Aadi Remmik

Macro & commodities analytics.

[Aadi Remmik @AadiRemmik]

@tonista_ Noored on bränditeadlikud. Arvestades, et majanduspoliitikas on laual: sotsid, REsotsid, Isotsid, KEsotsid ja EKREsotsid, siis miks mitte juba tõesti originaali valida? Adidas vs Adibass vs ...

(PP on *pisut* erinev, aga seni ka selles mitte väga veenev)

[Aadi Remmik @AadiRemmik]

@AndrewPerpetua Why don't we just buy up all the jet engines from China? Chinese sell to the highest bidder, they don't give a s%it about Russian "allies" once money is on the table.

[Aadi Remmik @AadiRemmik]

@mbohnert @BurggrabenH - Raising fuel prices to balancing levels would either unleash HUGE inflation wave or cause CBR to raise interest rates to 20% range at least - non-military economy would outright collapse. Both are unpleasant outcomes.

[Aadi Remmik @AadiRemmik]

@mbohnert @BurggrabenH Market prices would be the most logical solution to find balance. However, there are two particular issues:
- Logistics. Russian oil and fuel logistics are based on pipelines - efficient but rigid. That is also broken to an unknown extent (was not the case in the end of USSR).

[Aadi Remmik @AadiRemmik]

@RusOilGasExpert IMHO, if "things" continue, RU domestic prices for oil products will *exceed* intl market prices in a week on two?

[Aadi Remmik @AadiRemmik]

@JayinKyiv Good point! The last time RU bond yield was at the same level (end of 2024), central bank interest rate was at 21% (or +5% of bond yield). Now it's 14.25% or (-2.5% of bond yield). Should be free money for banks to borrow from CB and buy bonds. But no...

[Aadi Remmik @AadiRemmik]

@DarioCpx That said, I wouldn't completely exclude the possibility that oil market was also heavily manipulated *before* SoH crisis began and the real demand was/is way lower than what's been recorded. If that's the case, then flip to contango would not be outrageous.

[Aadi Remmik @AadiRemmik]

@BlackLabelAdvsr I honestly don't understand posts like this one. Well, US is much richer these days and Europe does have plenty of problems, mostly own goals. But how does it hurt your a**? Be happy and celebrate!

[Aadi Remmik @AadiRemmik]

@DarioCpx What do you think of the bond yields behavior? UK and EZ yields down heavily (30-40 bp) from the top, while US and Japan basically stay at the top (down 10 bp or even less).

[Aadi Remmik @AadiRemmik]

@MrMatthewTodd It seems climate change is one of the many unpleasant phenomena we simply cannot do anything serious about. At least with the current technology. Then again, climate cooling would be way worse. Relax, adapt and develop new technologies.

[Aadi Remmik @AadiRemmik]

@JavierBlas All tankers loaded before Feb 28 and floating storage should be discharged by now. Physical shortage should manifest itself already..

Anyways, if the physical shortage will *not* appear in May, it will likely not appear at all. Oil prices could CRASH in June.

[Aadi Remmik @AadiRemmik]

@JavierBlas Some things don't seem to add up. 13 mbd supply cut and prices around $100. How?
- Marginal demand has *already* disappeared (but where? China?)
- Supply was previously (much) larger than official data
- Supply from Gulf is today larger than official data

[Aadi Remmik @AadiRemmik]

@JavierBlas What if the actual oil demand has been much lower all the way? Camouflaged by the increase in strategic reserves, esp China?

[Aadi Remmik @AadiRemmik]

@viljararakas Eriti bitch on liitintress siis, kui ka intressi*määr* samal ajal tõuseb. Seda trendi võib väärata ainult globaalne kriis, mis on teistpidi pisut jama.
Rääkimata maksumaksjate/ülalpeetavate suhtarvu tõusust, mis on samuti kasvav ja kiirenev.
Riigivõla "optimum" on NULL.

[Aadi Remmik @AadiRemmik]

@viljararakas Meil on sellest aastast üldine maksuvaba tulu määr, hinnaga ~750 milj €, mida finantseeritakse *täielikult* võlaga. Aastane täiendav intressikulu ~30 milj €, mida finantseeritakse *samuti* uue võlaga. 2027 maksab see 780 m €, 2028 juba 812 m € jne. Liitintress on bitch.

[Aadi Remmik @AadiRemmik]

@robin_j_brooks There is one month delay. March tax revenues reflect Feb oil prices. Windfall will materialize in April.

[Aadi Remmik @AadiRemmik]

@OilCfd Roughly 11-12 mbd missing? Sounds logical. When is it going to really bite? GFC took 3 (!) mbd off demand. Where has the price to go to balance out 11 mbd of demand? And what'll be left of the global economy?
What's the source of this data?

[Aadi Remmik @AadiRemmik]

@energy_blogger It took GFC to cut global demand by 3 bpd. Covid lockdowns cut by 26 bpd. Cutting demand by 10 bpd without lockdowns would take pretty serious economic crisis.

[Aadi Remmik @AadiRemmik]

@wokeup2o2o @TIME All correct.
They said, vote for Kamala and you'll get the war with Iran!
I went out and voted for Kamala and got the war with Iran.

[Aadi Remmik @AadiRemmik]

@chigrl @DiMartinoBooth @business Houthis are the problem there.