Dav

[Dav @_veradium]

@bobbyfir3 @852luk @0x_Richie nice to meet you too sir 🫡

[intern @intern]

2024 Crypto Year in Review

[:) @smileycapital]

ok some thoughts, rants after burning even more money trying to grasp the market state, cycle stuff etc;

mkt went from uptrend straight into downtrend, no compression between, last time we've had that was Nov-Dec 2021, super rare occurrence, obviously not calling for cycle top we have entire year ahead of us still, however in the near-term;

scalps aren't working at all for now, naked shorts are probably better than systematic trades, but that's pure gamble/deviating away from ones system, so no point

usually I thrive in choppy conditions, but not now, Q2-Q3 2023+2024 were super lucrative for me, easy mode while everyone suffers, so it means this isn't chop - this is a downtrend

I'm guessing this whole macro thing puts an unexpected pause on our bullrun - we weren't overextended, we weren't frothy or over-leveraged in the crypto system - this is pure, systematic spot selling downtrend/de-risk from tradfi

considering we're entering the fomc blackout period AND holidays season while dxy absolutely rips it upwards - I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see further clarity until late January or even February - March

I think this gives us a prolonged cycle, deep into 2025, possibly into Q1 2026, as we're somewhat mirroring 2016-2017 that was slower, instead of 2020-2021 that was rushed/ahead of the schedule

it's good news if you can stomach further pain - I'll give another update once something develops, but for now this is just fucking grim not gonna lie, we wanted tradfi correlation/institutions - this is the price we pay, the correlation is destroying us in times when we should be pumping, while being a high-beta asset means we often have a delay/liquidity isn't able to trickle down properly in due time - feels like a limbo state

I do think once macro resolves itself reflexivity will kick in so hard it's gonna catch most ppl off guard so I suggest being deployed and patient

[dani @altsycrypto]

BTC $100k. getting this one framed on my wall.

history.

[Rain @rainnen23]

I am sorry, but if you missed these tokens I feel bad for you

I just joined crypto 16 days ago and was easily able to 5x my money while you chodes got chopped up for 6 months

[smolting (wassie, verse) @inversebrah]

imagine.

you - by the time the chart reaches the right hand side of the screen - own 1 btc of this nameless shitcoin on a small exchange

your avg entry price is ~1k sat

it's 2017

[More Jesterly The Giver @lazyvillager1]

DMs open

at the end of the day when you are making decisions agonizing over your personal net worth it's impossible to be fully rational. that is often what comes of over-sizing

it is the same as playing at a high-stakes poker table with your rent money as your buy-in. it's hard to bluff-catch or overbet jam if you know you're on your last bullet

scared money don't make money. when you want to bet big or take profit it should be because you think you are right. not because it is adjusted to your personal finance goals. that is the position of power that you want to be in at all times if possible

[Jordi Alexander @gametheorizing]

I have found that one becomes much happier in general, and a much better trader/investor, once you make complete peace with this simple fact-

The world isn't "fair". The people making the most money are not always the most virtuous- often the opposite. Crypto doesn't change this, it just accelerates it compared to the trad world.

The worst projects often pump the hardest. Their insiders will cash out $100s of millions because they happen to find themselves in the center of a gambling tsunami- either by sheer chance/luck-- or in the case of some projects and memecoins, by design.

Those who learn the playbook early gather resources and can afford to do it again and again, milking the market while everyone else is a headless chicken seeing the gains being made and trying to put out a bucket to capture some of the raindrops.

Point of this post is not to incite a moral reaction. There is no good or evil. There is simply the game theory equilibrium. The natural order of how group incentives merge together. Best to observe and learn without using judgements as a crutch for our ego on this simple reality.

I speak to lots of participants who see the absurd riches being made by those of questionable morals and they will say 'yes xyz is making bank but they will end up in jail' or 'they will gamble it all back'. Maybe that happens maybe it doesn't. What I know is this-

Bad decisions get made when hoping for things being a certain 'fair' way and betting on that outcome. It simply is not how it works on average. Plus the mental cope drains energy that can be used on productive thoughts.

There is power in silencing our ego's reaction to the 'unfair' things we witness in this space. We observe simply what is, and we position ourselves for reality without bias 💨

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

There is always an urge to add fresh new capital late in a bull market or often near a local top, and directed towards the more speculative side of the market. (FOMO essentially).

