The Treasury, which is behind most of Britain's economic failure for the past 30 years, now wants the power to take money direct from your bank account.
Dystopian
๐จ I spend an enormous amount of time trying to understand the chaos we're living through. Not the headlines. The machine behind them. ๐จ
If you want to understand what Elon Musk is really fighting, and who is really fighting him, this is the clearest map I can give you.
Expensive houses. Expensive schools. Expensive healthcare. Taxes that rise every year while everything gets worse. Borders nobody voted to open. Speech rules nobody voted for.
Most people look at this and blame capitalism. The market failed, they say, so the state has to step in and fix it.
They have it exactly backwards. What they want to fix it with is what broke it. This isn't chaos, and it isn't capitalism. It has a direction, a method, and a hundred-year history. Let me reverse-engineer it.
In 1926, Mussolini's regime threw Antonio Gramsci, co-founder of the Italian Communist Party, into prison. From his cell he asked the question that would shape the next century: why did the revolution win in Russia but fail in the West, where Marx said it was inevitable?
His answer: in Russia, the state was everything, so seizing it was enough. In the West, the state was only the outer wall. Behind it stood the real fortress: the church, the family, the school, the press, the culture. Western workers never revolted because the culture held them.
So the conclusion was simple. Don't storm the palace. Capture the culture. Win the institutions and you never have to win the argument, because you decide which arguments are allowed.
In 1967, the German student leader Rudi Dutschke gave it a slogan: the long march through the institutions. Paris supplied the intellectual software, and I've already apologized for my country's part in that.
Then came the most patient operation in modern history. The students of the 60s became the professors of the 80s. Their students became the journalists, judges, civil servants and HR directors of the 2000s. Their students now run the foundations, the NGOs and the agencies. No single step looked like a revolution. That's exactly why it worked.
The method was communist. The ambition became global. And it grew like a cancer. A cancer never attacks the body head-on. It hijacks the body's own cells and feeds on the body's own resources. This system never had to defeat the West. It just had to make the West pay for it.
In America, the machine found a political home: the Democratic Party. Not the millions of decent people who vote for it. The apparatus. The donor networks, the activist groups, the consultants, the captured agencies that keep moving in the same direction whoever wins.
In Europe, it found something even better. The EU's founders, Schuman, Adenauer, De Gasperi, were Catholic anti-communists who wanted to make war impossible. But they built exactly what the long march dreams of: power that never has to face a voter. A Commission nobody directly elects holds the right to propose laws for 450 million people. Chat Control. The digital euro. Speech rules written in Brussels. Nobody stormed anything. They just drafted it.
Add the World Economic Forum, the UN agencies and the global foundation circuit, and you have the full map. You don't need a secret meeting when everyone went to the same schools, reads the same papers, funds the same NGOs and flies to the same conference in Davos every January. It's not a conspiracy. It's a class with shared incentives. That's harder to fight, because there's no headquarters to raid.
And the billionaires? Most people who became the richest in the world got absorbed. They built something real, then traded it for an aura. Bill Gates is the perfect example: he built the software that ran the world, then became the bankroller of global health bureaucracies and the funder of newsrooms covering his own causes. Laurene Powell Jobs bought The Atlantic. Benioff bought Time. You're not buying a business. You're buying the right to be called good by the people who decide who is good. That's the corruption. Not suitcases of cash. Money for aura, grants for loyalty, NGOs for policy. All legal. All invisible.
Here's the proof it's one system and not a hundred separate problems. Look at what happened to prices over the last 25 years. Everything exposed to markets and technology got cheaper: TVs, software, phones, clothing. Everything controlled by institutions exploded: college, healthcare, childcare. And housing, where you need a committee's permission to build anything. Same country, same economy, same decades. The difference isn't the product. It's who controls it.
Taxes go up and services get worse, because the money doesn't reach the services. It feeds the layers. Immigration happens at a scale no electorate clearly chose, because for a system that lives on managing problems, more problems means more budget. And a two-income family today can't buy the house their parents bought on one salary. That's real poverty, manufactured by a machine that is rewarded for looking good, never for being good.
MAGA isn't the cause of the chaos. It's the immune response. Brexit, the farmers' revolts, the votes shaking every European capital: same thing. The body finally noticed the tumor.
So what we're living through is not a normal political cycle. It's a fight to the death between two models. One runs on the perception of goodness. The other runs on reality.
And it had to be the richest man in the world. Anyone smaller would have been bought, sued or cancelled. Every billionaire before him took the deal. Elon walked out of the club and turned the lights on.
He bought Twitter for $44 billion, opened the Twitter Files and gave the world back a public square where any narrative can be checked in real time. He went inside the government and helped shut down USAID. Now Politico announces that the Democrats' gavels are coming for him. His answer: he'll find out who is really pulling the strings and go after them, not just their puppets.
He has one line he keeps coming back to: he cares about the reality of goodness, not the perception of it. That sentence is the whole war.
Now the part that makes me certain of how it ends.
A lie is expensive to maintain. It needs gatekeepers, censors, fact-checkers, friendly journalists, a budget, and constant repairs every time reality contradicts it. The truth costs nothing to maintain. It just keeps being true.
AI is driving the cost of checking anything toward zero. Any budget, any study, any statistic, any promise, audited in seconds by anyone with a phone. Yes, AI can generate lies at scale too. But producing a lie is cheap. Defending it against a billion instant audits is impossible.
