aden barton

RA @WhiteHouseCEA. Fmr Intern @PostOpinions and @Bridgewater. Harvard '24

[aden barton @aden_barton]

Read the full article here: https://t.co/onWCRv9yww

[aden barton @aden_barton]

New: For the first time ever, we have five generations in the workforce.

That hurts young workers the most, who have to wait for their older colleagues to retire.

The result? Increasing age inequality and slower wage growth for the youngest cohorts.

[aden barton @aden_barton]

This problem will be around for decades, since America's workforce is projected to keep aging.

There's not a lot that can be done, but more business dynamism and mentorship for younger workers would be a good start.

[Shadi Hamid @shadihamid]

Kamala Harris has dramatically upended Democrats' campaign strategy. @aden_barton and I analyzed the words and phrases she most often uses. It's a striking shift from Biden's approach. Gone is the focus on Trump's threat to democracy. This is good news.

https://t.co/ak4FCSZJU1

[aden barton @aden_barton]

You can read the full piece here: https://t.co/5Taqf8yeni

[aden barton @aden_barton]

NEW: How is Harris campaigning differently from Biden?

@shadihamid and I have a piece out today that answers this using data from speeches, ads, and campaign emails.

The most shocking result: Harris’s campaign emails mention Republicans being “weird” twice as much as Jan. 6!

[aden barton @aden_barton]

What's replaced the Democrat's campaign focus? Freedom, the future, abortion and — most surprisingly — the border.

Kamala talks way more about immigration than Biden. Her third ad was entirely focused on border security.

[Shadi Hamid @shadihamid]

🚨 New column co-written with data wiz @aden_barton is dropping soon.

Featuring a revisionist take (at least for me) on the Kamala phenomenon.

Sign up here to get it straight to your inbox 👇🏽

https://t.co/XbFuXAdQAi

[Heather Long @byHeatherLong]

NEW: Out of all America's challenges, one of the most straightforward to fix is our $34 trillion debt (that is on track to grow to $142 trillion by 2054).

The @pgpfoundation asked 7 think tanks across the political spectrum to come up with plans.

All 7 managed to reduce the debt trajectory by at least 33%. 🧵

[Heather Long @byHeatherLong]

NEW: Who benefitted the most in the Biden and Trump economies?

Today I published 17 charts (w/@aden_barton ) to try to answer this Q.

Most of America experienced lower unemployment under Biden. /1

[Catherine Rampell @crampell]

Great news guys, we finally got rid of greed https://t.co/CnhzSrRUb8
(w/ my colleague @aden_barton)

[aden barton @aden_barton]

But spending at these chains has stabilized recently, forcing restaurants to offer discounts to retain customers. It wasn’t greed that pushed prices up during the pandemic; it was demand, which is now cooling and having the opposite effect: falling prices.

[aden barton @aden_barton]

New piece out from @crampell and I on the rise of fast-food value meals and how these discounts challenge the corporate greed explanation of inflation. https://t.co/rlS9mzey05

[aden barton @aden_barton]

Fast-food prices have skyrocketed since 2019, with brand items like the Chick-fil-A sandwich or Dairy Queen Blizzard up nearly 40%.

[Heather Long @byHeatherLong]

Fascinating: In the early 1960s, the average college student studied ~25 hours per week. By 2000, that number had fallen to ~14 hours.

Today's college students study just as much in college as Millennials and (late) Gen X.

Why?
-It's more than computers
-->Students spend more time on work and extracurriculars (esp. as college costs ⬆️)
-Grading has also gotten easier

[aden barton @aden_barton]

Here’s the link to the piece: https://t.co/GmQDSB8xws

[aden barton @aden_barton]

Here's the key graph from my piece in @PostOpinions
today. College students today study about as much as Millennials and Gen X. In fact, Gen Z probably works more hours weekly if you include extracurriculars and part-time jobs.

[aden barton @aden_barton]

But the kids are not (fully) alright. Time socializing with one another has been replaced by time on devices:

[aden barton @aden_barton]

Finally, the debate seems to have hurt Dem’s chances down-ballot in Ohio not Arizona (the only two Congressional races on PredictIt), suggesting a lot of heterogeneity in down-ballot effects.

[aden barton @aden_barton]

How do betting market reactions to Thursday's debate compare historically? They’re in line with past poor debate performances. But Biden's odds stabilized more quickly than Rubio’s or Bloomberg’s, similar to his odds flattening after criticism from Kamala in a 2019 debate.

[aden barton @aden_barton]

The odds drop is also comparable to recent black-swan events, significantly surpassing the impact of Comey’s announcement but aligning closely with the effect of the Access Hollywood tape.