Adam Rapfogel

Proud New Jerseyan, Rays fan, and IKEA family card holder. Polling and data person, @tuftsuniversity @dccc @gsg @timkaine alum. Views my own.

[Michigan Democrats @MichiganDems]

LEAKED AUDIO: Mike Rogers, falsely claiming his last election was stolen, says he wants to intimidate Detroit voters this time around.

"Let's put retired or off-duty police officers as our poll watchers in Detroit. Go ahead, try to intimidate them. Please."

[Tampa Bay Rays @RaysBaseball]

The boys are bringing it back

Get game 6 tix: https://t.co/PRqOFP7DcI

#ForTampaBay | #postseason

[Andrew Mamo @AndrewMamo5]

I’ve seen a lot of congressional events. I’ve never seen something like Bobby Pulido’s rally tonight.

[Jamie Ager @JamieAgerNC]

I'm a patriot who has always been a partner to the land, my community, and Western North Carolina. It’s these deep-rooted values that I'm going to bring to Congress.

#NC11 #WNC #WesternNC

[John Anzalone @JohnAnzo]

Pollsters during tracking season would blow this chart up.

@mollykmurphy @BrianStryker @TonyFabrizioGOP @adamhgeller @jefpollock @KCkid @jillmn3 @dellavolpe @davidbinder @FabrizioWard

[Bulwark Clips @BulwarkClips]

Sen. Dan Sullivan: "Can I ask the moderator a question? We weren't supposed to get these questions beforehand, were we?"

Moderator: "Neither one of you got questions beforehand. Absolutely not."

Sullivan: "Okay, I'm just watching my opponent read from questions that seem to be answered."

Mary Peltola: "I'm prepared."

[Adam Rapfogel @AdamRapfogel]

Unfortunately, I think this just tells you there are some real non-response issues in this poll…

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

Texas Senate Race — Independents

🟦 James Talarico: 69% (+58)
🟥 Ken Paxton: 11%

Context: Beto O'Rourke won independent voters by 3% in the 2018 Texas U.S. Senate race

[Adam Rapfogel @AdamRapfogel]

Would love a decent public poll in some of the states toward the bottom here, but my best guess at how some of these races go (as of a week ago)…

[Alex Von Hagen-Jamar @alexvhj]

This is intuitive if you expect late deciders to tend towards underlying partisanship.

[Medium Buying @MediumBuying]

#KSSen: D group New Deal for All, Inc. is up on TV with this spot hitting incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R) --

Male voiceover:

"He swore an oath to do no harm. Roger Marshall gouged his own patients with 18% interest. Then had them arrested when they couldn't pay. Like a pregnant mother, handcuffed in front of her toddler and sent to jail over a C-section bill of $50"

[Adam Rapfogel @AdamRapfogel]

My apartment is 20 minutes away from this store, and I feel like I need to visit to get to the bottom of this…

[Pop Base @PopBase]

Art of Play, the store of the Kelly Clarkson saga, shares new statement:

“We'd like to clarify one additional detail about Kelly Clarkson's visit to our Curiosity Shop on Saturday.

During the 5 minutes she spent in the store, she inquired about our mechanical bird puppet named Molly. We explained that while Molly is permanently attached to the wall and serves as a de facto mascot for our shop, a nearly identical automaton is owned by the creator of the machines, a brilliant artist named Bliss Kolb who lives in Seattle. He told us he would be willing to part with Molly's twin for $15,000. We explained all of this to Kelly Clarkson.

We also offered to show her a different singing bird automaton, made by a traditional clockmaking shop in Germany, that she could have taken home with her that day. It costs about $2,000. She did not stick around long enough to see it.

We've reached out to Kelly directly to try and clear the air. We really do wish her the best and hope that someday we can all laugh about this misunderstanding.”

[tyson brody @tysonbrody]

You’re welcome Roger! Happy to help you pay your bills, no lawsuit or arrest warrant needed 🥰

[Adam Rapfogel @AdamRapfogel]

True, but misleading — the share of Dems is too low, but it’s because there are too many Independents (who turn out at a lower rate than partisans).

In actuality, the D:R ratio is about right, just with too many independents.

[Bleeding Heartland @LauraRBelin]

Another poll that weighted results to Iowa's registered voter file: 39.8% of respondents GOP, 31.2% Dem, 29% independent.
Even in 2022, when Iowa Dems had no statewide GOTV, an uncompetitive #IAGov race, and poor turnout, Dems made up 34% of voters. Should be higher this year.

[Medium Buying @MediumBuying]

#KSSen: People Over Politics is up on TV with this spot hitting incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall --

Female voiceover:

"We've seen how multimillionaire Dr. Roger Marshall treats his patients. Hundreds sued over their medical bills, dozens arrested. Even a pregnant mom arrested in front of her daughter"

"And as Senator, Marshall's just as bad for your health care"

[Team Hamilton @TeamHamiltonHQ]

Kansas doctors: The healthcare system is broken. Roger Marshall is making it worse.

[Adam Rapfogel @AdamRapfogel]

Lots of pollsters still aren’t weighting vote recall. That’s bad/will cause Dem bias.

But huge pro-Dem misses have been isolated to pres years (16/20/24).

Take KS/ME: ‘20 polls were too Dem, but ‘22 ME polls undershot Mills; ‘23 KS polls undershot “no” on the abortion measure.

[Will Jordan @williamjordann]

But difficulty reaching certain R-leaning voters is not new, and it's what "recalled '24 vote" adjustments many pollsters now use is for. Also what OP points to is not just that - it could also be Trump voters lying about their vote, which plausibly biases polls *against* Dems.

[G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris]

People are now accepting this as fact, and there is very limited evidence of this. Pundits just want bonus points for calling things early. Pollsters stratifying their samples by party registration and using inverse propensity sampling (which helps a lot here!!) have the same toplines as Chaz

[Will Jordan @williamjordann]

But difficulty reaching certain R-leaning voters is not new, and it's what "recalled '24 vote" adjustments many pollsters now use is for. Also what OP points to is not just that - it could also be Trump voters lying about their vote, which plausibly biases polls *against* Dems.

[Hugo Lowell @hugolowell]

SCOOP @WIRED: Abdul El-Sayed is out with a new paid digital ad in the Michigan Senate race attacking Mike Rogers for helping expand government surveillance, seeking to tap into voter anxieties about tech and Flock cameras weeks before the midterms

[Manny Rutinel @MannyRutinel]

Gabe Evans voted for Trump���s healthcare cuts, tariffs, and wars raising our costs.

Evans votes 100% with Trump, making you pay more.

I’ll fight to lower costs and hold Trump accountable. Join the fight. Link in bio.