Abdullah Tariq

Podcast Host @TheCommonVIP | Business Mgmt Professional | FMCG Specialist | LUMS MBA

[Kevin Carpenter @kejca]

Charlie Munger: "There is an old German proverb I've always liked and it says, 'Man is too soon old and too late smart.' And that's true whether you're Benjamin Franklin or Joe Klutz. We all live with that problem."

"If we got a chance to do [our lives] again, we would do it better. However, the number of people who ever got a chance to do it again is zero."

(Daily Journal AGM || 2021)

[Saad @AirlinePilotmax]

It is high time for Pakistan to decisively curtail the operations of Emirates, FlyDubai, and Air Arabia within our borders. These carriers have long exploited the advantage of flying out of a single hub in the Gulf while dispersing across multiple hubs in Pakistan. In doing so, they have captured a disproportionate share of passenger traffic, leaving our own national and private airlines struggling to survive.

This imbalance undermines Pakistan’s aviation industry, erodes the competitiveness of our carriers, and drains valuable revenue that should be retained within the country. By allowing foreign airlines to dominate through aggressive scheduling and market penetration, we risk weakening our strategic aviation assets and diminishing our ability to sustain a strong, independent air transport network.

Pakistan must act with foresight and authority. Regulatory intervention is essential to restore equilibrium, protect our airlines from unfair competition, and ensure that the skies above Pakistan serve national interests first. Limiting foreign carriers’ access will not only safeguard jobs and investments in our aviation sector but also strengthen our bargaining position in international aviation agreements.

The time has come to prioritize our own carriers, nurture their growth, and defend Pakistan’s aviation sovereignty. Without decisive action, we risk becoming overly dependent on foreign hubs, while our airlines fade into irrelevance.

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

JUST IN: On March 31, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar sat across from China’s Wang Yi in Beijing and presented a five-point framework for ending the Iran war: immediate ceasefire, peace talks, civilian protection, restoration of safe Hormuz navigation, adherence to the UN Charter. China commended Pakistan’s mediation and positioned itself as guarantor. The framework builds on a US 15-point proposal relayed through Islamabad. The war that started with American bombs is being negotiated in a Chinese conference room by a Pakistani diplomat. That is the physics of shared vulnerability producing the only exit both superpowers can accept.

China’s bargaining chip is the periodic table. It controls 85 to 90 percent of global rare earth refining and 90 to 93 percent of high-performance magnets. Every Arrow interceptor defending Israel contains Chinese neodymium. Every Patriot missile the US has fired, 2,400 and counting, uses Chinese rare earth magnets in its seeker head. Every F-35 requires over 900 pounds of rare earth materials. Every NVIDIA GPU training the AI models that select bombing targets runs on lithography systems cooled by helium from Qatar and powered by magnets processed in Baotou. China does not need to fire a weapon. It needs to close a refinery. The supply chain of the war runs through the country mediating the peace.

America’s bargaining chip is the market. The US can offer tariff reductions, eased export controls on dual-use technology, and implicit Taiwan Strait stability signals. China needs American consumers, capital markets, and semiconductor design tools more than it needs Iranian oil. The grand bargain is transactional: Beijing delivers a ceasefire and guaranteed rare earth access. Washington delivers market access and a de-escalation signal on Taiwan. Both sides get what they cannot produce alone. Neither side admits what they gave up.

The timeline is compressed to structural inevitability. The April 6 deadline gives five days. The NPT Review Conference on April 27 provides a ratification venue for any nuclear agreement. The Trump-Xi summit has been delayed to mid-May, clearing diplomatic space for Iran resolution first. Every clock is synchronised toward the same convergence. The helium runs out. The interceptors run out. The planting season closes. Or Beijing decides the war should end. All four clocks lead to the same room.

