Tomos Lucas

Defence Market Intelligence and Strategy Analyst | Views are my own

[John Foreman CBE @John_ForemanCBE]

The fact that RAF tankers can’t refuel our own Rivet Joint, Poseidon, and C-17 should be a source of national embarrassment.

A clear failure of defence management.

[Matthew Savill @MTSavill]

The MOD complains that people don't understand defence or the Armed Forces. Then produces tweets like this hitting all the buzzwords...

[Larisa Brown @larisamlbrown]

Awkward meeting ahead for Dan Jarvis tomorrow. Mark Rutte, Nato’s secretary-general, said on Wednesday that he expected member states to “present clear, concrete and credible plans” to be spending 5 per cent of GDP on defence by 2035, and “ideally well ahead of the agreed timeline” https://t.co/IqbEr7M9vi

[JamesFennell MBE @FennellJW]

As I said earlier today, a weak government will be driven to rearm by events. Today one of those events occurred when a frigate opened fire on a British registered yacht 20 miles from the Isle of Wight.

[Jack Watling @Jack_Watling]

The failure to produce a credible Defence Investment Plan, therefore, means HMG is going to the G7, the NATO summit, and other forums where counterparts have made hard trade-offs to meet their commitments and the UK can't say when it might even get on the right trajectory. 5/9

[Larisa Brown @larisamlbrown]

Breaking: Sir Richard Knighton confirms to Lord Robertson that the armed forces will be forced to "dial back our activities and our exercise and operational activity" if the funding offer does not increase from £13.5 billion

[Tom Tugendhat @TomTugendhat]

The @BBCNews has now confirmed what some of us warned for years.

A Russian diplomat ran a sabotage campaign on British soil: arson against the Prime Minister’s own home, and fake far-right and Islamist groups built to turn us against each other. This is not crime. It is how war is fought by powers who don’t want to expose their hand. https://t.co/G7cp3xaZQK

[Larisa Brown @larisamlbrown]

Responding to a UQ in the Commons, Luke Pollard says "we will publish a fully funded defence investment plan" ahead of the Nato summit on July 7. He says the government is still committed to all 62 recommendations in the DIP

[Gabriele Molinelli @Gabriel64869839]

One of the many questions involves way ahead for British presence in Estonia.

WARRIOR IFVs will soon be gone.
Armour in general cannot sustain Estonia AND be Reserve for SACEUR simultaneously.

4X has no armour and shares supports with 7X.

Square the equation, if you can!

[Ed Davey @EdwardJDavey]

Healey's resignation is a wake-up call for Starmer and Burnham.

Stop repeating the mistakes of the Conservatives and get serious about funding our armed forces properly.

We cannot afford years more political chaos while our national security is put at risk.

[Tomos Lucas @_tomlucas]

This is the crux of it... we must be honest about our national readiness and capabilities.

[Tim L-G🇺🇦 @IntercityFC]

We now have the same number of Defence Secretary’s as SSN’s at sea.

[Tomos Lucas @_tomlucas]

John Healey’s resignation should mark a turning point. In an more unstable world, prioritising welfare over defence reflects a significant failure in safeguarding the UK. The era of assumed peace is over; we must rearm. Yet politics continues to constrain serious investment.

[Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn]

A rant. There’s a misunderstanding about just how short the government’s Defence Investment Plan will fall, when we do finally see it. Sadly, it’s so much worse than the general conception.

It’s not just the gap between the £28billon that the chiefs asked for and the £13.5bn Rachel Reeves is offering. The chiefs’ £28bn was actually just the minimum they think defence needs to get through the next four years. To pay for the full transformation that the SDR prescribes, and insists is vital, I’m told internal MoD estimates put the real sum needed at 4.5 or 5% of GDP (which btw is also NATO’s new annual spending target). The UK currently only spends 2.3% of its GDP on defence, rising to 2.5% next April.

In cash terms, that means defence actually needs an extra £60bn, and not just over 4 years but EVERY year. That’s the true scale of the task, and what our allies like Germany and Poland are now well on their way towards. So the Treasury/No10’s current sticking plaster offer is not just woefully thin, it doesn’t even touch the sides.

To defend Britain properly in the frightening modern world that we now live, the next Prime Minister (Burnham, Badenoch or Farage) is going to have to start all over again. And unlike the current government, they will have to have this debate publicly and honestly.

[RUSI @RUSI_org]

Waiting for the UK's Defence Investment Plan? We’ve already looked at many of the key topics it will need to address. Here’s a thread:

[Mike Martin MP 🔸 @ThreshedThought]

When I told them that we had 11 ships, they were utterly shocked.

Genuinely jaw-droppingly shocked.

[JamesFennell MBE @FennellJW]

The rubber hits the road when we need defence but we have failed to pay for it. The money has gone to those capabilities most called upon in peacetime first; special forces, helicopters, the nuclear deterrent, leaving attack submarines paired down to minimal availability. https://t.co/koVbVsBRnJ

[Rt. Hon Ben Wallace @BenWallace70]

The reality is that Defence’s needs more revenue funding which pays for things such as salaries, repairs, servicing, day to day running costs and operations as well as ammo and upgrades. It is where the department is most stressed and it is why we have seen less ship availability. Handing out other departments capital underspends isn’t really going to fix the problem. That’s why cutting welfare gives you more running costs. HMG needs to fund defence with a proper mix of RDEL and CDEL funding. Otherwise you get kit we aren’t able to keep up to date or use. I always said i could have delivered a lot more for less with a 10 year budget with greater flex between revenue and capital. HMT instead are determined to keep all of Whitehall on 1 year or at most 3 year cycles which usually costs more in the long run.

[Jack Watling @Jack_Watling]

@shashj No serious person thought the SDR had been costed. And the PM should have considered this when he tripled our commitment to our allies. 'No one told me' isn't good enough. It was obvious to anyone who paid the slightest attention to the subject.

[Ed Davey @EdwardJDavey]

This would be simply unforgiveable.

With an aggressive Kremlin and an unstable White House, Starmer must show leadership.

We are calling for the use of defence bonds to raise £20bn to end this stagnation.