David Binder

pollster, focus group moderator, not much else

[David Binder @davidbinder]

@jeffzeleny PHL open

[David Binder @davidbinder]

@demsocsean @Timodc would not always assume results are biased based on affiliation of pollsters. could be an accurate result without partisan bias

[David Binder @davidbinder]

@DylanDude120 @USA_Polling the latter

[Max Kanin 🇺🇦 @MDKanin]

I need to explain why this poll is bullshit. California does not have a Democratic gubernatorial primary. We have a primary where all candidates run on the same ballot, every voter gets a single vote, and whichever top two candidates get the most votes, advance regardless of party (or percentage of the vote).

So, you will have Republicans and non-major party candidates on the same ballot with Kamala. You will have non-Democrats voting. To do a poll of Democrats of only a few Democratic candidates is not a proper poll. It does not properly measure the electorate.

[David Binder @davidbinder]

@The_Lawtender @jonfavs romney had 47.2 in 2012 so that’s even less of a shift to trump

[David Binder @davidbinder]

@LauraRBelin @Redistrict The latter. a bit misleading. In CA, for example, Biden got 63% in 2020 and Harris is receiving 59% this year, so Dem vote share down 4. But the Biden margin was 29, and Harris margin is 21, and they report it as -8.

[David Binder @davidbinder]

@atrupar it was not an overwhelming popular vote victory. donald trump failed to gain a majority of votes cast, and leads harris by 1.7% of popular vote. reagan beat mondale by 18% in 1984. but johnson and gop act as if they are equivalent mandates.

[David Binder @davidbinder]

@yashar point is about 50% of osceola is hispanic and 50% of hispanics are puerto rican - so about 25% of the county’s pop is puerto rican. Probably less if we look at voters. it may be true that puerto ricans moved to trump but we don’t know that for sure just by county trends

[David Binder @davidbinder]

@yashar cross tabs please?

[David Binder @davidbinder]

@nypost MAGA voters see this and say 'hell yeah!'
Swing voters read this and ask, 'do they think that only white men are qualified?'
Disengaged/disaffected Democrats read this and think, 'one reason to vote in November is to stop people who think this way from gaining power.'

[David Binder @davidbinder]

@ShaneGoldmacher @nytimes @RuthIgielnik this poll tells you much more about the allegiances, values and emotions of republicans vs democrats today than it does about trump vs biden

[David Binder @davidbinder]

@CA_120 26?

[David Binder @davidbinder]

@MarkHalperin not sure about "surgette" in this case...

[David Binder @davidbinder]

@AlexThomp the word “surge” should not apply to someone who polls at 10%

[David Binder @davidbinder]

@CA_120 appears last batch in of about 76k went for Bass by 63-37

[David Binder @davidbinder]

@CA_120 Poll questions asking which ONE of this list of issues is most important neglect the fact that most voters decide on a variety of issues, not just one.

[David Binder @davidbinder]

@CA_120 but this is exactly why it's important to conduct qualitative research alongside the quant. in focus groups, voters tell us it is rarely one issue that determines their vote, but rather a menu of issues as well as a gut feel for which candidate will fight for their interests.

[David Binder @davidbinder]

@umichvoter the beloved CA 41, where Will Rollins speaks to the heavily gay Palm Springs area population and the heavily not gay area around Corona and Lake Elsinore

[David Binder @davidbinder]

About one million additional ballots counted in California since wednesday AM; the new 1mm are about 2 points more Democrat than election night returns; Prop 1 also two points higher in the new million.