Strategy Dude

Bitcoin, $MSTR, Chemical Engineer. Seeker of sun, beaches, & tropical locations.

[Strategy Dude @_StrategyDude]

Proud shareholder! Grateful to have met @saylor.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

https://t.co/yeG4PgpjEq

[Chaitanya Jain @CJ_Bitcoin]

We’re not traders. We don’t speculate or try to time the market. We don’t do technical analysis or draw lines on charts.

bitcoin:native is going up forever. There’s only one @Strategy. Buy and hodl.

[Strategy Dude @_StrategyDude]

@moneyordebt @timevalueofbtc @slideshare @ScientificBTC Thank you for sharing Stephen. I love your work and appreciate your many contributions to advancing the understanding of Bitcoin.

[moneyordebt ∞/21M @moneyordebt]

42 slides, background for my discussion with @timevalueofbtc this week

Bitcoin as a Logarithmic Time Standard: Power Laws, Network Dynamics, and Eco... by @Perrenod #bitcoin https://t.co/M95d93BdIJ via @Slideshare

@ScientificBTC

[The Wolf Of All Streets @scottmelker]

More than half of all $BTC in circulation is now held at an unrealized loss.

10.5M BTC are underwater. Only 9.8M are in profit.

This crossover has coincided with every major bear market bottom in history.

BTC also just touched its 200-week moving average at $61,300, a level reached in every previous bear market cycle, though it broke below it for 9 months in 2022.

If $60k breaks, the next support is $54,000, the average cost basis of every coin in circulation.

History says we're near a bottom. History also says "near" can take a while.

[Cern Basher @CernBasher]

AI & Bitcoin are two sides of the same opportunity - this gap will close (nfa).

[Dylan LeClair @DylanLeClair]

@Metaplazamurai People tend to declare Bitcoin dead whenever sentiment is at its lowest. The phrase is intentionally ironic: BTC has been pronounced dead hundreds of times over its history, yet it has continued to endure through every cycle and rise to new heights.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

I want every individual to own Bitcoin.

I want every public company to own Bitcoin.

I want every private company to own Bitcoin.

This is controversial to Bitcoiners.

Ask yourself why.

Because a lot of Bitcoiners quietly want Bitcoin to win, but only in a way that preserves their personal mythology.

They want adoption, until adoption shows up in a boardroom.

They want global money, until public companies start treating it like global money.

They want fiat to die, but apparently only if it dies in a tasteful little cabin with a full node, a cast iron stove, and zero corporate finance.

Sorry. Bitcoin wins when everyone owns it.

Individuals. Public companies. Private companies. Pension funds. Insurance companies. Nations.

The entire point is that no one needs permission.

[Strategy Dude @_StrategyDude]

@chcbearsfan is one of the best treasury company analysts out there.

[Bobby Tierney @chcbearsfan]

CEBE continues to prove the bull thesis and show you were the cliff actually is

BTC is down. All things built on BTC will be down

The prefs are just borrowing commons SATS to stay whole until BTC gives them back plus the interest in the way of balance sheet expansion

Both Strive and Strategy can survive a protracted bear market. The math is the math

Make them show you their math not their emotions if you see FUD on the timeline

[moneyordebt ∞/21M @moneyordebt]

Your panic is a buying signal. For others, and for yourself.

And an opportunity for emotional growth.

[Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW @Giovann35084111]

Please follow this account. He is a Research Fellow at the Scientific Bitcoin Institute.

[Bobby Tierney @chcbearsfan]

The Strive team spent this week's hurdle rate stress testing the survivability path from the $ASST deep dive. Locked out of capital markets, 2022 bear overlay, can the 18-month reserve carry the $SATA dividend without forced Bitcoin selling

Their answer is well-modeled, and I credited that reserve in the piece. No debt, no encumbered BTC, real cash runway. On solvency, the structure holds

But survivability and per-share ownership are two different questions, and only one of them got answered this week

The doom loop in the piece was never "Strive defaults." The company survives it. The mechanism is the certificate's own release valve. If cash tightens, Section 5(b) funds the dividend by issuing common stock

SATA holders get paid the whole way down. What erodes is what common equity owns per share. Its a scenario of forced dilution, not forced default. You can sell zero Bitcoin and still run it

That's the gap. Amplification and the reserve math answer "can we survive." CEBE answers "what does the common holder own today." Across twelve snapshots while ASST's BTC nearly tripled, CEBE held flat in a band 1,234 SATs wide

Both true at once. Build maximal amplification, survive every stress test, and per-share ownership can still tread water or fall

Matt Cole said it himself this week, even at the institutional level there's no agreed definition of leverage, so it's on issuers to define the terms

Exactly

That vacuum is the reason a net-of-claims, per-share standard has to exist and why it can't be defined by the issuer it measures. As a Bitcoiner, the last place I want the accretion math set is in the hands of the party the math flatters. That's just counterparty risk smuggled into basic arithmetic

Verify, don't trust, including the metric. Finish the math

https://t.co/RvEzFZqESP

[Root 🥕 @therationalroot]

"This time is different" #Bitcoin

[BitStrategy @BitStrategy21]

We don’t need to be better, we need to be the best.

There is no second best.

[AA ⚡️ @AAStack]

When you been a Bitcoiner for 7 years ⚡️

[moneyordebt ∞/21M @moneyordebt]

What’s going on is your sensationalism by plotting on a linear axis and clipping into a small range. And typing in all caps.

Try plotting on a log price - log age scale.

This is a power law network asset in the long term.

Log-log plot regularly updated at https://t.co/nWmFA2thic

@Giovann35084111

People who panic at this should convert that emotion into a desire to buy at favorable prices. Stoicism.

Or leave Bitcoin to those with the emotional maturity to deal with the volatility.

Instead of “what is going on?” — “What, rationally, should I do here?”

[Josh Man @JoshMandell6]

If you're a Bitcoin treasury company, you must defend your currency (stock) and that means defending mNAV if you reach levels at which buybacks are clearly accretive to the shareholder.

if you are a leveraged Bitcoin enterprise, you must defend the peg.

[Strategy Dude @_StrategyDude]

@Giovann35084111 When is the next YouTube broadcast with @moneyordebt?

[Strategy Dude @_StrategyDude]

@apsk32 We didn’t actually have a bull run this “cycle”. Bitcoin exhibits log periodic bubble behavior as described by @Giovann35084111 and @moneyordebt. Next bubble anticipated in 2028 or 2029.

[Strategy Dude @_StrategyDude]

@Danainhawaii I love it! I miss Hawaii