On Tuesday, we will be fortunate enough, folks, to know the tone for the night very early on. If you know where to look. Maybe this will give some of you hope of not waiting until 1AM to know where this thing might go:
1) All day, FLORIDA will have live election day turnout numbers. That means knowing how many Repubs/Dems/Inds are voting... it is a red state, BUT again, the trends seen in FL early voting are in other states. So, we will watch for any "surge" from either side in Florida, and it will set the tone for what we might see in other states, such as North Carolina and Georgia.
2) Once again, we will have quick results from Florida bellwethers like Duval and Pinellas by 7:30 easily. Duval has always voted to the LEFT of Georgia in modern history. So... we will watch Duval County early in the night to give us an idea of Georgia.
3) Then, North Carolina + Georgia counting should come in relatively quickly. Obviously, we will watch the urban counties for "blood in the water" as the rurals pour in as well.
Indiana + Ohio will also start coming in earlier in the night, and there are some counties and indicators to watch there.
4) Pennsylvania is a bit of a wildcard, but I hear Allegheny County may drop some results quick. That's a county we can compare the margins to Trump 2016/2020 to see where he may be at.
5) From there, we are likely at 9/10/11PM as we wait for more meaningful results from PA/MI/WI, and of course Iowa... and then NV and AZ. At that point, we hopefully know where the race is trending.
@enthusedman@crensonator@IAPolls2022 Atlas Intel was the most accurate poll in 2020. They just dropped eight polls. Trump was ahead nationally, and in six of the seven battleground states, only Wisconsin was barely for Harris. No chance Iowa goes to Harris.
@EricLDaugh I'm puzzled. Someone help. The one stupid poll in Iowa, Emerson released an Iowa Trump up nine, the rest looks great for Trump, but the markets are plummeting for Trump? Why?
@dennisrumet@EricLDaugh As much as they've demonized Trump over the last 8 years I can't imagine anybody thinking " Well I was going to vote for the guy they've tried to prosecute, impeach, and falsely call a racist, but this joke that an unaffiliated comedian told crosses the line."