Fresh capital is generally weaker handed as the trader increases position size beyond the comfort zone. So it’s easily shaken out once the market turns lower, resulting in a derisking at a low.

This greed driven process is how early Cycle investors quickly go from deep in profit to significantly underperforming, then eventually into a full tilt mode of chasing ever more speculative returns. That early entry and discipline is forgotten as the allure of riches takes hold.

There is only so much juice that can be comfortably squeezed out of a market. Anything more requires putting your head squarely on the block and a large element of luck.

[Taiki Maeda @TaikiMaeda2]

https://t.co/F2kWf21WzI

[Avocado Toast @avotoast]

great article

$avb

[Ergonia @Ergonia_]

https://t.co/sVzaEAS9XP

[Alistair Milne @alistairmilne]

Let him cook

[Unipcs (aka 'Bonk Guy') 🎒 @theunipcs]

several people have tagged me recently to ask if i'm still bullish on D.O.G.E i.e. Department of Government Efficiency / $DOGE

i'll give you a simple, straightforward answer first before going into a longwinded essay on why I'm still bullish:

i bought an additional $200k worth of D.O.G.E today

this is despite my public wallet being the biggest holder with $8 MILLION+ worth of tokens

i bought more not only because i genuinely believe that this is one of the biggest memecoin narratives to emerge this cycle

but also because the current price action is very bullish

many lose generation wealth on memecoins because they expect memecoins to simply pump to billion dollar caps in a straight line

not only does it rarely work that way, but it's bearish if a new memecoin keeps pumping without pullbacks because you're going to have a lot of people who suddenly have a lot of wealth and have never seen their memecoin experience a real pullback

so when they get the first real pullback they start dumping and it becomes a race to the bottom and there is almost no support for the token

the best and healthy way for a memecoin to grow is to have explosive pumps followed by deep pullbacks followed by more explosive pumps while making new highs

and that's exactly what's happening with D.O.G.E

i'll share some data to better illustrate my point:

- D.O.G.E has pumped 6,000% in the past month alone. that's A LOT of pumping and a bit of healthy correction is needed before the next aggressive leg up, which is what's happening right now
- its holder count has doubled in the past week alone, which means a lot of new users are replacing those that are exiting
- it has consistently been among the most traded token on the Ethereum chain in the past month. it is often the #1 traded token on the chain
- it is currently the #2 most traded token on Ethereum & second only to $PEPE which is a $9 billion memecoin. it also has more total unique on-chain holders buying it than any other token in the top 5. that's incredibly bullish as this volume shows strong demand from users
- large wallets that are exiting are rapidly being replaced by smaller wallets which shows strong appetite for the token among small holders/retail who will keep evangelizing it

at the end of the day, whenever many hear about my story of turning:

- $16k to $18,000,000+ on $BONK at peak
- $6k to $1,000,000+ on $WIF at peak
- a lot of other smaller figures to 7 figures or an insane amount of Xs on other memecoins

they assume that doing this is a cakewalk

it isn't!

often i need to hold these assets for months through periods of 50 - 90%+ pullbacks before i achieve these insane gains

don't forget that i first started screaming about D.O.G.E around $6m - $9m market cap just 2 months ago

it experienced a small initial 'Unipcs pump' at the time which then gradually fizzled out as the moonbois chasing a quick pump got out shortly after and many thought it was done

yet i kept buying and screaming about it because i saw that the narrative and on-chain metrics favor an aggressive and explosive move for the token

many ignored it because they thought it has no legs and now at $280m they wished they had bought earlier

and at $1b+ many will wish they had gotten in at these levels, God willing

the reality is that my bullish thesis for D.O.G.E has only gotten stronger (which is why i am tweeting about it a lot more):

