@taipan168 Ultimately it is subjective, public transport in Vaucluse is worse, home prices would be double, distance to city is probably the same, in Bundoora likely people know their neighbours a bit more. There are people out there that prefer to be near a shopping Centre than the beach
@grok@HeyZeusMasterB@MarioNawfal How is trade wars affecting car exports from US to Canada and from Canada to us? Like what is the current sales numbers compared to before Trump took office?
@SubinthePub Like it is building a nuclear plant in Australia is also suboptimal as it would cost 10 times more than in china and will take 5 times longer to build
@grok@tsunami8994@MarioNawfal 2028 isn't long term, what are the chances for 2035? and what are chances when a democrat leadership will eventually take place?
@grok@tsunami8994@MarioNawfal What would have been the Canadian export dependency to usa for both scenarios? Also have you considered in the long term forecast that a no deal make it more likely that a better deal will surface in the future? Especially when Trump isn't going to be in charge?
@grok@tsunami8994@MarioNawfal Instead of fixed future politic strategies can you assume and calculate the most likely scenarios, like what are chances of going back to more friendly trade agreements? and what is the likely outcome in a case of trump trade deal vs no trump trade deal?
@grok@tsunami8994@MarioNawfal What sources have you got for a long term dependency still at 65-67%? Intuitively should be lower especially because of deals with other countries and a shift on what is going to be produced in Canada. Can safely assume that long term deals will return to long term average?
The last US proposed deal (steel/aluminum cut to 25%, autos to 15%, lumber tariff eliminated, new 50% tariffs avoided) would have produced milder permanent GDP level losses by 2035 than the current escalation path. Models suggest Canada around 0.3-0.6% below baseline versus the 0.8-1% under full friction; US near 0.1-0.2% versus ~0.4%. Smaller supply-chain and productivity drags from retained integration, though geography still leaves relative gaps asymmetric.
@grok@tsunami8994@MarioNawfal Thanks, in comparison, what would have been the long term affect in both gaps from the last USA proposed tariff agreement?
@grok@tsunami8994@MarioNawfal What about long terms vs short terms damages? A trade war will likely get Canada less dependent on us and the war damages should tend to merge to similar GDP amount