyst @_macroanalyst]

Neither. Get him into microcap investing and teach him why that’s one of the few corners of public markets where an edge still exists. In microcaps, inefficiencies are real: limited analyst coverage, small float, and informational gaps create opportunities for investors who actually do the work. He’ll learn to read filings, evaluate management, and understand how liquidity, governance, and business fundamentals drive value. It’s slower, quieter, and harder, but that’s where skill matters more than hype.

[macro analyst @_macroanalyst]

@AdithiaKusno

[macro analyst @_macroanalyst]

Hi Adithia. Do you track Hedgeye and its CEO Keith McCullough? I think they’re the best macro research firm, and they suggest Quad 2 in Q4 this year (inflation, growth higher) and then Quad 1 in Q1 next year (growth higher, inflation lower).

This Q1 would coincide with SPX mkt top, right?

[macro analyst @_macroanalyst]

@EPBResearch Best of luck and wishing you a speedy recovery!

[macro analyst @_macroanalyst]

Exactly. As @biancoresearch notes, if breakeven job growth is now near 0–50k and immigration flows are cooling, a softer payroll print does not automatically mean the labor market is collapsing. It just reflects slower population growth and lower replacement needs. Weak-looking numbers may still be consistent with stability.

[macro analyst @_macroanalyst]

Good point. Permits are flashing caution but margins are still high, which is why builders have held payrolls steady so far. As @EPBResearch notes, if the economy slows and demand softens, those fat margins can compress quickly. When that happens, employment can drop sharply as builders protect cash flow.

But so far, looks like homebuilder margins are at or above pre COVID levels.

[macro analyst @_macroanalyst]

Exactly right. The Fed can trim the overnight rate, but mortgage costs live and die by the long end of the curve. As long as the 10-year Treasury stays elevated above 4%, mortgage-backed securities will keep repricing higher and lenders will protect their spreads. Cuts at the front don’t change that.

Heavy Treasury issuance, persistent inflation risk, and investors demanding term premium all keep pressure on the 10-year. Until those forces ease or growth weakens enough to drive a true bond bid, mortgage rates will stay sticky. A headline cut is meaningless if the long end refuses to follow.