“Canada Cannot Win a Trade War. It Needs a rational honest Strategy.
The prize in Canada’s confrontation with Washington is continued access to the world’s largest economy, sitting directly next door. The United States is a roughly $32 T market. China may be the second-largest economy, but it is far away and cannot replace the commercial advantages of geography, common infrastructure, familiar legal practices, and deeply integrated North American supply chains.
Canada cannot win a trade war with its largest trading partner. It can defend itself, impose focused costs where it has leverage, and negotiate hard. But it cannot plausibly inflict equivalent damage on an economy many times its size while remaining so dependent on access to that market. The U.S. still takes roughly 72 percent of Canadian goods exports.
That is why the objective should not be performative escalation. Broad retaliatory tariffs may satisfy an understandable desire to hit back, but they raise prices for Canadian families, increase input costs for Canadian firms, and risk making Canada a less attractive place to invest and manufacture. Tariffs can be a temporary, targeted negotiating tool; they are not an economic-growth strategy. Trade wars end at negotiating tables, not through successive announcements of measures that harm one’s own economy.
The reaction from much of Canada suggests that the country has not yet absorbed the seriousness of its predicament. The instinct has been to demand visible defiance, treat retaliation as proof of resolve, and turn a structural economic challenge into an emotional political contest. That is backwards. Performative policies helped bring Canada to its present position; more performative politics will not get it out.
Canada’s vulnerability is not solely the product of Trump Hamiltonian economic strategy. It reflects decades of domestic neglect: weak business investment, stalled productivity, regulatory complexity, barriers to internal trade, delayed infrastructure, and economic policies that too often favour subsidies and protection over competition, capital formation and globally competitive firms.
The consequences are increasingly visible. Canada’s investment per worker was only 85 percent of its 2014 level by 2023, while business research-and-development spending of roughly 1.8 percent of GDP lagged both the OECD average and the United States. These weaknesses did not begin with the present dispute. But the dispute has exposed them.
Emotional responses should not become national strategy. Anger at Washington, and the temptation to reduce everything to hostility toward one American president, obscure a more durable reality: U.S. trade policy is increasingly tied to national security, industrial policy and geopolitical power. That shift will not disappear with one election or one negotiator.
Canada needs firmness without fantasy. But it must also accelerate energy, transport and trade infrastructure; Canada needs to deregulate, improve investment competitiveness; lower internal barriers; strengthen productivity; diversify exports; and restore fiscal discipline.
Canada needs time it’s does not have. Canada needs finesse. Not what has been on display recently.
Canada cannot replace the American market overnight. The task is to secure access to it while fixing the domestic weaknesses that have made Canada so exposed. Decades of neglect are coming home to roost.”
James E Throne
Chief Market Strategist
WellingtonAltus
From my observation, NEPA has actually improved in my area recently. We’ve been getting more stable electricity compared to before, and the difference is noticeable.
Hopefully, this improvement continues and becomes consistent across more parts of Nigeria. 🇳🇬⚡
Who made the US the police of the world to the extent that they can decide what is evil or not.
I know how they got there but what are they feeling like?
"I'm calling out Toyin Omotoso because ashfgaft rispheetebgha.
That's why when afteyabb sgahhtw
Supposing they now said asharye and bsjaopytr, don't worry I am am idiot talking nonsense gaeriyt ahwgesh."
Lots of noise.
Zero value.
100% nuisance.
Hare brains.
Isi komkom