Abra Props

Sharing daily analysis on player propositions.

[Abra Props @abraprops]

All plays tracked: 32-9 run! 💹
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[Abra Props @abraprops]

Landry Shamet cleared the line in the first half. Another easy cash. ✅

That’s 6 straight winners and we’re now on a 41-11 run. 🫪🔥

The momentum keeps rolling. Thanks to everyone who’s been following along and supporting the page.

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40-11 RUN! 🔥

🏀 Landry Shamet over 5.5 points @ 1.80 (0.75%)
#AlwaysKnicks

Shamet has become an important piece in the Knicks' rotation, especially in road games. I expect him to see somewhere between 21 and 24 minutes tonight, particularly because New York needs floor spacing to create more room in the paint.

On top of that, the Spurs have struggled to contain perimeter shooters, especially those who don't command the same defensive attention as the team's stars. We saw this against OKC with players like Caruso and Jared McCain. In a matchup where Brunson, KAT, and Anunoby will be the primary focus of the defense, Shamet could quietly benefit from the extra attention they draw. That is particularly true in catch-and-shoot situations, which should be available thanks to the defensive help and double teams directed at the Knicks' main scoring threats.

A 66.7% hit rate in road games is already encouraging, but when we apply the expected minutes filter of 21+ minutes, that number jumps to 85.7% (18/21). Of course, I can't predict the future, but that's the type of workload I expect from a player with his current role in the rotation.

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40-11 RUN! 🔥

🏀 Landry Shamet over 5.5 points @ 1.80 (0.75%)
#AlwaysKnicks

Shamet has become an important piece in the Knicks' rotation, especially in road games. I expect him to see somewhere between 21 and 24 minutes tonight, particularly because New York needs floor spacing to create more room in the paint.

On top of that, the Spurs have struggled to contain perimeter shooters, especially those who don't command the same defensive attention as the team's stars. We saw this against OKC with players like Caruso and Jared McCain. In a matchup where Brunson, KAT, and Anunoby will be the primary focus of the defense, Shamet could quietly benefit from the extra attention they draw. That is particularly true in catch-and-shoot situations, which should be available thanks to the defensive help and double teams directed at the Knicks' main scoring threats.

A 66.7% hit rate in road games is already encouraging, but when we apply the expected minutes filter of 21+ minutes, that number jumps to 85.7% (18/21). Of course, I can't predict the future, but that's the type of workload I expect from a player with his current role in the rotation.

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OG Anunoby cleared the 19.5 PR line early in the 3rd quarter. Another easy cash! 5th consecutive hit ✅

We’re currently on an insane 40-11 run. 🔥
Feels like I deserve a little more engagement on this page after this run.

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39-11 RUN! 🔥

🏀 OG Anunoby over 19.5 points & rebounds @ 1.80 (0.75%)
#AlwaysKnicks

Ok, OG Anunoby didn’t show up in the last game and finished just one bucket away from cashing the green light. In fact, he’s now ended two straight games against the Cavs with exactly 18 PR.

The thing is, OG Anunoby tends to be much more impactful on the road. Overall, he owns a 57.1% hit rate (12/21) when playing in New York. However, when playing away from home, that number jumps to 76.2% (16/21), alongside an average of 25.5 PR. His minutes hover around 35, his usage rate rises to 19.7%, and most importantly, his offensive volume increases by +1 shot attempt.

In the playoffs, OG Anunoby is averaging 26.7 PR and has cleared this line in 80% of the games (8/10). Even though he didn’t go over in the two games against the Cavs, it’s worth noting how close he still came. In the first game, he shot just 2/9 from the field, and in the second, he produced below average with only 8 FGA. Considering OG’s road splits, the expectation is that he reaches the 19.5+ PR mark tonight.

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39-11 RUN! 🔥

🏀 OG Anunoby over 19.5 points & rebounds @ 1.80 (0.75%)
#AlwaysKnicks

Ok, OG Anunoby didn’t show up in the last game and finished just one bucket away from cashing the green light. In fact, he’s now ended two straight games against the Cavs with exactly 18 PR.

The thing is, OG Anunoby tends to be much more impactful on the road. Overall, he owns a 57.1% hit rate (12/21) when playing in New York. However, when playing away from home, that number jumps to 76.2% (16/21), alongside an average of 25.5 PR. His minutes hover around 35, his usage rate rises to 19.7%, and most importantly, his offensive volume increases by +1 shot attempt.

