aRandomAnalyst

randomly analysing

[Jonny Matthews | SuperMacro @super_macro]

The US jobs market is heating up, core inflation is sticky and showing no signs of returning to target. Fed rate cuts are off the table in 2026.
Elvis sits down with Jonny Matthews — 25 years of institutional macro trading at Brevan Howard and Citigroup — to work through what the latest labour market data really means, why inflation is structurally more stubborn than markets expect, and what it all implies for rates and equities.

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

What is the real interest rate today? 101

Yikes. Some say US real rates are low and falling. Some say they are negative others say they are at Covid highs. How can smart people have such different opinions.

It comes down to three basic questions that are a matter of faith.

[bodila @51bodila]

Jane Street made ~$200M on one insider trade, their intern leaked them information about the $40B company meltdown

- now Jane Street is being sued for $4B, over a 10-minute trade

their intern created a group chat called "Bryce's Secret" to feed into fund confidential info

then they dumped $85M at the perfect moment and triggered the biggest crypto collapse in history

regulators are now after them in 2 different countries

16-min documentary about how one of the most profitable firm on Wall Street made $200M for 10-min

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

I shit post bubble. I long form nuance

https://t.co/PLFIemgXx0

[aRandomAnalyst @aRandomAnalyst]

@Rochester_Rates do you think the UK economy in the current status can sustain 90bps of hikes? if so you should be balls long Z7 Sonia cause the economy would crater.

[Michael McDonough @M_McDonough]

🚢New Intraday Strait of Hormuz Trackers!

We’ve launched near real-time crossing data to provide 30-minute visibility into the world’s most critical oil chokepoint. Maps are cool, but in a crisis you need data you can actually track and verify.

📊 Integration: These metrics are now available as Bloomberg tickers. You can pull them directly into Worksheets, build custom Charts, or set Alerts to monitor traffic shifts and rate volatility as they happen.

📡 The Data: Powered by real-time AIS transponder data, these trackers monitor all inbound and outbound movements. This granular layer is designed to help navigate the current geopolitical risk and supply chain volatility.

🗺️ Evolution: This is the first of many updates. Coverage of all major global chokepoints and additional metrics are currently in development.

[Quantіan @quantian1]

“Marco, we need you to sell 10 million crude deltas today”

[ian @IanRountree]

Holy photonics, Batman! This has been one of the most lucrative trends of late, and we expect it will keep going as interconnect moves from copper to fiber and especially as co-packaged optics take off.

[Peter Harrell @petereharrell]

Costco yesterday became the latest company to sue the government for an IEEPA tariff refund, if SCOTUS rules that IEEPA tariffs are illegal. Let's unpack what is happening:

1. Costco joins Revlon, EssilorLuxottica (Ray Ban, etc.), Kawasaki, Bumble Bee, Yokohama Tire, and others suing in the Court of International Trade (CIT) demanding refunds and injunctions against the government collecting IEEPA tariffs from the plaintiffs.

2. In principle, a company forced to pay unlawful tariffs SHOULD be able to get its money back, just as you should get a refund if, e.g., the IRS illegally seized 80% of your income. In the lawsuits currently before SCOTUS, DoJ told the lower courts that at least the named plaintiffs would get refunds if the tariffs are unlawful.

3. However, companies are concerned about how tariff refunds might work in practice. In particular, they fear that (a) the government might not set up an administrative process to make it (relatively) easier to obtain refunds, and instead require importers who want refunds to file suit; (b) that in light of the Supreme Court ruling ending "universal" injunctions earlier this year, courts won't grant refunds to companies that fail to bring their own lawsuits, and (c) that companies could essentially forfeit their right to refunds if they fail to take action soon.

4. Companies are suing now because IEEPA tariffs they paid earlier this year are nearing "liquidation." In essence, when an importer brings in a good, it pays an estimated tariff. About a 10 months later the government "liquidates," or finalizes, the tariffs, and can demand a top-up if the estimate was too low or issue a rebate if the initial tariffs were too high. After liquidation, companies generally have 180 days to file a protest if they disagree with CBP's calculation. Companies are worried that if they let liquidation occur without filing suit--and certainly if they don't file a protest within 180 days of liquidation--they could lose their right to a refund, even if SCOTUS ultimately rules IEEPA tariffs illegal.