- the Department of Government Efficiency / D.O.G.E has been announced so there's no doubt anymore that it will be formed
- Elon keeps memeing the department and has committed to weekly 'transparency updates' about their activity which will only fuel a media frenzy around the narrative
- Trump himself has memed the narrative by introducing a D.O.G.E t-shirt. we've seen several half-assed memes hit $1b+ this cycle. imagine fading the ONLY narrative being memed by the literal President of the United States of America
- normies like D.O.G.E. several people have reported that their retail friends are asking them about it and are consistently picking it when presented a sea of options and asked to make a choice
- dogecoin is primed for an explosive rally heading into 2025 and D.O.G.E will be the largest beneficiary since it is the best DOGE beta right now
- D.O.G.E has done this well without any solid CEX listings. what do you think happens when it gets some strong CEXs? i heard that there are quite a few coming! 👀️️️️️️

in all, i tend to be a lone voice screaming about all of these memecoins for a while

but i often get ignored until they explode out of nowhere and outperform everything else including the favorite CT picks

then you all of a sudden have everyone shouting once again that 'BONK GUY WAS RIGHT'

well... bonk guy is screaming here once again

NOTE: i'll paste the contracts and charts for the real Department of Government Efficiency / D.O.G.E below since many keep asking whenever i tweet about it

- ETH contract: 0x1121AcC14c63f3C872BFcA497d10926A6098AAc5
- SOL contract (Cross-chain Bridge): KQijDbNJ6rPCqhtXrfH6gKa5cH3a39At8vHq34nnPbF (you can use this version if you want to have exposure on the Solana blockchain)
- CEXs: D.O.G.E is listed as 'DOGEGOV' on Gate, BingX, and a few other CEXs

DEXTools charts:

- ETH: https://t.co/OFQTz6NcAW
- SOL: https://t.co/UCtDN6x9VJ

[:) @smileycapital]

bit of a cynical post, but timeline is delusional again

people think I'm joking, bantering here with a homie

you're unequivocally LATE. bear bottom was Summer 2022 into FTX collapse. Q1 2023 at the latest. that's 2 years ago

while yes, most alts still have gigantic gains in front of them that can absolutely change lives, what many don't understand is the psychology of participants that are just now locking in, just now joining, just now saying "it's only getting started"

of course there are exceptions, but the majority of these participants are automatically programmed to prolong the cycle in their minds

why is that? because when it was time to accumulate and recognize the new cycle [late 2022, early-mid 2023], they were nowhere to be seen, or sidelined

people joining/locking in now have a very twisted perception of cycle longevity, where we are in the cycle, how long [or rather short] the true alt seasons can be

they will succumb to dream-sellers promoting a never ending bull market/alt season, conditioning themselves to only expect green candles and fast bullish reversals and considering they're very late to the cycle [time-wise], their 'needs' will likely not be met even after a 10-100x. "I've just joined, this space is amazing, time to make even money" as they whisper at the picco top sometime in 2025

that's ultimately the demise of majority, and I just gave you the reasons why.

"oohhh you're coping, cynical, wrong"

I was called wrong in 2022 for doomposting at 60k. we nuked to 15k.

I was called wrong in 2023 for bullposting at 20k. we pumped to 70k

I was called wrong forecasting a slow, choppy Q2-Q3 in 2024. we chopped you all to DEATH.

I was called wrong forecasting a bullish Q4 2024.

keep calling me wrong, it seemed to have worked out for you in the past 👍

[Coinbase Assets 🛡️ @CoinbaseAssets]

Assets added to the roadmap today: dogwifhat (WIF)
https://t.co/rRB9d3hSr2

[Dark Crypto Lady @DarkCryptoLord]

The next 2.5 years will be the most crucial if you're a crypto trader. There's a high chance that President Trump will usher in a new golden bull run. He's not even inaugurated yet, and we can already see the market's optimism.

If it's your first cycle, it doesn't hurt to listen to the advice of veterans. The good thing about being new is that you have zero fear and can afford to adopt an "up-only" mindset. Just don't forget to manage your risk when your account size grows significantly.

If it's your second cycle, it's time to let go of any PTSD from your first cycle. Use the pain and suffering of the past 3 years as lessons to strengthen your resolve. As Roger Federer said, "When you're playing a point, it has to be the most important thing in the world. But when it's behind you, it's behind you."

Whatever happened is already over. Forget about the ATH you hit 2 years ago. Now it's time to focus and get back into game mode to reach new ATH.

Dips are temporary; glories are forever. It's time to make your entire family proud and create generational wealth for those who come after you.

If it's your third cycle, you already know the drill. I sincerely hope that, if you haven't made it yet, you will in this cycle! Otherwise you may really have to find a real job haha

Personally, I don't have specific financial goals to look forward to. It's more like a solo RPG to me, as I focus on my own lane and continue to score as many points as possible. But hey, it's about the laughter, friendships and Ferraris made along the way.

May we all be blessed with abundant wealth 💰

Donk World.