The war exposed a dependency so deep that neither superpower can sustain its position without the other. America cannot replenish interceptor stocks without Chinese magnets until domestic capacity arrives in 2027. China cannot secure Gulf energy imports without American naval withdrawal. The dependency is mutual, asymmetric, and non-negotiable. It cannot be resolved by force. Only by trade. The grand bargain is supply chain physics dressed in diplomatic language.

Pakistan brokered 20 ship clearances through Hormuz. China positioned itself as guarantor. The US relayed 15 points through Islamabad. Iran has not responded. Araghchi says “messages, not negotiations.” The IRGC passed a toll law projecting $100 billion annually. Everybody is building the architecture of a deal while publicly denying one exists.

The war ends in Beijing. Not in the strait. Not on April 6. In a room where a Pakistani diplomat hands a Chinese foreign minister a framework both superpowers pretend they did not write. The grandest bargain of the 21st century will be announced as somebody else’s idea. That is how superpowers negotiate. Through intermediaries, on paper they never touched, for a peace they cannot publicly want.

https://t.co/dAOBBMsgDS

[Rabia Akhtar @Rabs_AA]

Ishaq Dar’s trip to Beijing likely signifies that Pakistan is seeking Chinese endorsement, strategic synchronization, and added diplomatic weight before moving further into a mediation role on the Iran war. It reflects a bid to enlarge Pakistan’s relevance while ensuring that any de-escalatory initiative it carries is anchored in a wider Asian power framework rather than seen as merely servicing a U.S. agenda.

Pakistan has already positioned itself as a possible host for U.S.-Iran talks, has convened Saudi, Turkish, and Egyptian foreign ministers in Islamabad, and China has expressed full support for Pakistan’s diplomatic initiative. Against that backdrop, a trip to Beijing looks less like protocol and more like pre-alignment before a higher-stakes diplomatic push.

What is especially interesting is that this signals Pakistan’s attempt to avoid being trapped in a purely U.S.-centric mediation lane. Islamabad appears to be leveraging its access to Washington and Tehran, but it also knows that any durable regional role it plays must remain acceptable to Beijing, its principal long-term strategic partner. So the visit may reflect a careful balancing act: Pakistan wants to be useful to the United States in crisis diplomacy without appearing to drift strategically away from China. That is a very Pakistani form of statecraft under pressure: not neutrality in the abstract, but calibrated alignment management.

In my view, there is also a harder-edged reading here. Beijing’s support gives Pakistan political cover, diplomatic weight, and a wider Asian approval of sorts at a moment when the war is affecting energy flows, shipping, and the regional balance. Since the Islamabad talks focused significantly on Hormuz and maritime stabilization, consultation with China is not incidental. China has material stakes in Gulf energy routes and every incentive to back a format that reduces escalation without surrendering the diplomatic field to Washington alone. In that sense, the visit may indicate that Pakistan is trying to position itself as a node through which Chinese preferences can quietly enter regional crisis management. That is more consequential than simple mediation.

At the same time, I would be careful not to overread it as evidence of a new Pakistan-China-Iran bloc formation around the war. The more plausible interpretation is subtler: Pakistan is trying to internationalize its relevance while keeping its room for maneuver intact. It is speaking to Iran, hosting Arab states, staying open to a U.S. track, engaging Europe, and now likely consulting Beijing. That suggests not ideological camp politics, but an effort to become diplomatically indispensable in a crisis that has widened faster than anyone expected.

[Najam Ali @najam_ali]

When this war ends, people will realise Pakistan wasn’t passive, it was actively working to contain the conflict.

An effort worthy of the highest global recognition, nothing less than a Nobel Peace Prize.

[Dan Qayyum @DanQayyum]

Pakistan is simultaneously managing Washington's ask, Tehran's conditions, Saudi Arabia's restraint, its own defence pact obligations, and Israeli attempts to collapse the process. Any one of those threads snaps and the whole thing falls apart.

This is the most exposed diplomatic position any state has occupied in living memory.

[Clash Report @clashreport]

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan:

Israel wants the Islamic countries in the region to enter into a long-term dispute with each other.

