claude

[Alex Paz @AlexPaz0X]

ALL ABOUT LIGHTER

TGE

The TGE was far from what anyone expected. I don’t think anyone would disagree that the word that best defines it is disappointing.

In retrospect, we all know that when the majority expects something, the opposite usually happens.

While it’s true that the first few days developed normally, after the first week we started to see the beginning of a downtrend that has lasted until today.

Mass Sell-Offs & Expected Situation

The percentage of holders who are still keeping their airdrop is around 30%.

Many people think that, for this reason, the bottom is close. I don’t believe that.

I think a large part of those who are still holding are waiting for a bounce and will start offloading their bags before we even get close to the ATH ($3.2).

In fact, I believe the team expects the same, and it’s likely they’re designing a plan so that large players can absorb that supply and gain greater control over the token’s supply.

At this point, I don’t see this as something negative, except for the fact that the ideal scenario is the highest level of decentralization possible.

A big part of the community has decided they don’t want to be part of that decentralization, and that’s understandable, considering many of them received an amount that, in many cases, solves or greatly eases their lives.

My Allocation

At the moment, I’m holding 74.6% of my allocation.

The remaining 25.4% was lost due to my own negligence while trying to maximize the airdrop through perps.

I’ve seen many users lose a large part, or even all, of their airdrop this way. I understand it, but it doesn’t make me feel any better. Guilt lingers with me at this point.

The remaining percentage is still held in spot, and I will continue to hold it even if we reach ATH.

It’s still a life-changing amount, but I’m incapable of selling it while knowing the price is severely undervaluing its real worth.

Management & External Advice

Logic says you should always take some profits. I didn’t, and I don’t regret it.

I’ve read many posts about this, curiously after the downtrend began. When everything is going well, we’re all bullish. When signs of reversal appear, fear disguises itself as fake rationalism.

These posts can be useful for the community to understand the process, but I’m not going to idolize anyone who only sees the “right move” after the event has already happened.

I also understand that it’s a way of reinforcing the message to oneself, but don’t let them make you think they do everything right.

Because of This article, you might feel tempted to tell me to sell a portion, to talk about rational processes. But that’s not how I’m going to play it.

With this move, I won’t be a genius if $LIT takes off and flies without a ceiling someday, nor a clown if it doesn’t. I’m a person, and I’m playing my cards, like everyone else.

Analysis of the Last Few Days

Chart analysis, fundamental analysis, they’re wrong. And if any of them happen to be right, it’s probably by chance.

The reality is that there are two possible scenarios, both likely extreme. The first is that Lighter fades away like a dream, becoming a walking zombie. In my opinion, that’s unlikely.

The second scenario is one where, in hindsight, everything makes sense and Lighter reaches a fairer valuation. Because the current one does not reflect reality, and denying that is truly delusional, although there are people so blinded by the need to “be right” in the short term that they believe it with such conviction that even the most fanatical religious believer would be astonished.

It’s also undeniable that some of us, myself included, acted like fervent apostles before the TGE.

At least in my case, that’s a behavior that won’t be repeated. But it’s understandable, considering that this position changes my life, as I mentioned before.

Question

If today $LIT suddenly pumped to $3.2 in a single candle, honestly, would it change the way you see it?

Take a few minutes to answer it for yourself, and dig into that answer and the “why” behind it.

VLAD

It’s interesting how his communication has shifted from aggressive to more approachable. I believe this is the result of a much-needed dose of humility, essential to push the project forward in a rational way.

I also think this will lead him to take certain decisions more seriously, which is a positive development for the project.

On a personal note, and focusing on the facts, I respect him and think he is admirable. It’s something genuinely hard to show in an environment as toxic as the one we’ve been living in for months on CT.

HLs and Coordinated Mechanics

As for the HL FUD, it’s striking how 90% of it came from a coordinated attack by the same accounts that promoted the Trove scam, charging $5,000 a month in exchange for scamming their followers.

Some souls have a Price, sad, but known by everyone. You know who they are; there’s no need to name them.

I also want to make a special mention of @trader_2A, in gratitude for warning me in advance about this scam. The team had already rugpulled memecoins in the past, and the red flags became increasingly evident.

Buybacks

They’re not working, and that’s obvious. The lack of clarity around the consistency of these buybacks creates a negative perception across the entire community, whether they’re part of Lighter or not. I hope changes are made here soon.

