Stop bombing civilians (Aaron)

RT ≠ endorsements or that I even bothered to read it

[Stop bombing civilians (Aaron) @aa80233]

@calvinfroedge Wait, what gigantic crude buy? How large?

[Stop bombing civilians (Aaron) @aa80233]

@AlwynS18 "This is what it sounds like when doves cry."

[Stop bombing civilians (Aaron) @aa80233]

@maria_rosaaaa @clashreport Totally

[Stop bombing civilians (Aaron) @aa80233]

@AlHadath You guys are trash. Last time it was nothing but market manipulation

[Stop bombing civilians (Aaron) @aa80233]

@AlwynS18 I completely agree! I don't get why people in America and Israel see this as so myterious. It might even have been Netanyahu's idea.

[Data Driven Stocks @stockdatamarket]

Oil went up to where I told it to go

[Anish Moonka @anishmoonka]

A home used to cost about three years of a normal salary. Now, in city after city, it costs five, ten, sometimes fifteen or more. Your parents lived through the one short stretch in history when an ordinary wage could buy a place to live.

For almost all of human history, land was the main thing a family owned and the main thing it passed down. Which is why relatives fought over it. A patch of ground was the line between standing on your own and working someone else's. The joke in that tweet lands because the fight has gone quiet, and that silence is new.

Ordinary people owning their own home is only about a hundred years old. Before that, a home loan, if you could get one at all, covered only part of the price, ran just a few years, and ended with a big final payment most people couldn't make. So most families rented, or stayed put on whatever they already held. Then came the long home loan, the kind you chip away at a little each month for decades. Add a long stretch of steady growth in the mid-1900s, and for the first time a factory worker or a schoolteacher could own the roof over their head.

It worked for about fifty years. Then, starting in the late 1990s, the price of a home pulled away from what people earned, first in a handful of countries, then across much of the world. In England a home cost about three and a half times a worker's pay in 1997. Today it is more than seven. American prices, adjusted for inflation, barely moved for most of a century, then began climbing around 1997 and never came back down. In the hardest cities, Hong Kong, Sydney, Vancouver, a home now swallows ten to sixteen years of everything a household brings in.

The reason is mostly dull. The world stopped building enough homes in the places people want to live, and let the homes that exist become a place to park spare cash. When more people keep chasing too few homes, it is the land that gets bid up. Pay didn't follow.

So the young buy later, or never. A first-time buyer in Britain now needs about twice as many years of income as their grandparents did. It isn't hopeless. Plenty of people shut out at thirty still get there by forty, and some are helped in by family.

But that last part is the quiet twist. As a salary buys less and less of a house, the people your age who own a home are, more and more, the ones whose parents already owned one. The land never went anywhere. The fight over it is just arriving a generation late.

[Stop bombing civilians (Aaron) @aa80233]

@AlHadath While potentially interviewed by media outlets regarding the economic impacts of conflict, Sterne has no professional background in diplomacy, mediation, or geopolitics. View full professional details at LinkedIn. [1, 2]"

[Stop bombing civilians (Aaron) @aa80233]

@AlHadath According to Gemini, "Gabriel Sterne is not a qualified source for information regarding peace processes, as his 30-year career is strictly focused on global macroeconomics and sovereign debt.

[Stop bombing civilians (Aaron) @aa80233]

@Rob9152 @SeeRacists Hey, we all have bad apples; it's not reflection on the group. I have to admit Trump is straight (I guess).

[Rick J @rickjeff78]

Every fake peace deal announced by Trump is having less and less of an impact bringing oil down. The manipulation is losing its effect.

Energy sector is only going one direction: Up.

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

This chart tells you the Iran War oil shock is over.

Brent peaked at $130 on the war. Ceasefire pulled it back to $100.

Consensus: the spike is behind us, normalization is underway.

But 3 of the most credible voices in oil told the market the chart has it backwards.

ExxonMobil's SVP Neil Chapman: inventories at "really, really low levels," physical Brent at $150–160 in 2 to 3 weeks.

Chevron's CEO Mike Wirth: $80 is the floor case, upside reaches "very high numbers."

Vitol's MD Tom Baker: the turning point comes when refineries need molecules and they aren't there.

What this chart isn't showing:
the buffers that absorbed the shock haven't run out yet.
The ceasefire reduced fear, not supply. ~14 mbpd is still offline.
Commercial crude is now 3% below the 5-year average.
Distillate is also 3% below both crossed the threshold this week per today's EIA print.

The chart is showing pre buffer exhaustion prices.

Chapman is calling the post-buffer-exhaustion print.

I broke down the buffer math and the week by week play by play for the 6 oil-direct names in The Merchant's Portfolio in my latest edition.

The market is reading this chart as the end of the shock. The smart money is positioning for the second leg.
Read the full edition👇

[Stop bombing civilians (Aaron) @aa80233]

@Osint613 What was the main reason?

[Stop bombing civilians (Aaron) @aa80233]

@WW3_Monitor I wouldn't hit everything because they have to leave some things as leverage against American escalation, but I'd be even a bit more aggressive, and I'd be working as fast as possible behind the scenes on nukes.

[Gavin @GavMcCracken]

Someone shorted 15mil barrels of crude futures (paper) tonight.

I'm fucking done with this stupid fucking market.

Fuck the fucking man and their ability to manipulate things until we have a fucking supply shortage.

Free markets are fake.

I will continue holding oil producers.

[Stop bombing civilians (Aaron) @aa80233]

@GavMcCracken Goodnight, it'll be alright, eventually

[Stop bombing civilians (Aaron) @aa80233]

@apickledherring @GavMcCracken That's what she said.

[Stop bombing civilians (Aaron) @aa80233]

@GavMcCracken Sir, are you implying that my government, the United States government, the government that gave us freedom and Jesus, is lying? Now, look, I know we have different religions, you guys worship Celine Dion and, who the f*** is that guy who created the metric system...