Personally, besides waiting to buy dips, I'd rather just sit tight until August
The previous cycles all took +130 days before things started cooking following the halving
Bears were only able to see a leg down from 126k thanks to the biggest crime ever committed in crypto history which was the 10/10 crash fully made up by White House Mafia and Binance Cartel. On that day, Binance dumped the market on purpose by selling their spot holdings right after trump announced that tariffs on china would be implemented, and as soon they stopped dumping their spot bags, they decided to really crash the market by activating the ADL (auto deleveraging) system. For those who dont know, when this system is activated, Binance is allowed to simply close any leveraged positions of any account under their exchange. And thats what they did. They started selling spot holdings at 121k, stopped selling at 116k. And right after they stopped selling they triggered the ADL system to dump the market even further. The market end up going to 101k, level whom they start rebuying their positions again with the same cash they got from selling in the 121k -> 116k leg down. Unfortunately for them, only dumb people believe the dump was cause by Trump tariffs. Informed people know that this was yet another made up crash by Binance to maximize their holdings.
What Binance was not expecting when they activated the ADL system scam, was to see their market makers getting flushed out as well as retail. For those who dont understand how market makers system works, they are constantly buying and selling spot, by placing limit orders to sell right above the price, and limit orders to buy right bellow the price. The perfect scenario for market makers would be seeing a sideways movement between their limit orders, however we know this not to be truth because the market often moves aggressively to both the upside and the downside. Therefore, market makers hedge themselves in perpetuals, to avoid getting exposure to those kinds of moves. Whenever the market starts moving down, market makers open short positions on perpetuals to protect themselves from losses, since their buy limit orders are being filled at the same time. The short positions act as insurance against the downside. Likewise, when the market starts moving up, they open long positions to hedge, as their sell limit orders are being filled. The long positions serve as insurance to prevent losses. In simple terms, they need both the spot market and perpetual market to run their operations.
In that day the ADL system was also triggered for market makers, which made them lose their hedge insurance. As the market started moving down, their buy limit orders were being filled, yet they were not able to short the market in perpetuals because the ADL system blocked their orders, leaving them completely exposed to longs while the market kept crashing. They were literally used as Binance exit liquidity and majority of them are now bankrupt. This week those same market makers started liquidating their spot holdings in order to pay the investors who are pulling out their sate in those same institutions. This was the reason why we saw such an aggressive move to the downside this week and the reason why I called to add limit orders to long in the 100-103k region, hours before they started liquidating their assets. Raw truth is that we would never be as low as we are now if it wasn't for Binance.
Big accounts can tell you whatever they want but the truth is that by now we would be trading in price discovery if it wasn't for Binance Cartel. Those same accounts keep screaming lower from months now, yet Bitcoin want even able to properly break the 100k support. For all those big accounts reading this, I say to you to stop acting like a clown and stop humiliating yourself, because soon enough when market makers finish liquidating their assets, we will bounce and the 118-120k resistance will be tested. You better pray for a denial there, otherwise 140-150k will come full speed.
Thank you for your understanding to this matter!
i asked chatgpt to generate a script to determine the probability of bitcoin closing green (>$102400) for the month of february and it's currently at 50%
will post updates under this thread until the monthly close
something went very wrong with updating the previous scripts so here is another using EWMA and taking into account historical performance of bitcoin post halving
30%
Ross was just granted a FULL AND UNCONDITIONAL PARDON by @realDonaldTrump. Words cannot express how grateful we are.
President Trump is a man of his word and he just saved Ross's life. ROSS IS A FREE MAN!!!!!