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1. The elements of good trading are cutting losses, cutting losses, and cutting losses. (Ed Seykota)
@tr77ck We only fail if we quit! Take some time to think about what's causing this desperation, talk to professional about this. Then take it day by day, slow. You have all the time ahead of you to figure things out. you are only 17 and by no means behind on anything.
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Stop glorifying the grind.
Find a simple model, master it, and move on with your life.
You are here to make money and provide for your family
That's it.
Don’t force a trade today. You get paid to wait. You are a professional
Let the market come to you stack the probabilities in your favor.
Don’t go take a trade in low probability conditions because you are bored or lack discipline.
Seems to apply right now more than ever…. A Peter Lynch quote: “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.”
$SPY closed at 650.34. The gamma flip level is 651.
66 cents separated today's rally from a completely different market regime.
Below 651, dealers are short gamma. Every move gets amplified in both directions. Above it, they flip to sellers, dampening the rally.
Here's what nobody's talking about. CTAs are sitting on 344K contracts short. That's a colossal amount of fuel waiting to ignite.
But their algorithms don't care about Iran peace deals. They care about moving averages. The 20-day sits at 661. Until price sustains above that, the systematic crowd stays short.
So you've got a mechanical paradox. The squeeze needs CTA covering to push through 651. But CTAs need 661 to start covering.
Quarter-end window dressing gave us today's 2.91% pop on massive volume. Biggest single day move in a year. And buybacks are in blackout, so there's no corporate bid backstopping this.
Last time we saw this exact setup, negative gamma plus massive systematic shorts plus a sentiment catalyst, was October 2023. That squeeze ran 8% in two weeks once the flip happened.
I think we grind toward 655 to 661 this week as the gamma flip triggers mechanical buying. But without buybacks, 661 is where it gets real.
$VIX crushed 17.5% today and still sitting at 25. That's not complacency. That's a market still pricing real risk beneath the surface.
Does the plumbing carry us through, or does 651 become the ceiling? What's your read?