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I was reading for a course on Insurgency and Counter-Insurgency (COIN) tonight, and one thing stood out to me about the way Governor Seyi Makinde handled the Oriire kidnapping incident. His response reflected several key principles of modern counter-insurgency strategy.
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Counter-insurgency is not just about deploying force against insurgents. It is a combination of military, intelligence, political, and social actions aimed at defeating the threat while maintaining the confidence of the people. The central idea of COIN is simple: the government must not only defeat the insurgents, it must also win the trust and cooperation of the population.
Using the COIN framework, Governor Seyi Makinde’s response to the Oriire incident can be examined through several dimensions.
1. Building Public Trust and Protecting Civilian Confidence
One of the most important principles of counter-insurgency is winning the hearts and minds of the people. In insecurity situations, victims and communities are often at their most vulnerable, and government presence becomes a major symbol of reassurance.
Governor Seyi Makinde’s decision to visit Oriire and meet directly with the affected families showed this principle clearly. Beyond security operations, he showed empathy and physical presence at a time when the community needed reassurance that government had not abandoned them.
This kind of action helps strengthen public confidence and sends the message that the government is present, responsive, and committed to protecting citizens.
2. Intelligence Gathering and Operational Security
A major part of COIN is intelligence. Successful counter-insurgency depends not only on military strength but also on accurate information about the movements and activities of criminals.
Governor Makinde emphasised the importance of operational secrecy, making sure that sensitive information about security efforts was kept within the right channels. This is important because leaks can compromise rescue operations and give criminals an advantage.
Effective intelligence management allows security agencies to work strategically rather than reactively.
3. Keeping the Public Informed and Managing Information
Another important part of counter-insurgency is communication. Governments must keep citizens informed so that fear and rumours do not take over.
During the Oriire incident, the administration maintained communication with the public and gave updates while still protecting sensitive security information.
This is important because silence during a crisis can create panic and misinformation. At the same time, government communication must be careful and accurate so that it does not create false hope or expose ongoing operations.
4. Restricting the Freedom of Movement of Criminal Networks
Counter-insurgency often requires measures that reduce the ability of criminals to move freely.
The introduction of executive measures, including restrictions on certain activities such as motorcycle operations in affected areas, can be understood in this way. Such measures are meant to limit mobility, stop criminals from using transport channels, and make security operations easier.
Although such policies must be handled carefully so that ordinary citizens are not unfairly affected, they still fit into the broader COIN approach of reducing the space in which insecurity can grow.
5. Demonstrating Political Will and State Authority
A major goal of counter-insurgency is restoring government authority in areas threatened by non-state actors.
Governor Makinde’s response sent a clear message that criminal groups would not control the security situation in Oyo State. His statement that “this is not Chibok” showed his determination that Oyo State would not allow insecurity to become normalised or allow criminals to act without challenge.
The statement was not just political talk. It showed that the government was ready to respond firmly and defend its people.