Our advice to both Iran and the other countries is not to fall into this game set by Israel.

[Sputnik @SputnikInt]

🚨 🌍 Beyond Hormuz: Is Karachi becoming a viable alternative to the Gulf?

As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East prompt shippers to seek alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, Karachi is experiencing an unexpected boom

In 24 days, three private terminals handled over 8,300 TEUs—nearly matching the total transshipment volume from the entire previous year

But is this a temporary spike or a strategic shift? Dr. Khaqan Najeeb, former finance adviser to Pakistan’s Finance Ministry, explained in an interview with Sputnik:

What gives Karachi an edge?

🗣 "Unlike Gulf ports whose access is structurally dependent on the Strait of Hormuz, Karachi sits outside the chokepoint, ensuring uninterrupted access to open sea lanes."

Its proximity to overland routes into Afghanistan and Central Asia offers connectivity Gulf ports cannot replicate without relying on Iran

Can Karachi handle the load?

🗣 "Karachi has demonstrated latent surge capacity… but this should be understood as short-term elasticity rather than sustained capability."

Constraints remain: limited draft depth, berth congestion, slow customs, and weak hinterland connectivity

🔊 "While Karachi can manage shocks, sustained competitiveness will depend on addressing these bottlenecks."

The decisive test

Once risk premiums normalize, Gulf ports will reclaim their edge in scale, speed, and digital integration

💬 "Karachi can retain a meaningful share of traffic by reducing dwell times, streamlining customs, and ensuring predictable pricing."

The goal: shift from a risk-driven alternative to a commercially viable logistics choice

What about Central Asia ambitions?

This surge proves global trade will reroute through Pakistan when necessary

💬 "This episode can catalyze reforms and investments that align geography with policy, enabling Pakistan to position itself not as a contingency option, but as a preferred and reliable gateway."

[Hina Rabbani Khar @HinaRKhar]

Pakistan must stand its ground and be demonstrably and unapologetically pro peace and anti conflict. We ve suffered enough from endless wars & conflict on our borders to know the value of peace. Even if conventional thinking at the moment is pro militarisation & war.

[Zarrar Khuhro @ZarrarKhuhro]

''When Small men begin to cast big shadows, it means that the sun is about to set.' - Lin Yutang

[Salman Akram @salmanakram741]

6th Shahadat anniversary of my beloved brother Wg Cdr Nauman Akram Shaheed. May Allah reward him with the best. Ameen

[E-go @EgoDriv]

Avoid confrontation and you’ll have to deal with more of it.

Be ready for confrontation and confrontation will avoid you.

Nobody wants to fuck with a guy who’s ready for war.

Don’t be a coward.
Cowards die first.

[Mehdi Hasan @mehdirhasan]

It isn’t difficult to hold 2 thoughts, side by side, at the same time:

The people of Iran deserve freedom, dignity, & protection from state violence.

The US & Israeli governments have caused great harm to Iranians and don’t have the best interests of the Iranian people in mind.

[Abdullah Tariq @abdullahtaq]

@najam_ali Or may be you're amongst the learned already

[Abdullah Tariq @abdullahtaq]

@Profitpk @StateBank_Pak I think a simpler explanation for non-finance viewers would have added greater value

[Ammar Siddiqui @theammarsid]

Heard this somewhere and resonated with it so much,

'How much longer, are you going to avoid what you are capable of doing, in order to continue with what you are comfortable doing'.

Just let that sink in.

[Abdullah Tariq @abdullahtaq]

@Gohar_Ejaz1 Exporters need to further optimise their operations, make value-additions, and develop smarter access to Intl markets. Let the REER calibration stabilised at 100 for next 3-5 years, and see how real competition and export lef industry thrives.

[The Holy Quran @AlMosahfEN]

رَبِّ إِنِّي لِمَا أَنزَلْتَ إِلَيَّ مِنْ خَيْرٍ فَقِيرٌ

"My Lord, indeed I am, for whatever good You would send down to me, in need."