🟢 BehavioralEdge 🟢

Investing in social behaviour: predictive and disruption-resistant. Exploring the human code. $HIMS $DUOL $META $GOOG $AMZN

[🟢 BehavioralEdge 🟢 @_MarketBehavior]

https://t.co/pFKNMbuMLw

[🟢 BehavioralEdge 🟢 @_MarketBehavior]

A particular moat nuance is when a sector is so tough that there are no incentives to fully get into those waters.

That’s education. That’s $DUOL’s garden.

Google, Meta, Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI…

We’ll see them wet their feet.
That’s it. Nothing else.

And regarding small fish…

Even with a product still in development, Duolingo has already achieved 80%+ of the market.

What do you think will happen as the product gets much better?

[🟢 BehavioralEdge 🟢 @_MarketBehavior]

Yes, that's the main idea. In AMD case I borrow money at 6% to buy an asset which already has delivered 400%

Similar with Google. Expect the same in 2028 with Hims and Duolingo.

Ultimately wealth is a function of number of shares x price.

It's no so easy as it may seem, but that's the idea.

[🟢 BehavioralEdge 🟢 @_MarketBehavior]

@FromValue oh, I see.
It would have been interesting to know your opinion on that.

[🟢 BehavioralEdge 🟢 @_MarketBehavior]

Todos los niños aprender a hablar un idioma por una motivación intrínseca de superviviencia que impulsa más allá del esfuerzo. Pasa lo mismo con andar.

El ser humano tiene la necesidad intrínseca de comunicación y conexión con otros seres humanos.

Parece que tú asumes que $META va a orientar la superinterligencia a que el ser humano se desarrolle.

Es creible una empresa que precisamente ha hecho lo contrario se oriente allí?

Cuál es el incentivo, si tenemos en cuenta lo complejo de la tarea y el poco rendimiento?
Si buscas información verás que el desarrollo personal es muy complejo y el dinero que mueve es muy bajo en comparación. $META TTM $214B, $DUOL TTM $1.1B
Duolingo puede hacer un X20 o un X50 en facturación en ese campo, pero META?

Repito, cuál es el incentivo de META?

Eso nos lleva a un punto relevante de la tesis de Duolingo: los peces pequeños no pueden competir y los grandes no tienen incentivos.

[🟢 BehavioralEdge 🟢 @_MarketBehavior]

Como quien no quiere la cosa... sin objetivo?
Puedes poner algún ejemplo real que haya pasado alguna vez?

No lo veo. Es difícil de por sí que una empresa grande pueda con una empresa de capacidades extraordinarias demostradas focalizada en un área específica. P.e. Spotify vs. Amazon o Apple.

[🟢 BehavioralEdge 🟢 @_MarketBehavior]

@Benz_G_24 Sí, superinteligencia = dominar

Competir con $DUOL = para qué?

[🟢 BehavioralEdge 🟢 @_MarketBehavior]

No institution in history has driven 10M+ people to sustain willpower-dependent behavior for 365+ consecutive days.

$DUOL

[🟢 BehavioralEdge 🟢 @_MarketBehavior]

@Benz_G_24 Para qué?

Meta le ha puesto un objetivo a su primera línea que les hace bilionarios si la capitalización llega a unos 9T.

De que le sirve esto que comentas para llegar a su objetivo?

[🟢 BehavioralEdge 🟢 @_MarketBehavior]

@alc2022 wait for the next big drawdown
bear arguments will be exactly the same

[🟢 BehavioralEdge 🟢 @_MarketBehavior]

I'm seriously considering the idea that according to Pat Dorsey's and Hamilton Helmers' famous books about moat

Today $DUOL is already a

Wide Moat stock

Not financial advice
Do your own research

[🟢 BehavioralEdge 🟢 @_MarketBehavior]

Languages being learned in my family: English, French and German.

English monthly cost: 200€ + 3,3€

Guess which figure belongs to $DUOL

From this month on, total cost just 3.3€.

Savings: 2.000€/year.

No switching costs.

No riscs.

Easy.

[🟢 BehavioralEdge 🟢 @_MarketBehavior]

@Moneytalks33333 more than happy to know anyone who succeeded in learning languages with AI and discuss about it.

I know lots of Europeans who talk 3-6 languages and none uses AI for that purpose.

[Kewl Kid @Moneytalks33333]

@alc2022 But $DUOL is a falling knife my friend. Who even uses an app to learn a language when there is AI

[🟢 BehavioralEdge 🟢 @_MarketBehavior]

Yes, interesting too.

The fact is that I'm already skipping lots of exercises, because my fluency is growing much faster than $DUOL's path.

After the first 6 exercises group in every section I go to the next section exam. That unlocks all the previous exercises and I choose listening and speaking (radio, stories and video calls).

[🟢 BehavioralEdge 🟢 @_MarketBehavior]

@LuisvonAhn a feature to skip some $DUOL exercises is necessary.

Every good language learner creates their own method on top of other methods.

I would skip all flashcards; they just waste my time.

You know they are not useful since they lack context.

[🟢 BehavioralEdge 🟢 @_MarketBehavior]

I speak four second languages, and the learning experience has never been as seamless as it is with $DUOL.

8 s. to start a lesson + bite-sized format + structured path = unbeatable convenience.

Video calls + other speaking exercises = real, rapid improvement.

What will happen?

It will take some years for Duolingo to be regarded as a top language learning method by hundreds of millions of learners.

Word-of-mouth in education is very slow by definition.

But it is unstoppable.

Competitors have no chance: data, CAC, cash, process, world-class management, and profitability.

Even if they overcome those difficulties, building a 100-million-user base will take them many years.

Word-of-mouth in education is very slow by definition, also for competitors.

[🟢 BehavioralEdge 🟢 @_MarketBehavior]

You are right that many users don’t know what works and what doesn’t. $DUOL has so much data on everyone that they can A/B test based on individual or group behavior. They could also filter what exercises can be skipped, and how often or when they can be bypassed.

The issue is that high-level users generally strive to be very productive, and the question is: how will Duolingo better cater to them?

[🟢 BehavioralEdge 🟢 @_MarketBehavior]

Word-of-mouth in education is so slow that it actually protects $DUOL's dominance from disruption.

Let’s assume a superior product emerges—one that surpasses Duolingo in teaching efficacy and engagement for non-highly motivated users (a feat already very difficult).

The learner's 'efficacy awakening'—achieving the 'mastery experience', 'self efficacy' and 'flow' necessary to validate the product—takes a minimum of 4–6 weeks according to second language acquisition research.

Compare this to Netflix:

In January 2007, Netflix launched 'Watch Now.'

A standard Blockbuster user could test the service in a single evening.

You can bet that by the next day, that person was praising the experience at work, school, or the gym.

It took Netflix a decade to reach the streaming pivot, but after that milestone only three years for Blockbuster to file for bankruptcy.

Word-of-mouth was lightning-fast and seamless.

Contrast that with Luis von Ahn’s reality:
'We expect that it's going to take a couple of years for word to get around that our English courses are good for intermediate and advanced speakers.' (Q3 2024 Earnings Call).

If it takes years for even a category leader like Duolingo to shift user perception, any competitor faces a multi-year uphill battle to build a multi-million-user base.

That window of time is a massive competitive advantage for a powerhouse like $DUOL.