Fergal O'Connor

Senior Lecturer Financial Economics UCC | Precious Metals: History&Investment | Consultant: Gold Pricing Models&Liquidy | Economics of Beer and NoLo Alcohol

[Fergal O'Connor @a_fergal]

Just Published: The Efficiency of the London Gold Fixing:
from #gold standard to hoarded commodity (1919-68). Paper shows the daily price of gold for the first time and discusses the 4 phases of this market: 2 Free markets & 2 Gold Standard periods. https://t.co/d4VzwrK9bo

[Fergal O'Connor @a_fergal]

Evaluates local precious metals market efficiency from 7 markets in local currencies,rather than the US, where the focus usually is. Efficiency of the 2 precious metals varies over time across developed and emerging markets without a pattern, indicating heterogeneity within each.

[Fergal O'Connor @a_fergal]

Great to get published with Dr.'s Rana, Yerushalmi and Kim "Asynchronous market efficiency in #gold and #silver markets: A local currency lens" https://t.co/ZyLNUQYKz3

[Fergal O'Connor @a_fergal]

@wmiddelkoop Demand in tonnes is down

[Fergal O'Connor @a_fergal]

I'll be talking about the Economics of No- and Low-alcoholic drinks @pintofscienceIE in Cork this year in the Liberty Bar on Monday, May 18th, along with research talking about Mothers&Others and AI @UCC @CUBSucc Tickets are free here - https://t.co/hkiOyGiBxS

[Fergal O'Connor @a_fergal]

Lovely to chat with @AJDemas about gold and silvers record year @thedispatch "What’s Behind Gold’s Rally?" https://t.co/cy1ZDvE0v8 @CUBSucc @UCC

[Fergal O'Connor @a_fergal]

The Financial News has this as a type of uncertainty barometer on its front page in the top left through the 1920s. Love that one of the market conditions was "Dull."

[Fergal O'Connor @a_fergal]

@JanGold_ This is a great quote!

[Fergal O'Connor @a_fergal]

@TaviCosta Gold and silver prices are available back to the 1200’s.

[Fergal O'Connor @a_fergal]

@richohagan @UCC @CUBSucc Agree to disagree, in a longer form piece I could have done more on bitcoins positive aspects but I stick by the main thrust of the article which is that 1) central bank and 2) consumer demand mean that gold is unique and IMHO a better investment.

[Fergal O'Connor @a_fergal]

Lots to talk about in the #Gold market ATM with record prices, steep sell-offs and prices holding above $4,000 so far. Some thoughts from me here in relation to this and the dissimilarities between Gold and Bitcoin. @UCC @CUBSucc https://t.co/uBVOqMsKuJ

[Fergal O'Connor @a_fergal]

@Rory_Shamrock @UCC @CUBSucc New supply of gold is 1.5% of stock PA - unsure of the number for bitcoin, but they both have very small flow vs stock. Not bias. Mining is not the factor that drives these prices-they are price takers as researched here (by me in case that is also bias): https://t.co/Kqgg1VjmXX

[Fergal O'Connor @a_fergal]

@ConorMcAleavey @UCC @CUBSucc @bullionvault They do, but in response to price adn the change is not significant - only about 1.5% of the total stock is mined each year so even if they push production its not going to be even 2%.

[Fergal O'Connor @a_fergal]

@ConorMcAleavey @UCC @CUBSucc @bullionvault Gold miners are price takers, see a paper I did-they follow the price, not the other way around. It's a similar issue for bitcoin - the stock is massive relative to flow of gold or bitcoin.Recycling & sales from vaulted gold a more elastic form of supply. https://t.co/Kqgg1VjmXX

[Fergal O'Connor @a_fergal]

@nialljburke @ConorMcAleavey @UCC @CUBSucc @bullionvault Bitcoin is another asset people should hold in a diversified portfolio, as they should hold gold. But gold is unique due to its significant physical sources of demand and long-run central bank holdings. And to me, that makes gold more robust long term.

[Fergal O'Connor @a_fergal]

@CryptoChuu @UCC @CUBSucc Jewellery and central bank holdings are what make gold different to bitcoin, diverse sources of demand - that's my main point. Gold and Bitcoin both have ETFs so they are the same to me in that regrard.

[Fergal O'Connor @a_fergal]

@ConorMcAleavey @UCC @CUBSucc Gold is easily divisible-go to @bullionvault or similar companies and you can but small amounts. You can sell gold from anywhere as long as you havent taken delivery, so it is instantly portable with a vaulting company or an ETF, not sure what you mean on the price inelasticity.

[Fergal O'Connor @a_fergal]

@JanGold_ There was a London gold futures contract briefly in the 1930s

[Fergal O'Connor @a_fergal]

Whenever gold comes up someone quickly says Keynes called it a "barbarous relic" (https://t.co/wBGDGTuDeG @lesliehook @iankmsmith), but he was referring to the Gold Standard. So are central banks ignoring this and heading for a new gold standard with all these purchases? 5/n

[Fergal O'Connor @a_fergal]

A growth perspective explains why gold's annualised returns have been 8% over 50 years. CB demand in the last 3 years has also been broad-based, with not just Asian banks adding to demand, but also major purchases from Poland and with even Ireland doubling its gold reserves. 4/n