ATHULKUMAR A

Analyzing the pulse of the electorate through a mathematical lens. 📊 Political Observer | Making sense of the polls. 🇮🇳

[ATHULKUMAR A @a_athulkumar]

@user_reddy Trivandrum Municipal region kerala

[Today's Chanakya @TodaysChanakya]

#TCAnalysis
8 Elections - 2 States - Consistent Track Record.

TC WB 2026, 2021, 2016 & 2011 analysis – SPOT ON with 100% accuracy.
TC Assam 2026, 2021, 2016 & 2011 analysis – SPOT ON with 100% accuracy.
We always need your love & wishes.
#TodaysChanakyaAnalysis

[TVK Vijay @TVKVijayHQ]

Thank you, Hon'ble @PMOIndia, for your greetings. The well-being of our people remains our only goal.

​Transcending politics, we shall focus on the State's progress and the welfare of people of Tamil Nadu. We look forward to the Union Government’s support in this endeavor.

[सव्यसाची -SAVYASACHI-देशभक्त @savvyasaachi]

𝗘𝗫𝗛𝗜𝗟𝗔𝗥𝗔𝗧𝗘𝗗

Thanks many to the Bumper Support for a seasoned survey team like us

Once again we hv correctly shown the momentum of WB, KERALAM, ASSAM & PY.

We accept the fact that we couldnt see the depth of TVK's performance even if we project them upto 40 seats.

[Anil Padmanabhan🇮🇳🕉️🚩 @anilp68]

മോദിയുടെ നേതൃത്വത്തിൽ സംസ്ഥാനങ്ങളിലെ ബിജെപിയുടെ വളർച്ച

[Pradeep Gupta @PradeepGuptaAMI]

Report card - Axis My India - State Elections 2026.

#axismyindia
#stateelections2026

[Dheeraj @addheeraj]

COngress helped BJP in last C dominated round in Kazhakootam
COng led with 3000
BJP got 2100
and CPM finished 3rd with 2000
THis sealed BJPs victory at the last moment. Unexpected twist

[Today's Chanakya @TodaysChanakya]

#TCAnalysis
· Our analysis on dot & spot on in West Bengal & Assam.
· In Kerala we correctly predicted UDF win.
· In Tamil Nadu we expected TVK to win many seats but missed to gauge this intensity.
Congratulations to the winning parties & candidates

West Bengal was one of the most difficult & challenging elections, which we predicted with 100% accuracy.

We always need your love & wishes.
#TodaysChanakyaAnalysis

[ATHULKUMAR A @a_athulkumar]

@TheNarratorInc This time employees voted through vfc so no edge for ldf

[Dheeraj @addheeraj]

Kattakada (counting pattern for BJp to win)
BJP has to lead 1st round itself, then in next few rounds it may fall to 2nd or 3rd.
THen it can take back lead at any further point of the counting (depending on final lead) as all remaining areas are favourable.

[ATHULKUMAR A @a_athulkumar]

@trrajeshtvpm പുത്തൻപള്ളി വാർഡ് മണ്ഡലത്തിലില്ല അതിലെ ഒരു ബൂത്തേ ഉള്ളൂ പണ്ട് അമ്പലത്തറയിലോ മറ്റോ ഉണ്ടായിരുന്നത് പിന്നെ പുഞ്ചക്കരി bjp lead ചെയ്യും കൃഷ്‌ണവേണിക്ക് കിട്ടിയ നായർ വോട്ടുകൾbjp ക്ക് തന്നെയാണ്

[Dheeraj @addheeraj]

Vatiyoorkaavu counting pattern.
In the initial 30% of count it will be triangular and BJP may trail
From 30% to 75%, BJP will steadily build up lead &would need 5K lead at 75% mark to confirm victory.
From there till end BJP lead will decrease but might hold on for victory

[Dheeraj @addheeraj]

Kazhakootam counting pattern
In initial 25% of count, CPM will lead, BJP will reduce this and take lead at 40% mark, it will again loose lead at 50-55% mark before regaining lead at 70% mark. Last few booths are minority dominated. so BJP will need at least 2k lead by then to win

[ATHULKUMAR A @a_athulkumar]

@addheeraj Use Cochran’s Formula like ns madavan the we conclude that sample size is not a matter

[ATHULKUMAR A @a_athulkumar]

@NSMlive Cochran’s Formula gives required sample size but if the sample size is large it will increase the precision and High accuracy.If the population in a constituency is 120000 the the sample size needed is 1058 .Each constituency has a different opinion

[ATHULKUMAR A @a_athulkumar]

@NSMlive Yes

[Ratan Sharda 🇮🇳 रतन शारदा @RatanSharda55]

.@sreeramjvc stands boldly by his prediction of #ADMK win with constituency wise exit poll -
https://t.co/NZooh41sh5

[Bong Political Doctor 🧡 @bong_politics]

Except 2024 LS , all their prediction since 2011 was spot on regarding Bengal

Track record toh sahi hai, baki people of Bengal knows better than any Survey agency whom they support

[SETHU @KodappullySethu]

@TodaysChanakya
2021 Prediction
Accurate 🔥

[Today's Chanakya @TodaysChanakya]

#TCAnalysis
#Election2026
Keralam 2026
Seat Projection
UDF 69 ± 9 Seats
BJP+ 7 ± 4 Seats
LDF 64 ± 9 Seats
Others 0 ± 1 Seats
#TodaysChanakyaAnalysis