5. There is real money at stake. About a third of the products Costco sells are imported, which would mean more than $80 billion/year of sales in imported products. Of course, that $80 billion is the final sales value of the goods, not the import value, and we don't know exactly what products Costco sources from which countries. We don't know exactly how much Costco has paid in tariffs--but I wouldn't be surprised at a figure of $1 billion+.

6. I bet we see more refund suits in the coming weeks, between the looming liquidation deadlines for other companies and the fact that companies will see their competitors suing and not want to inadvertently lose their own refund rights. (Will Walmart risk Costco getting refunds but not Walmart?)

7. Incidentally, the lawsuits also demand that the government pay plaintiffs' legal fees. Taxpayers may end up paying the cost of all of the litigation against the IEEPA tariffs...

[Poonam Soni @CodeByPoonam]

Goodbye ChatGPT

It’s only been 5 days since Deepseek R1 dropped, and the World is already blown away by its potential.

13 examples that will blow your mind (Don't miss the 5th one):

[Ignorance, the root and stem of all evil @ivan_8848]

Jeffrey Sachs Killed Biden, Zelensky and Kamala!!!

[MAZE @mazemoore]

Remember Democrats, you hated Kamala too until you were instructed to pretend otherwise.

[Not Jerome Powell @alifarhat79]

Thank God, Elon bought Twitter so we can finally have a free speech platform

USA just finished last among 46 countries in media trust. Wondering why? Check this out👇

[James O'Keefe @JamesOKeefeIII]

BREAKING: Senior Meta Engineer Reveals Anti-Kamala Posts Are "Automatically Demoted,” Admits Shadowbanning Tactics

"Say your uncle in Ohio said something about Kamala Harris is unfit to be a president because she doesn't have a child, that kind of sh*t is automatically demoted,” reveals @Meta Senior Software Engineer, Jeevan Gyawali (@JGyawali), to an undercover @OKeefeMedia journalist during a hidden camera date. He confirmed, “The person would not be notified,” but would see a decline in their post engagement and impressions, explaining that Meta’s “Integrity Team” is responsible for controlling content through “civic classifiers,” a system that “shadowbans” posts without notifying users.

Gyawali also revealed a specialized Special Weapons And Tactics (SWAT) team that was created at Meta, stating, “There is a SWAT team that's already set up since April… just to think about all the scenarios of how the platform could be abused.” When asked if Meta is doing their due diligence to protect democracy from disinformation, Gyawali ensured “that’s all going to be demoted 100%.”

When asked, “You guys [Meta] have the ability to influence the outcome of the election?” Gyawali confirmed, “Yes,” admitting Meta’s power to sway political outcomes. When asked if Mark Zuckerberg (@finkd), Co-Founder and CEO and Meta, supports Meta’s political influence and agenda to help the Democratic Party, Gyawali answered, “100%.”

@MetaNewsroom @andymstone

[Tim Murtaugh @TimMurtaugh]

This might be the worst television interview by a candidate in U.S. presidential history.

Bill Whitaker: “You’ve changed your positions so much that no one believes anything.”

Harris: “Well, I’m the vice president and I travel a lot.”

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

Nearly 20% of outstanding debt on US commercial and multifamily real estate — $929 billion — will mature this year, requiring refinancing or property sales

[Jack Forehand @practicalquant]

NVDA reports earnings next week.

And expectations are exceptionally high.

In our latest episode of the OPEX Effect, @spotgamma took a look behind the scenes to see just how high they are.

Full episode:
https://t.co/OG53n5XbUs

[AnilVohra1962 🇬🇧🇨🇦 @AnilVohra1962]

Per GS: SPX imp correlations have crashed to all time lows. Stock correlations bottom at market peaks and peak at market tops.

via @spotgamma