If Warsh indicates another hike in 2026, expect:
1. Gold, US equity indices, Bitcoin & crypto to tank.
2. DXY to strengthen.
3. Higher rates would effectively kill oil demand, so oil could weaken a bit.
Else, the reverse holds water.
11/n
The Fed’s September FOMC decision is today at 9:00 pm EAT.
Markets are pricing a 25bp rate hike with 92.8% probability, which would take the Fed funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%.
But the hike itself may not be the biggest market mover.
The real focus: what comes next.
🧵1/n
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