In the playoffs, OG Anunoby is averaging 26.7 PR and has cleared this line in 80% of the games (8/10). Even though he didn’t go over in the two games against the Cavs, it’s worth noting how close he still came. In the first game, he shot just 2/9 from the field, and in the second, he produced below average with only 8 FGA. Considering OG’s road splits, the expectation is that he reaches the 19.5+ PR mark tonight.

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San Antonio Spurs Basketball!

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Another excellent read! Julian Champagnie keeps cashing for us.

4th consecutive hit. ✅

Hit the like button if you want more free picks for the playoffs.

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A SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT NIGHT GETS THIS DONE 🫡

🏀 Julian Champagnie over 8.5 points @ 1.86 (0.75%)
#Twolves🐺

It’s hard to see Julian Champagnie shooting this poorly for much longer after games of 2/7 (29%), 2/8 (25%), and 3/9 (33%). Still, we’re basically talking about one extra bucket for him to clear the 8.5 points line.

The Wolves have been heavily focused on stopping Wembanyama, especially during possessions without Gobert on the floor, which has been leaving open space around the perimeter for shooters. That could create solid volume for guys like Champagnie and Vassell, who can capitalize on those catch-and-shoot three-point opportunities.

Even with the recent struggles in efficiency, the volume is still there. If he shoots even slightly less horribly tonight, this could be a solid spot.

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A SLIGHTLY MORE EFFICIENT NIGHT GETS THIS DONE 🫡

🏀 Julian Champagnie over 8.5 points @ 1.86 (0.75%)
#Twolves🐺

It’s hard to see Julian Champagnie shooting this poorly for much longer after games of 2/7 (29%), 2/8 (25%), and 3/9 (33%). Still, we’re basically talking about one extra bucket for him to clear the 8.5 points line.

The Wolves have been heavily focused on stopping Wembanyama, especially during possessions without Gobert on the floor, which has been leaving open space around the perimeter for shooters. That could create solid volume for guys like Champagnie and Vassell, who can capitalize on those catch-and-shoot three-point opportunities.

Even with the recent struggles in efficiency, the volume is still there. If he shoots even slightly less horribly tonight, this could be a solid spot.

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WHO WANTS A FREE NBA PICK TODAY? 🏀

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Naz Reid exceeded expectations and dropped 17 points!
What an excellent read. ✅

Hit the Like button if you cashed. ❤️

[Abra Props @abraprops]

IN NAZ WE TRUST 🫴

🏀 Naz Reid over 10.5 points @ 1.62 (0.75%)
#Twolves🐺

There are two question marks for tonight’s game: Anthony Edwards and Ayo Dosunmu. When A. Edwards doesn’t play, Naz Reid has a 75% hit rate (15/20). When A. Dosunmu doesn’t play, Naz Reid has a 76.2% hit rate (16/21). When both are out, that number jumps to 85.7% (12/14).

And what if both of them play? No problem. I believe today’s analysis goes far beyond just hit rate. Naz Reid has been getting solid minutes over the last 5 playoff games, averaging 27.4 minutes and holding a 100% hit rate on the 10.5 line. On the season, he owns a 95% hit rate (19/20) with an average of 16.1 PPG.

But since this isn’t only about hit rate, despite those very favorable numbers, I believe Naz Reid can be a very interesting piece in this matchup because of his offensive versatility. Reid is a center who can shoot from virtually anywhere on the floor. With Victor Wembanyama likely focused on protecting against bigger offensive threats, we could see him pulled away from the paint, opening up driving lanes for Naz Reid to attack. On top of that, there’s the three-point shooting, where he has been pretty solid lately, shooting 45% over his last 5 games.
For this analysis, it’s essential that we get something close to 27 minutes on the floor from Naz Reid.

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IN NAZ WE TRUST 🫴

🏀 Naz Reid over 10.5 points @ 1.62 (0.75%)
#Twolves🐺

There are two question marks for tonight’s game: Anthony Edwards and Ayo Dosunmu. When A. Edwards doesn’t play, Naz Reid has a 75% hit rate (15/20). When A. Dosunmu doesn’t play, Naz Reid has a 76.2% hit rate (16/21). When both are out, that number jumps to 85.7% (12/14).

And what if both of them play? No problem. I believe today’s analysis goes far beyond just hit rate. Naz Reid has been getting solid minutes over the last 5 playoff games, averaging 27.4 minutes and holding a 100% hit rate on the 10.5 line. On the season, he owns a 95% hit rate (19/20) with an average of 16.1 PPG.

