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Global economics, Investments, politics

[Jensen Huang @JensenHuang]

For my first post, I’m sharing a letter @NVIDIA signed on why open models matter.

AI will transform every industry, power every company, and be built by every country.

Open models strengthen safety and cybersecurity, accelerate innovation and diffusion, and enable sovereignty.

The world needs both frontier closed models and frontier open models.

https://t.co/AUKzoQ5Ikb

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

Athletes obsess over aging & "decline" because the maximum of a variable/competitiveness decrease faster than the average.

Regular people away from their max potential can actually age in reverse, by training, increasing muscle mass, bone density, & aerobic capacity --while enjoying life.

Ignore athletes, obsessives over that rapidly wasting asset.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

AI is the single greatest innovation in human history.

The only thing that comes close is splitting the atom.

Every economic system we've ever built runs on the scarcity of knowledge. Lawyers, doctors, experts of every kind… they get paid because what they know is scarce.

With AI, knowledge is now infinite. That breaks everything. Our entire economic model, as well as our understanding of what humans do, and what we're for.

This is the Exponential Age. I've been mapping this out for years across @RealVision and GMI, piecing it together as it unfolded. Today I wrote a full breakdown that pulls it all into one place.

Link below.

[حمد @HamadAlMajidi]

الله يعوض مستثمري لوسيد

لطالما ذكرت أن أفضل حل للشركة هو تحويلها لشركة خاصة والنظر في صناعة سيارات أرخص و مراجعة التصاميم و خطوط الانتاج ، لكن حتى هذا الحل عفى عليه الزمن وهو حاليا غير مجدي

أفضل شركات السيارات اسما و تقنية و هوامش ربحية، تعاني اليوم أمام المد الصيني الجارف

فما بالك بشركة خاسرة منذ تأسيسها و لا تعرف تصنع سيارة بربحية، كان عندها سنين قبل غيرها، لكنها غرزت ولا عرفت تطلع أو تنزل من تكاليفها

لكن ماعتقد باقي وقت لأي تغيير جديد سواء في الادارة أو أي شي، الموضوع ما يسوى و الشركة لا تستحق أن يتم ضخ أموال فيها لصناعة السيارات

إما تحويلها لاستخدامات أخرى بمجالات مختلفة سواء قيادة ذاتية أو غيره، أو أن يتم تركها لتفلس

كان ممكن إنقاذها قبل عدة سنين، لكن غياب التحرك و التغيير كان قاتل للاسف

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Now, Class, repeat after me. I will never buy cyclicals at low PEs and record earnings. Say it again. I will never buy cyclicals at low PEs and record earnings.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Morgan Stanley: "Arguments that AI will be disinflationary and lead to lower policy rates should be re-examined and possibly rejected. First, the state of the business cycle will dominate. Second, the disinflationary effect is one of many; more productivity should also mean more demand, both through consumption and investment spending. Finally, faster productivity growth means higher equilibrium interest rates – r*, as economists say – further confounding the case for rate cuts. The simple argument is almost surely wrong."

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

Agreed

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

The NASDAQ is 97.5% correlated to total global liquidity.

It has almost nothing to do with earnings or how good the companies are, and everything to do with how much money the world's central banks are printing.

The small slice that liquidity doesn't explain is the NASDAQ's own adoption curve sitting on top.

This is why everyone keeps saying equities are expensive. They're using a measure that stopped working the moment we started debasing currency. A high valuation doesn't really tell you a company is doing well anymore, it tells you how much money has been printed.

This is the heart of my Everything Code framework. Once you understand that liquidity is the key driver of all asset prices, the market stops behaving like a mystery and starts running like clockwork.

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

JULY 1st, 2026 - FOR THE RECORD:

The Zeberg Business Cycle(TM) COI Cross-over has just been confirmed. We are in CONTRACTION PHASE.

But - the Recession Probability is at 5.28% according to traditional ways of forecasting Recessions. See chart below!

This number by-the-way was 6.05% in January 2008, when the Recession was 2 months old.

Remember - my COI cross-over does NOT mean immediate Recession. We need Imminent Recession Indicators to flash. THEN - I will call it. But we are closing in.

But - oh boy - the Financial Industry is going to run over the edge again with full speed.

