@nellyeeee True bro, Warriors are made in war conditions, not in prosperous peaceful environment. The only way to truly learn the market is in chops and downtrends (because its psychicly harder to short than long). ๐๐
Market Outlook
Been a while since I made one of these
Macro:
Core macro thesis
Q2 - bullish(Q2 trend ending now/soon)
Q3- bid dries up in risk assets; strong assets build out consolidation ranges, weaker assets pullback; I think BTC pulls back into 60s
Q4 - Fake out off open into strong uptrend
BTC pulls back June - August; Consolidates & compresses into September; Head fakes & rips Oct into Dec
Will have to make adjustments if Q4 isn't bullish
Medium Term:
Trend since the start of April shows clear signs of momentum loss; price feels heavy
If we see price trade up into 82-84k zone it's a clear hedge or swing short zone
If price accepts over 84k we could see 100k+ but I consider this very unlikely
If we see price trade down & consolidate between 74-71k expect 60s to come shortly after
Closing Thoughts:
This bear phase has crushed most everyone's optimistic view on the future; if you weren't long equites you have massively underperformed; But don't forget BTC is the most reflexive asset in the world, "All is takes is one green candle for everyone to believe again"
BTC is the largest holdings in my port with Equities as a close second
The ability to adapt is essential in markets & many crypto participants are stuck in their old ways waiting for 2018 or 2021 style alt runs; I don't see this coming anytime soon
I feel pretty confidently BTC will have a strong wave of out performance later this year or next
Goal moving forward is to defend drawdown in Q3 & then be set to print in Q4
If you enjoyed this post & want me to keep sharing press like/rt(No sponsor, writing purely for my love of CT)
Godspeed friends
Today's plans:
if we dont top here, itll look pretty nasty.
for bears: top here, reclaim 1H trend and continue down momentum.
for bulls: chad up, hold dvah + agressive buyer flows.
A lil dispersion between 1H Trend on CME and binance chart, i will not be scammed!๐ โโ๏ธ
gonna cut if we get weak response at todays dvah and reenter short on the sweep + 1H trend high tag
A little mix up - SPX:
Broke 4h Dominant Trend.
For MTF context ill bring out vwaps -
quarterly vah (very respected) is the place to bottom for momentum to continue.
if we lose it, decent chance we rotate to qvwap + yvah