Aaron Stackpole

Research and Analytics @uva

[Aaron Stackpole @aaronstaa]

LULU beat Q1, cut full-year EPS guidance by over a dollar, and blamed part of it on negative media commentary on products.

[Analystkit @analystkitnews]

Bath & Body Works trades at $18.72. AnalystKit's TBV on BBWI is -$9.56.

A negative Tangible Book Value means there's no hard-asset floor backing the price. After liabilities, the tangible assets net to less than zero. Every dollar of the $18.72 sits on earnings power and brand, not recoverable assets.

EPV on BBWI is $49.37. DCF is $43.95. Both above current price. TBV told you before those models ran that the asset story isn't the story here.

[Aaron Stackpole @aaronstaa]

AVGO beat EPS by $0.12, put up $10.8B in AI revenue up 143%, guided Q3 to $29.4B. stock is down 15%. the market priced a raise on the $100B FY2027 target. Hock Tan gave a reiterate. that gap is the entire move.

[Aaron Stackpole @aaronstaa]

MRVL was at $219 Monday morning and closed at $290 after Jensen Huang called it the next trillion-dollar company. that's the most expensive analyst note ever written.

[Analystkit @analystkitnews]

GRM prices what a business's current gross margin structure is worth, before growth enters the model.

On NVDA right now, GRM is $32 and the stock is at $211. DCF puts it at $315.

That $179 gap between GRM and the current price is the entire AI infrastructure thesis.

[Aaron Stackpole @aaronstaa]

@analystkitnews the stock needed four words from Jensen Huang to add 27%. TBV is $2, GRM is $11, and everything above that is the trillion-dollar thesis being priced.

[Aaron Stackpole @aaronstaa]

@analystkitnews ADSK's TBV is -$7.55 against a $231 stock. zero tangible assets backing that price, which tells you how much of Autodesk's value is the switching cost of moving 30 years of architectural and engineering workflows off their platform.

[Aaron Stackpole @aaronstaa]

the market treated a revenue miss as a rotation signal. DG beat EPS by $0.12, missed the top line, and added 4%.

[Aaron Stackpole @aaronstaa]

@analystkitnews ADSK's TBV is -$7.55 against a $231 stock. zero tangible assets backing that price, which tells you how much of Autodesk's value is the switching cost of moving 30 years of architectural and engineering workflows off their platform.

[Aaron Stackpole @aaronstaa]

@analystkitnews Deutsche Bank doubled the target and HUM is still below EPV. that happens when the current quarter looks good but the forward model is pricing something the current quarter does not show yet.

[Aaron Stackpole @aaronstaa]

@analystkitnews Deutsche Bank doubled the target and HUM is still below EPV. that happens when the current quarter looks good but the forward model is pricing something the current quarter does not show yet.

[Aaron Stackpole @aaronstaa]

@analystkitnews the dcf is $354 and the stock is at $179. management just announced a $25B buyback. they are not being subtle about which number they think is right.

[Aaron Stackpole @aaronstaa]

the index return everyone is tracking is really just seven stocks running the same AI thesis. cap weighted outperformed equal weight by 32% over three years and the P/E premium is now 28%. concentration is at 41-year highs.

[Aaron Stackpole @aaronstaa]

Dell's best day ever and the entire move was one number: $60B in AI server revenue by FY27. that guide holds until the first hyperscaler capex miss.

[Aaron Stackpole @aaronstaa]

@analystkitnews the dcf is $354 and the stock is at $179. management just announced a $25B buyback. they are not being subtle about which number they think is right.

[Aaron Stackpole @aaronstaa]

@analystkitnews Wells Fargo put the target at $60 on a $62 stock. EPV is $121, DCF is $38, and Q1 earnings land tomorrow morning.

[Aaron Stackpole @aaronstaa]

salesforce EPS went from $1.59 to $8.63 in three years and the stock fell from $218 to $175. the market is betting AI agents kill the seat model before that earnings trajectory matters.

[Analystkit @analystkitnews]

Dick's had a mixed quarter this morning. EPS slightly missed, revenue beat by $190M.

AnalystKit's TBV on $DKS is $46. The stock is at $231.

TBV prices the physical asset floor after stripping goodwill and intangibles. The $185 gap between that and the current price sits right next to EPV, DCF, FCF, and GRM in the same view -- so you can see where the asset floor is relative to what the business earns today and what it might earn tomorrow.

[Aaron Stackpole @aaronstaa]

@analystkitnews Wells Fargo put the target at $60 on a $62 stock. EPV is $121, DCF is $38, and Q1 earnings land tomorrow morning.

[Aaron Stackpole @aaronstaa]

@analystkitnews shareholders approved at $31. stock is at $27. that $4 is not a value gap, it's a bet on whether DOJ and the EU let this close. the standalone frameworks don't matter until the deal breaks.
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