Squirrel Nutz

I’ve held my tongue but it’s literally Election Day and clearly Bianco isn’t dropping out so let’s look at what I like to look at. It’s called evidence. Why would he drop out of the race two days before the day to vote when his name is already on all the ballots? None of the people who have been voting for weeks will have their votes transferred to Hilton if he were to drop out. Those votes would be lost. It makes no sense. I really don't like when things don't make sense, so I did a little research. Hilton has the fundraising edge in theory because Hilton raised $7.1 million through over 18,000 individual contributions. But, Bianco raised $4.4 million through over 10,000 donors. The key nuance and we all know I love nuance and truth: Hilton’s national media profile allows him to tap conservative donor networks beyond California, giving him a more geographically diversified fundraising base. Bianco remains far more dependent on in-state donors. So Hilton’s money doesn’t translate to votes. 100,000 versus 18,000 is a huge difference in a state race. Bianco’s support is also anchored in the Inland Empire, Riverside County, and parts of the Central Valley areas with reliable Republican primary participation. Hilton shows strength in Orange County and suburban coastal regions. The Inland Empire and Central Valley are where California Republicans actually live in large numbers and actually turn out. Orange County suburbanites are more persuadable and less reliable primary voters. Bianco’s geography is the GOP base. Hilton’s is the GOP periphery. The California Republican Assembly endorsed Bianco by a two-thirds supermajority of delegates. Over 45 county sheriffs including Orange County’s Don Barnes, San Bernardino’s Shannon Dicus, Butte County’s Kory Honea, Kern County’s Donny Youngblood, and San Francisco’s Paul Miyamoto. Also district attorneys Mike Hestrin (Riverside), Vern Pierson (El Dorado), and Dan Dow (San Luis Obispo). PORAC the Peace Officers Research Association of California, the state’s largest public safety organization representing over 86,000 members. Congressman Darrell Issa, Congressman Ken Calvert, Assembly Republican Leader Heath Flora, Assemblyman Phillip Chen, Assemblyman Joe Patterson, and Assemblyman Tri Ta. 49% of the GOP to 44% of the GOP support Bianco. Now onto the polling. Becerra had just 5% support in September 2025, dropped to 3% in March 2026. Then Swalwell dropped out in mid-April and suddenly Becerra jumped 7 points almost immediately. Then he kept climbing 10%, 13%, 19%, 23%, 25%, 28% —all within roughly six weeks. That is a 25 point jump within five weeks. Before Swalwell entered the race he was at 3%. When Swalwell was in the race he was polling at roughly 14-17%. When he dropped out, those votes had to go somewhere. The question is why did almost all of them go to Becerra specifically? The first Emerson poll after Swalwell's exit showed Becerra gaining 15 points among Democrats without Swalwell on the ballot. But Swalwell only had about 14-17% overall. For Becerra to gain 15 points among Democrats, you'd essentially need every single Swalwell voter plus additional new voters to break for Becerra and nobody else. Steyer only gained 2-3 points. Porter gained almost nothing. That kind of one-sided consolidation in a multi-candidate race is statistically very unusual. This is the sharpest discrepancy of all. The Cal Poly Pomona poll the only major poll that directly measured voter enthusiasm found: Bianco voters: 52% very excited Hilton voters: 48% very excited Porter voters: 28% very excited Becerra voters: only 19% very excited Steyer voters: only 11% very excited Voter enthusiasm is very telling. Among California's likely voters as defined by PPIC's own methodology, 47% identify as Democrats, 27% as Republicans, and 24% as independents. That 47-27 split is the foundation every poll is built on. But here's the catch "likely voter" in California polling means "people who voted in recent California elections." Recent California elections have been dominated by Democrats because Republicans have been demoralized and disengaged for years. The moment Republican enthusiasm spikes like right now the model becomes instantly outdated because it's measuring a different electorate than the one that's about to show up. Pollsters have increasingly found evidence of partisan nonresponse particular types of Republicans are just less likely to take surveys, so these voters' opinions are not reflected in survey data. Hilton's voters are more likely to be Orange County suburban Republicans, more educated, more coastal the type of Republican who has historically voted in California primaries and therefore shows up in likely voter models. Bianco's voters are Inland Empire, Central Valley, rural conservatives precisely the profile of voters who are chronically under sampled in California polls because they've been most alienated from the process. So even within the Republican undercount problem, Hilton gets overcounted relative to Bianco. An enthusiasm case study: Ken Paxton The University of Houston poll had Paxton leading Cornyn by just 3 points 48% to 45% calling it a close race. Paxton defeated Cornyn by 28 points. The pre-election polls pointed to a Paxton victory, but his margin vastly exceeded their estimates. Finaly democrats want Hilton. They think he's easier to beat in a general that is not disputed. Democrats have a documented playbook here. They did it in 2024 with Garvey. They knew it worked. And they ran it again. CNN confirmed that top Democrats were talking to major donors about funding "Greater Golden State," an independent expenditure campaign that the Democratic Governors Association helped set up explicitly designed to boost Hilton's viability. There was a semi-secret drive underway by Democratic operatives to trumpet Hilton's ties to a very unpopular President Trump, hoping that would spark Republican support for him and boost him into one of the two top finishes thereby avoiding a Democrat-vs-Democrat showdown. This is exactly what happened in the 2024 U.S. Senate race when Democrat Adam Schiff helped Republican Steve Garvey qualify for November, avoiding a faceoff with Democrat Katie Porter. The Democratic Governors Association sent mailers emphasizing Hilton's conservative credentials essentially running ads FOR a Republican candidate. Democrats wanted Hilton because they thought they could beat him. They didn't want Bianco because they weren't sure they could. So they ran a covert operation to help Hilton while polls whether deliberately or structurally were simultaneously showing Bianco collapsing.

235

552

135

136K

Squirrel Nutz @activegametrail

2 days ago

@browncow912111 @ChadBianco The thought has been on my mind… I like chess.

Squirrel Nutz @activegametrail

2 days ago

@CargileForCA35 I pray the rest of the state sees this. I don’t have much faith in California anymore.

Squirrel Nutz @activegametrail

3 days ago

@ChooseGoodKarma @ChadBianco It is done.

Squirrel Nutz @activegametrail

3 days ago

One thing you can take from the profane hate on many of these posts is that @ChadBianco is over the target and the degenerate left with no morals or emotional control spew hate and personal attack to divide all of us… You live in America people vote for the person you feel best serves your family, business, community, and country in that order!!! Ask yourself why is he being attacked by all political sides in California and for that matter nation wide? They are scared and know there is a large number of good people in California that are do e with failed policies and identity politics. Chad Bianco is the threat to the status quo. It’s time to stop it and take this state back!