That's what acceleration really means. It doesn't pick sides. It speeds up feedback loops. Systems aligned with reality compound. Systems built on lies hit the wall faster. And you cannot build rockets, design chips or cure diseases with a false model of the world. Physics doesn't read op-eds. The more intelligence we pour into the world, the more expensive every lie becomes.
You cannot scale a lie. You can only scale what's true.
We are close to the collapse of the old order and the birth of a new one. Not the one from the WEF's own 2016 video, "you'll own nothing and you'll be happy." The opposite. An order built on truth-seeking, efficiency, science, private property and free markets. You will own things. You will build things. And you'll be happy, because it will be real.
Gramsci's long march took a century. Its collapse will take years.
History will remember this moment. A man walked into the most powerful machine ever built, refused the deal everyone else took, and chose reality over perception.
I have never been more optimistic.
Here is the Bank of England in its own report calling the bond market crisis in 2022 the "LDI crisis" and admitting two thirds of the bond rate spike was down to LDIs.
They were responsible for financial stability and they failed.
Official figures out this morning report that last month, the UK government borrowed ยฃ24.5 billion.
But the fineprint shows that almost ยฃ11 billion of that extra borrowing went on debt interest payments.
That's more than ยฃ400 per household on debt service costs, in September alone.
So far during this financial year, from April to September, the government's debt interest payments amount to ยฃ61 billion.
Now, this number will barely feature in UK newspapers and across our airwaves. It may be mentioned in passing in out-of-the-way business sections, or on the odd business bulletin.
But this huge debt interest bill won't register with the vast majority of our political and media class, or impact the national debate.
Let me explain why that's so wrong and so dangerous ...
ยฃ61 billion is a massive amount of money.
It's equivalent to the UK's entire annual defence budget โ the money we're paying, increasingly to foreign creditors, simply to service our national debt for six months, not to pay any of it back.
ยฃ61 billion is equivalent to the money you'd raise over a year from adding a whopping 7 pence to the basic rate of income tax.
For ยฃ61 billion, you could build around 40 large, state-of-the-art hospitals, or employ more than 100 thousand extra nurses for ten years.
ยฃ61 billion would pay for free-at-the-point of use social care for everyone who needs it in the UK, for an entire year โย three times over.
Again, this is the debt interest bill on Britain's spiralling national debt โย now more than 3 trillion pounds โย over the last six months alone.
The UK's public finances are close to meltdown โ yet so many MPs and journalists continue blithely to view ever more public spending and borrowing as the answer to every problem.
Those who highlight the dangers post by our hugely precarious national accounts are dismissed as cranks, ideologues or worse.
But basic arithmetic has no ideology.
And there is nothing "progressive" or "kind" or "right-on" about driving the UK ever closer to the fiscal cliff edge, provoking a crisis that will make the "austerity" years of the 2010s feel like a picnic, a crisis in which poorer households will suffer the most.
Yes, Britain's national debt is lower than that of France. But because our borrowing has been rising so sharply, and because we're so prone to inflation, our debt service costs are much higher.
The UK is spending a disgraceful 3.6pc of GDP on public debt interest, while France spends less than 2.5pc.
Endless airtime and column inches are devoted to spurious conversations about a billion or two of additional "fiscal headroom" we may or may not have in three years' time.
And, of course, any "extra headroom" is immediately pledged in new spending โ which means yet more borrowing.
These conversations are a waste of time โย and, in fact, are deeply counterproductive. Three-year fiscal forecasts, even one- and two-year forecasts, routinely turn out to be askew by tens of billions of pounds.
I'm not saying we don't need fiscal rules - we do, but we need more immediate rules, which actually bite, acting as a meaningful constraint on out-of-control borrowing and spending.
Instead, political and media sages present the nation with spuriously precise discussions about fictional fiscal outcomes way into the future โ using rules which are deliberately designed to kick arithmetic realities into the long grass ....
An increasingly expensive, over-bearing, out of control state is not the answer to Britain problems.
But unless we change course, it will certainly be our downfall.
Please like/share if you think what I'm saying is important โ and if fiscal realities should feature more prominently in our national debate.
And for more sharp, plain-speaking economic analysis subscribe to:
"When The Facts Change - economic and politics in a fast-moving world, with Liam Halligan"
Our national debt has just hit ยฃ3 trillion.
We were told by the "grown ups" in both parties that putting up taxes, Net Zero and high immigration would bring the debt down.
This is the counterfactual of what I sought to do in the Mini-Budget.
And it has been a disaster.
Thank you Phoebe Rolls Wedding Photography and so many other people who made our day so special; and thank you @Nigel_Farage for introducing us ten years so! โฅ๏ธ
A BEAUTIFUL COUPLE AND A BEAUTIFUL PHOTOGRAPH.
HUGE CONGRATULATIONS TO @IsabelOakeshott and @TiceRichard ๐พ๐ฅ on your wedding.
Wishing you many wonderful and happy years together ๐ฅณโฅ๏ธ
Do you see whatโs happening?
There is a coordinated campaign underway to try and revive the Tory party that nearly destroyed Britain.
The Tories this week polled LESS than what they won in 2024.
Theyโve lost their deposit at almost every parliamentary by-election in England and have massively underperformed their polling.
They want you to believe things have changed when 92% of Kemiโs team were in past Tory governments that wrecked this country.
But now look around the media class and the coordinated campaign against Reform UK.
Do you see whatโs happening?