But since this isn’t only about hit rate, despite those very favorable numbers, I believe Naz Reid can be a very interesting piece in this matchup because of his offensive versatility. Reid is a center who can shoot from virtually anywhere on the floor. With Victor Wembanyama likely focused on protecting against bigger offensive threats, we could see him pulled away from the paint, opening up driving lanes for Naz Reid to attack. On top of that, there’s the three-point shooting, where he has been pretty solid lately, shooting 45% over his last 5 games.
For this analysis, it’s essential that we get something close to 27 minutes on the floor from Naz Reid.

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The game is far from over and Mikal Bridges already has 16 points. What a read! ✅

My engagement has been terrible lately, but I hope I helped you out 🫵 Hit the like button if I did.

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BACK HIM TONIGHT 🫡

🏀 Mikal Bridges over 11.5 points @ 1.67 (1%)
#AlwaysKnicks

Something will have to change if the 76ers don’t want Jalen Brunson to have his way with their defense again. What I expect tonight is a stronger defensive focus on Brunson. They will also have to deal with OG Anunoby, who, ever since Anne Hathaway mentioned him, has been playing like Michael Jordan and is coming off two monster games.

With more defensive attention on the Knicks’ main scorers, I think Mikal Bridges could be a solid option tonight. Even though he is averaging 28 minutes over his last 10 games, the most recent ones were blowouts, which dragged that number down. In competitive games, Bridges usually logs at least 30 minutes.

In games where he logs 30 or more minutes, Bridges has a 76.2% hit rate (16/21) and averages 13.8 points per game. Another interesting factor is his strong track record against the 76ers this season, with an 80% hit rate (4/5) and an average of 16.2 points per game. In the one game he did not reach 11 points, he shot 3/16 from the field.

For tonight, that is really the angle. The opportunities should be there, and Bridges is likely to see solid offensive volume. At that point, it just comes down to him not having a terrible shooting night.

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BACK HIM TONIGHT 🫡

🏀 Mikal Bridges over 11.5 points @ 1.67 (1%)
#AlwaysKnicks

Something will have to change if the 76ers don’t want Jalen Brunson to have his way with their defense again. What I expect tonight is a stronger defensive focus on Brunson. They will also have to deal with OG Anunoby, who, ever since Anne Hathaway mentioned him, has been playing like Michael Jordan and is coming off two monster games.

With more defensive attention on the Knicks’ main scorers, I think Mikal Bridges could be a solid option tonight. Even though he is averaging 28 minutes over his last 10 games, the most recent ones were blowouts, which dragged that number down. In competitive games, Bridges usually logs at least 30 minutes.

In games where he logs 30 or more minutes, Bridges has a 76.2% hit rate (16/21) and averages 13.8 points per game. Another interesting factor is his strong track record against the 76ers this season, with an 80% hit rate (4/5) and an average of 16.2 points per game. In the one game he did not reach 11 points, he shot 3/16 from the field.

For tonight, that is really the angle. The opportunities should be there, and Bridges is likely to see solid offensive volume. At that point, it just comes down to him not having a terrible shooting night.

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Duncan Robinson for three!! That was so free ✅

Besides the points play, I also mentioned over 2.5 threes as an option in the breakdown, at +money. Great read!

Hit the like button if you cashed 👍

[Abra Props @abraprops]

100% HIT RATE AT HOME OVER THE L11 GAMES 🫡

🏀 Duncan Robinson over 8.5 points @ 1.60 (1%)
#DetroitBasketball

Duncan Robinson has an 81% hit rate (17/21) across all games. That improves when he plays in Detroit, where his hit rate jumps to 90% (19/21). If we look at a recent sample of his last 11 games, he’s at 100% on the +8.5 points line, averaging 14.6 PPG.

In the series against the Orlando Magic, he cleared the line in 3 of 4 games. Despite averaging exactly 9.0 PPG against them, I expect Detroit’s offensive volume to be higher today, based on the spread being offered by the market. Because of that, Robinson should get his opportunities, he just needs to avoid the kind of poor shooting he had in the one game he missed the line, when he went 1/6 from three and still finished with 7 points.

To wrap up, Robinson also has an outstanding hit rate on the +2.5 3PM line in games played in Detroit, averaging 3.4 made threes over 81 games with a 75.6% hit rate (31/41). The numbers are very favorable for him.

Alternative lines like +9.5 points and +2.5 3PM are also viable options imo.

