What I have come to realise in reading responses to my posts, is that for Labor and many of its supporters, this budget is a bit of a moral crusade.
They see “workers” as virtuous (sweat and toil). And they have an innate suspicion of investors, who they seem to think are just rich people who got wealthy through special treatment and “handouts.”
In this frame, workers “earn” their wages. By contrast, capital income passively rains down from the heavens while the investor sits on a beach sipping martinis.
“You’re free to invest, just pay a bit more tax,” they say. But incentives are everything — if you punitively cap the upside while leaving the investor with most of the downside risk, less jobs will be created.
What frequently gets lost is that investment is not simply money appearing from nowhere. Capital comes from people who defer consumption, take risk and allocate savings to productive activities. Every business, factory, mine, software company and startup exists because somebody was willing to put capital at risk. These are the people that employ the workers.
Because this is a moral crusade, it’s hard to change people’s minds by talking about the economics of risk taking, cost of capital or real effective tax rates.
The great irony is that the fastest path for “workers” to become wealthy is to invest their savings on the side. Into productive businesses and other growth assets. These new tax rules will make it that much harder for the average worker to build wealth.
@taimurabdaal it's the only thing tech seems to think normal people do. There was a dwarkesh pod where they talked for a good 5 minutes trying to think about other things normal people did in their job and couldnt come up with anything.
@lukeknight His creativity in the ways he finds to grow the business are incredible. One of the best business biographies I’ve read apart from Marc Rich.
Perhaps the cognitive dissonance about what is or isn’t going to happen in the next 18 months is just an extreme form of kayfabe. To build something great you need to buy into it totally and any crack in your internal belief means you might cripple under the pressure if you feel it’s not completely inevitable. What may start as conscious quickly becomes unconscious, especially if everyone around you is doing the same.
@tomfgoodwin I think there’s also something about the simplicity of the ad and what you’re sharing . They’ve made careers of selling complexity (much easier than selling simple and effectve)
Feels like these deals are driven mostly to reduce risk rather than any big bets on what the future of entertainment actually looks like. "at least this way we're not totally fucked"
BREAKING: Disney to invest $1 Billion in OpenAI and license characters for use in ChatGPT’s Sora
The three-year licensing deal will let users generate videos of more than 200 Disney, Marvel, Star Wars and Pixar characters
@eli1ah I definitely have, unfortunately. Weird thing is that it’s actually hard to tell what does make a difference in those environments. Easy to call thing that is making the difference bullshit without realising.