Senior Europe consultant for The Economist @TheEIU. Writing on Turkey, Cyprus, Malta & Belgium| Previously covered Russia, Africa for The Economist|Views my own
"The stakes couldn't be higher."
Ahead of Turkey's presidential elections, #TothePoint asks: Are Turkey's elections Erdogan's moment of truth? @candundaradasi@DilekKurban13 + @juliahahntv on their hopes, fears and predictions for the upcoming elections. https://t.co/DVyihc0J1w
The ruling United Russia party will secure a convincing victory in the parliamentary vote that takes place between September 17-19 in #Russia. Major changes in the cabinet or the government’s policy direction are unlikely. https://t.co/eSMYYyIBI2
#Turkey's MPC monthly meeting is today. Erdogan is pro cutting rate but given that there is no room for that (inflation reached 18.95% in July) we expect the central bank to keep the key interest rate at 19%.
What's behind #Russia and #China's vaccine diplomacy and why have western powers lost the battle? Our latest @TheEIU quarterly report has (some) answers
https://t.co/eDse2OKuUy
On “The Jab”:
-@AgatheDemarais from @TheEIU on vaccines as tools of soft power
-@Sondreus digs into the data on where jabs are being shipped
-The Economist’s David Smith on Argentina’s deal with Russia to buy and produce the Sputnik V vaccine
https://t.co/AW0XxixS2W
First take on US sanctions on Russia
• Sanctions on people/firms irrelevant; they have no ties to US
• Ban on debt transactions more painful, but applies only to primary market: easy to circumvent on 2dary market
• Russian debt low and falling anyway
• Markets likely relieved
But Navalny's team most probably expected this sentence. Have they prepared a counter-offensive with the eloquent Yulia Navalnaya? #Navalny#RussiaProtests
With Navalny remaining in jail for the next few years, the survival of his anti-corruption movement is open to doubt. Without its charismatic leader, and as long as pandemic restrictions continue to limit public gatherings, it will be difficult to sustain the movement. #Navalny
From the 2020 @TheEIU Democracy Index:
"Even though they were pressed for time while tackling an urgent public health catastrophe, governments could have treated the public like grown-ups and asked for their consent and involvement in combating the coronavirus epidemic."
By jailing #Navalny for over 2 years the Kremlin has done what it had balked at doing for over 10 years. The fact it took this risk shows not only the political status Navalny has reached but also the danger his movement poses. A major & maybe pivotal milestone for the Putin era.
Democracy in sickness and in health? 70% of countries covered in @TheEIU's Democracy Index recorded a drop to their democracy score in 2020. #Covid19 was the key driver behind the decline. Full index results here: https://t.co/gmyjo0KrEN
Want to help during #COVIDー19 but not sure how? Consider donating food to your nearest foodbank. A lot harder to self-isolate if you are worried about putting food on the table. https://t.co/f11jw91iC0
#Putin likes to surprise. Even more, he likes to confuse. The clock on presidential term-limits paves the way for another presidential term for #Putin. Is this the last surprise? https://t.co/RBGDHufQHj
If you haven't followed the latest constitutional rewrite in #Russia here is a good thread by @Ben_H_Noble
Is this an elaborate way for #Putin to remain in charge until 2036?
https://t.co/RppGNDCeX8
Quick clarification, if needed: this thread relates to changes made to the 2nd-reading version of Putin’s bill, which incorporated changes the lead committee recommended adopting in 2nd reading. 19/?