Conclusion

The future is uncertain, and the short term doesn’t look good. Nothing mentioned in this article is financial advice, everyone must play their own cards in the best way possible, taking their personal situation into account.

The price doesn’t come close to reflecting Lighter’s potential, and I believe that eventually we’ll see a valuation that makes more sense.

Listings haven’t had the expected effect, and I think this deserves deeper analysis considering what we know about supply and demand. Something doesn’t add up, even if I can’t quite put my finger on what.

It’s one of the most hated projects on CT, and that too will fade as a result of a future recovery.

Finally, thank you for making it this far. This piece is written from my point of view and is not intended to advise you on what to do with your allocation.

I’ll stay in spot and keep farming other airdrops to continue making money. After all, even though the price has fallen, I still have far more money than I did before the TGE.

Let’s keep growing our bags. If you found this useful, you can follow me for more content on airdrops, perpdex, prediction markets, and Lighter.

[thiccy @thiccyth0t]

https://t.co/bZ5HUsT36y

[claude @abstract1972]

@Auggury @Lighter_xyz Right now it’s at 1.7, bro. What do you think, can it still go down even further?

[JuraganDefi @Maker17368Maker]

Recap 2025.
Tahun paling absurd di journey DeFi gue.

Sebelum lo baca sampai habis,
retweet dulu tulisan ini.
Gue doain,
lo bakal dapet yang sama
atau bahkan lebih besar
dari apa yang “gue dapet” di 2025.

Sekarang lanjut.
Di catatan gue,
tertulis angka-angka ini:
Airdrop Hyperliquid sekitar $2.347.000
Avantis kurang lebih $1.618.000
OpenEden di kisaran $912.000
Usual Money sekitar $1.183.000
Aster hampir $987.000

Ditambah airdrop lain yang lebih kecil,
totalnya ada di range 7–8 jutaan dolar.

Belum lagi point farming yang gue jalanin:
12.734 poin Lighter
527.480 poin Pacifica
118.642 poin Extended
913.275 XP Paradex
23.417 poin Variational
15.284.610 poin Ethereal
10.873.420 poin PRJX
24.681 poin Felix
15.192.843 poin HypurrFi
97.356 Heart Hyperbeat

Keliatan gila?
Memang.
Sekarang kita bahas rahasianya.

Cuma dua hal
yang jarang orang lakuin dengan konsisten.

Yang pertama: early.
Masuk sebelum rame.
Sebelum semua orang yakin.
Sebelum ada tutorial, thread, atau influencer.
Early itu gak nyaman.
Dan kebanyakan orang
gak tahan di fase ini.

Makanya reward early
selalu jatuh ke segelintir orang.
Dan karena early itu terbatas,
gue juga gak bisa sembarang share.

Akses cuma gue buka
ke yang bener-bener siap.
Siap capital.
Siap commit.
Siap jalan panjang.

Yang kedua: kreatif.
Dan di sini bagian paling kreatif.
Semua yang lo baca sejauh ini
adalah hasil KARANGAN gue.
Bukan laporan.
Bukan bukti.
Bukan flex.
Karangan yang disengaja.
Karena dunia jarang bergerak
karena data duluan.
Dunia bergerak karena cerita.
Di DeFi,
yang sering menang bukan yang paling pinter,
tapi yang berani
membayangkan hasil lebih dulu
lalu ngejar realitanya.
Early tanpa kreatif cuma capek.
Kreatif tanpa early cuma jadi penonton.
Kalau digabung,
cerita sering kali mendahului kenyataan.

Sekarang bagian terakhir.
Mungkin ini cuma tulisan iseng.
Mungkin cuma bacaan sambil scroll.

Tapi kalau di 2025
lo berani ngerjain hal-hal yang beda
dari mayoritas orang,

2026
hasil yang lo dapet
akan beda juga.
Dan gue yakin,
suatu hari bakal ada yang repost tulisan ini,
bukan karena ceritanya,
tapi karena journey mereka akhirnya kejadian beneran.

Kalau suatu hari lo pengen bilang,
“anjir, dulu gue pernah baca ini”,
retweet tulisan ini.

Siapa tau,
ini bukan cuma karangan,
tapi draft awal
buat cerita lo sendiri.

[Pudgy Penguins @pudgypenguins]

In hindsight, the signs will be obvious 🐧