Pattern recognition in trading is the art of identifying repetitive formations or trends in price charts to anticipate future movements.
$NVDA demonstrated this perfectly with its recent Head and Shoulders pattern.
A couple weeks ago I shared this head and shoulders forming on $NVDA
Price has now completed the measured move almost perfectly, finding support right around the 200D MA and the high-volume node
Now I'm seeing low volume as price tests support, momentum beginning to stabilize, and early signs of bullish divergence starting to develop
At the same time, we're still below the Hypertrend, below the 21W MA, and OBV continues to trend lower
To me there are two high probability paths from here:
1/ Buyers step in around the 200D MA, reclaim~$200, and price starts working through the low-volume gap above in a recovery bounce
2/ The 200D MA fails, turns into resistance, and price bleeds into the next major volume node around ~$180
The next few sessions should tell us which side is actually in control
Hypertrend bearish showing signs of continued downside until bids come back in. With confluence pointing towards that 200D / volume node that would be where I would see $NVDA attempt to base and find more buyers
Seeing a potential head and shoulder form here on $NVDA
If this resolves lower, the measured move points back toward the 200D MA which also happens to align with a major volume node
Makes me wonder if the market is starting to care more about valuation than the AI narrative
$ENPH monthly looks like a clean macro character shift here
> Multi-year downtrend channel
> Capitulation phase
> Now reclaiming structure with momentum expansion
Feels like investors are positioning for the next phase of the AI trade
> power infra
> energy scarcity
IMO the market narra is starting to evolve
> semi built the compute
> now capital rotates towards powering the compute
Why?
AI = enormous future power demand
AI NEEDS ELECTRICITY
I believe this is early positioning into:
Solar, grid infra, storage, transformers, etc..
Feels like the market is beginning to price in the second-order effect of AI capex
$ENPH breaking this monthly is a huge signal worth paying attention
One of many second derivative AI trades
$BTC testing the 21D MA
Bulls need to defend here if price is going to reclaim hypertrend and make another push toward the 200D MA
If support fails, next major confluence zone sits around the 50D + 100D MA near ~$76.5K
Also watching how this potentially aligns with the larger ETHBTC setup + institutional AVWAP levels on $ETH
Rest of my thoughts are in the Discord:
https://t.co/LbXHZzKnxa