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100% HIT RATE AT HOME OVER THE L11 GAMES 🫡

🏀 Duncan Robinson over 8.5 points @ 1.60 (1%)
#DetroitBasketball

Duncan Robinson has an 81% hit rate (17/21) across all games. That improves when he plays in Detroit, where his hit rate jumps to 90% (19/21). If we look at a recent sample of his last 11 games, he’s at 100% on the +8.5 points line, averaging 14.6 PPG.

In the series against the Orlando Magic, he cleared the line in 3 of 4 games. Despite averaging exactly 9.0 PPG against them, I expect Detroit’s offensive volume to be higher today, based on the spread being offered by the market. Because of that, Robinson should get his opportunities, he just needs to avoid the kind of poor shooting he had in the one game he missed the line, when he went 1/6 from three and still finished with 7 points.

To wrap up, Robinson also has an outstanding hit rate on the +2.5 3PM line in games played in Detroit, averaging 3.4 made threes over 81 games with a 75.6% hit rate (31/41). The numbers are very favorable for him.

Alternative lines like +9.5 points and +2.5 3PM are also viable options imo.

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❌

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WE’RE SO BACK 🔥
34-10 RUN ON THIS PAGE.

Quick update: after an unfair suspension, my account is active again! If y’all missed me, drop a LIKE or show some love in the comments.

🏀 Jalen Suggs over 13.5 points @ 1.85 (0.75%)
#MakeItMagic

Let’s go with Jalen Suggs again. He’s unbeaten with this group. The Magic guard has been logging strong minutes in the series, averaging 33.7 MPG. Scoring-wise, he’s at 16.7 PPG against Detroit, with 16, 19, and 15 points. What really stands out is the volume: 15.3 FGA per game compared to his 11.5 season average (+4).

With that in mind, I like applying a 28-minute minimum filter for Suggs. Over his last 20 games, he has a 65% hit rate (13/20) with an average of 14.8 PPG. Honestly, I usually prefer working with slightly higher hit rates, but that changes when you filter for matchups against strong defenses vs. position. Suggs tends to step up in tougher games, and his performance against top-10 defenses vs. guards is at 75% (12/16).

Once again, I’m expecting solid offensive volume given the projected minutes. If he gets the 28 minutes, the only real concern is shooting efficiency (FGM), not a lack of volume, which has been well above his norm.

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We’re back on track: 34-10 run! 🔥

Julian Champagnie over 14.5 PR @ 1.88 ✅
That was free!

Smash the LIKE button if you’re riding with me! ❤️

[Abra Props @abraprops]

EXCELLENT HIT RATE IN THE L10 GAMES 🔥

If you’re rocking with me, drop a LIKE or show some support in the comments.

🏀 Julian Champagnie over 14.5 PR @ 1.88 (0.75%)
#PorVida

Very appealing line considering the player’s current form and profile. Julian Champagnie has been a profitable name in ABRA PREMIUM, posting an elite 90% hit rate (9/10) with a 17.0 PR average.

Champagnie generates a big part of his production in spot-up situations, and the Nuggets struggle to defend that type of play (bottom 10). He’s the kind of player who doesn’t need much usage to clear this line, since he doesn’t rely on self-creation.Another strong factor is that players with a similar profile have gone over their PR lines against Denver (5/5).

On top of that, Champagnie performs better on the road. Against the Nuggets specifically, he’s 100% this season, recording 35 PR and 15 PR in their two matchups.Overall, this line looks low considering his form, the matchup, and his recent consistency.

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@rafael_lectzow Está vendo PR ou PRA? Agora que vi que errei na imagem mas acertei na descrição

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EXCELLENT HIT RATE IN THE L10 GAMES 🔥

If you’re rocking with me, drop a LIKE or show some support in the comments.

🏀 Julian Champagnie over 14.5 PR @ 1.88 (0.75%)
#PorVida

Very appealing line considering the player’s current form and profile. Julian Champagnie has been a profitable name in ABRA PREMIUM, posting an elite 90% hit rate (9/10) with a 17.0 PR average.

Champagnie generates a big part of his production in spot-up situations, and the Nuggets struggle to defend that type of play (bottom 10). He’s the kind of player who doesn’t need much usage to clear this line, since he doesn’t rely on self-creation.Another strong factor is that players with a similar profile have gone over their PR lines against Denver (5/5).

On top of that, Champagnie performs better on the road. Against the Nuggets specifically, he’s 100% this season, recording 35 PR and 15 PR in their two matchups.Overall, this line looks low considering his form, the matchup, and his recent consistency.

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@rafael_lectzow Betano 14.5 mais safe e subiu pra @ 1.95

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Correction: This is a 1u play*