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

According to the "Zeberg-Salomon Protocol" - today is the day you rotate out of SP500 and into Long-duration US Government Bonds.

Not saying this is the TOP (it is not!) in SP500 - but rates are about to come down - and hence Bonds to rally.

Following the Protocol since 1975 would have out-performed the SP500 by 6X.

Stay tuned!

[Patient Investor @patientinvestor]

You have 12 months left to buy the Magnificent 7 before the cash flow explosion begins:

[Jon Erlichman @JonErlichman]

Chip stocks that have doubled or more this year:

SanDisk: +819%
Micron: +302%
Intel: +279%
Marvell: +250%
Arm: +225%
Astera: +197%
Applied Mat: +185%
AMD: +169%
Lam Research: +149%
Teradyne: +146%
KLA: +142%
GlobalFoundries: +132%
Macom: +116%
Coherent: +110%
Entegris: +108%

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

AI capital expenditures has now hit an astounding 8% of GDP!

This surpasses every single bubble in history.

With most of this buildout funded through private credit & demand driven by circular financing, it's unclear what the consequences will be when the bubble finally pops.

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

In 5 days, we will have the official RECESSION Signal form the "Zeberg Macro Navigation Framework".

This is the 2nd step out of 3 to declare, that the Recession has begun.

It is the structural signal, which tells us, that the Economy has now deteriorated enough to begin rolling backwards - only the market participants have not understood that yet.

Their recognition of this is the final step 3, which we will now await.

Let me be clear:
- It does NOT mean imminent recession
-it does NOT mean that markets will crash now (on the contrary)

But - it DOES mean that both of these are coming. Soon! And step 3 will say: "WHEN".

Customers will be informed about the consequences of the above asap!

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

The Business Cycle Model has never been wrong.

LEI cross-over leads to COI cross-over - which means Recession is closing in.

"WHEN" - is given by the "Imminent Recession Indicators".

Now - watch the difference between "Real Macro" - and the Cartoon-Macro theories supplied by Economists and Analysts.

More to come!

[Abdullah @Teleinvesting]

صناديق المؤشرات المتداولة ETF ممتازة اذا مداك طويل وتبي تشتري بشكل دوري ، وماتبي تعرف شي عن الأسهم لكن وحط خطين تحت لكن : الشراء بمبلغ كبير دفعة واحدة نكبة حتى في الETF اذا وافقت سوق متضخم .

خذ مثال عندك : اللي اشتروا في الصناديق الاستثمارية المشتركة في 2006 بمبلغ كبير دفعة واحدة كلهم خسروا وخسروا كثير بعد . مدير الصندوق الفنان مايقدر يسوي لك شيء . انت شاري الوحدة بسعر متضخم .

وللأسف سعر الشراء هو كل شيء .

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Most people do not realize how many tech giants are already deep bear market territory.

Tech Stocks From Record Highs:

1. Coinbase, $COIN: -69%
2. Oracle, $ORCL: -57%
3. Salesforce, $CRM: -57%
4. ServiceNow, $NOW: -56%
5. Netflix, $NFLX: -48%
6. Palantir, $PLTR: -48%
7. Microsoft, $MSFT: -37%
8. Meta, $META: -32%
9. Arm Holdings, $ARM: -27%
10. Broadcom, $AVGO: -26%
11. Marvell Technology, $MRVL: -20%
12. Nvidia, $NVDA: -19%
13. Amazon, $AMZN: -19%
14. Alphabet, $GOOGL: -17%
15. CrowdStrike, $CRWD: -15%
16. Apple, $AAPL: -14%
17. Taiwan Semiconductor, $TSM: -12%

The S&P 500 won't tell you this.

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

Uh oh... CNBC just admitted AI demand is falling and that's why SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI are rushing to go public.

If CNBC is telling you this, the party is already over. 🚨

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

So let me get this straight...

1) Semiconductor stocks are up 107% this year.

2) The Mag 7 names are down 8% because they're spending hundreds of billions on semiconductors.

3) The market expects this capex cycle to continue indefinitely.

Have I got that right?

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Semiconductor stocks are now up 246% over the last 14 months, surpassing the 234% surge during the peak of the dot-com bubble.

The AI mania has taken semis to a place only seen once before.

History doesn’t repeat, but extremes tend to rhyme.

Video: https://t.co/WStwCcfM0J