$QQQ
Large-cap tech stocks have seen 30%+ drawdowns multiple times over the past 20 years — yet long-term fundamentals told a different story than short-term price action. When that happens, the real question isn’t “why is it down?” It’s “has my original thesis changed?” Price and value are not the same thing.
That gap is where discipline lives.
Since 1/23/26:
Gold −2%
Silver −30%
Commodities don’t produce cash flow ➡️ which means valuation is narrative, not math.
From 2020–2024: Massive money printing by the Federal Reserve. Inflationary. Metals should outperform no?
Metals: Relatively flat
Equities: Nearly doubled your investment in 4 years just holding the S&P.
Long term,
owning productive assets > owning stuff
The two items most inversely correlated with risk assets continue to surge – silver breaking above $100/oz today and gold on the precipice of testing $5,000/oz. That this is happening with the major averages hovering near their all-time highs may well go down as the most bizarre circumstance in modern history. The precious metals complex and the stock market cannot both be right and something is going to have to give at some point. Make your choice.
The two items most inversely correlated with risk assets continue to surge – silver breaking above $100/oz today and gold on the precipice of testing $5,000/oz. That this is happening with the major averages hovering near their all-time highs may well go down as the most bizarre circumstance in modern history. The precious metals complex and the stock market cannot both be right and something is going to have to give at some point. Make your choice.
Friendly reminder that the average American doesn’t care about individual stocks.
They hold the S&P 500 in their retirement account and never sell.
The market is down -4.90% YTD.
People need to get a grip.
Workout meaningfully, eat whole foods, stay in a calorie deficit, sleep for 7-8 hours. You’ll be shredded in 4 months and your mental health will improve 10 fold. People know exactly what they should be doing and simply don’t do it. Not easy but is simple.