JC

Former HF analyst running a self funded search. Focused on Manufacturing and B2B services, searching nationwide.

[JC @adept_smb]

I recently left my job as an analyst at a pod shop HF and launched a self funded search focused on Manufacturing and B2B Services. Sharing my journey here to reflect, help, and connect with others.

[JC @adept_smb]

@chooserich 5yr cagr is already 15% why would it accelerate from here

[JC @adept_smb]

A good lesson for fellow searchers looking to use cold emails, it's always a numbers game but I imagine the game is as awful as it's ever been

[JC @adept_smb]

I get 1-3 emails per week from students looking to help me with my search. They all clearly use AI because every email has about 95% overlap on the text and content. I'm not looking to take anyone on anyway, but it's such a quick ignore since there's no differentiation.

[JC @adept_smb]

@OneManLBO What if I just skip the introspection and buy a car I can’t afford

[JC @adept_smb]

@Investor_NICK_ then I guess NVDA more recently, almost 10x in about 18 months Jan 23 to Jun 24, it did have a -30% peak to trough move after that but it was alongside the tariff move so only -15% vs market not really a crash

[JC @adept_smb]

This Iran saga is a really important lesson for any investor out there.

1. Even the greatest traders are getting a hit rate of like 70% over the years (and more like 55% for an average tenured buysider LT tbh), you're going to be wrong a lot and that's fine!

2. The guys who are cocky and say they're always right are the ones that make the least money.

[Paulo Macro @PauloMacro]

But when you get a relatively small group of black belts wo have operated in a space for many years, maybe decades, who are beside themselves with bewilderment at how a market they have known and specialized in gets this sort of treatment from the macro tourist/generalist crowd, in this sort of acute manner, you have to wonder. When the smart money in crude was buying as far back as December (in my case the position actually started even before the lows as far back as September, and this is because I am the *dumb money* where early = wrong... who remembers this meme below?), and the 60-vol asset you are long is up nearly 50% YTD but in a -25% roll-adjusted drawdown and people are mocking you like this... well... I'd like to think there is signal in that.

We'll see how things shake out.
/Fin
https://t.co/GbYpJAmgIu

[JC @adept_smb]

@OneManLBO Totally depends on the operating agreement, brothers could have the right to sell with a simple majority and minority gets dragged along/tagged along.

[JC @adept_smb]

@Will_Schryver Will do you think a union presence is a deal killer for CHVAC? Looking at something like this for the first time in the Northeast. Seems like exits are tougher if it's union shop, is it even worth taking a look?

[JC @adept_smb]

valuation higher than NVDA lol

[JC @adept_smb]

Getting my first real lead from a proprietary search effort. 115 targets, 250 physical letters later. A demoralizing process for the most part, but when a response finally hits it feels so good.

[JC @adept_smb]

17% margin, good benchmark for fellow searchers to keep in mind LT

[Will Schryver @Will_Schryver]

MASSIVE Residential HVAC Deal

$3 billion Revenue
$500 million EBITDA
20x EV/EBITDA

Minority investment coming from Apollo

Full story @homeprosnews

M&A updates 👉🏼 https://t.co/SsZtZOiyDJ

[JC @adept_smb]

@AKASpencerScott @SpokeDelivery Not sure how good it is but Google Maps has a route optimization API on their cloud platform, might be worth checking out

[JC @adept_smb]

@sourcesandmuses If construction fell 50% in year 1 because a builder just liked the current owner and has no reason to stick with you, would you still like the deal?

[JC @adept_smb]

Bullish goog, bearish my productivity. Already hit Claude limits so quickly, a limited Gemini model that doesn’t listen to your instructions is going to suck

[JC @adept_smb]

Why is gemini so lazy vs claude? This is the same $20/month type sub

[JC @adept_smb]

@ChairliftCap "what keeps your wife up at night?"

[JC @adept_smb]

Millennial anti AI sentiment is pretty ironic given how much we liked to dunk on boomers for not knowing how to convert to pdf or whatever

[JC @adept_smb]

@jamesonhaslam yeah never seen this before

[JC @adept_smb]

Did a site visit for a manufacturing target yesterday doing metal work. Really tough business. Impressive ops with a big factory, high headcount and a 60 year history.

Fundamentally it’s a business that should no longer exist in the northeast. Labor cost is too high, and the product is increasingly commoditized and facing international competition.

Listed at an incredible multiple, the real estate and equipment alone are probably worth the all in asking price. Business probably isn’t going bust in the next 5 years so maybe it’s a good buy for someone like me, learn the ropes of operating with low liquidation risk, and move on in a few years.

In my public market career value traps like this were the worse stocks to own. In this case it’s different because the cash flow to your pocket is still great, even if growth is unlikely and your exit value won’t go up.

In the end the tough cost here is opportunity cost, and I don’t think diving into a withering industry with no growth prospect is worth it when a PG is on the line even if downside risk is low and there are lessons to be learned.

Might as well wait for the better pitch to make the compounding worth it.