adfhq

Asymmetric upside
Risk-adjusted thinking
Economic thoughts on crypto meta shifts
since 2021

[darkzodchi @zodchiii]

https://t.co/JGtBkw8l2a

[adfhq @adf_hq]

@ruggedpikachu Nobody promised you anything, you chose to be here
There’s no one to blame but yourself

[adfhq @adf_hq]

@shiri_shh Why you in AI if you have no fun with it?

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@DrDominicNg Fact checked this
Zero scientific backing in the article
Whole thing is just a funnel to make you pay him

[adfhq @adf_hq]

@funcry Memes that need paragraphs are dead on arrival

But founders will still write them because they're not building memes
They're building narratives to dump bags on

If the explainer is longer than the ticker, run

[adfhq @adf_hq]

L2s did their job
They scaled Ethereum when it needed scaling

But they also fragmented liquidity, created walled gardens, and extracted billions in sequencer fees while calling it "decentralization"

Now that the problem is solved, the solution providers don't want to go away
Their time is up but their incentives say otherwise

[adfhq @adf_hq]

If you’re thinking about quitting crypto, do it now
Because later you’ll regret not quitting earlier

[adfhq @adf_hq]

@erequendi you just need 1000x runner on $1000

[adfhq @adf_hq]

Using Binance after everything we know means you're okay with it

Holding BNB means you're betting on that being okay
Engaging with CZ means you're amplifying someone who got a slap on the wrist for systematic fraud
Supporting Trump who pardoned him means you value political alignment over accountability

The line from "just using an exchange" to "endorsing criminal impunity" is shorter than people admit

Everyone has a threshold where convenience stops being an excuse
Most people just haven't found theirs yet

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@ryandcrypto so you’re saying it either goes up or down?

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@AnonVee_ Nobody cares about 70k TPS when your chain processes 12 transactions per day

The TPS wars are just founders competing on specs normies will never verify
Show them an app they want, they'll figure out the chain

[adfhq @adf_hq]

TPS metrics are solutions looking for problems that don't exist yet

Chains brag about 70k TPS while processing 3 transactions per second
The bottleneck isn't throughput, it's having apps people actually want to use

We're not too early for apps
We're just bad at building them

[Anon Vee @AnonVee_]

cc megaeth and other (upcoming) chains

I still don’t get why y’all flex or try to solve what has already been achieved or solved for years now

Years ago, we wanted a chain alternative to ethereum and capable of processing transactions fast, at a cheap fee, and fully ethereum aligned; this led to the development of arb/op/base (SOLVED)

We also wanted another chain with all those features but on a completely new and different VM so as not to inherit ethereum security flaws; Solana was developed (SOLVED)

Right now, what we need in the crypto industry are banger apps,

and this should have been megaeth’s focus

and not trying to create and flaunt fake tps stats

retail doesn’t care about tps

we can’t onboard an average normie by telling him/her “our chain can sustain a tps of 69,000, would you wanna try out the chain?”

we onboard normies by showing them banger apps, apps they need, apps they’d like; only then would they wanna be onboarded.

MY TAKE

[adfhq @adf_hq]

Another brutal day

Drawdowns don’t separate believers from non believers
They separate those who sized correctly from those who didn’t
Most capitulation isn’t loss of conviction
It’s forced selling from bad risk management

Markets don’t reward belief
They reward staying power
If you’re forced to sell here, the mistake wasn’t today
It was position sizing months ago

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@Glenn6 Asymmetric hard work gets rewarded when you pick the right asymmetry

Most people just grind harder on dying narratives and call it discipline

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@sayinshallah Gensler created the airdrop meta by making ICOs illegal

Projects had to pretend tokens were free community gifts instead of securities
Farmers optimized the pretense
Now founders optimize extracting value from farmers

Full circle, different aesthetics

[adfhq @adf_hq]

I love this market

[adfhq @adf_hq]

Sentiment is cooked
Crypto natives running to gold
Timeline full of exit posts and “I’m done” threads

My base case: 8–9 more months of pain

If imagining that timeline makes you uncomfortable, you’re not managing risk
You’re just holding and hoping the bottom already happened

Real risk management means surviving being wrong for another year

[adfhq @adf_hq]

@mert Gold moving 6x crypto's mcap in a day just proves institutions can move size without breaking markets

Crypto's problem isn't that it's volatile, it's that there's no depth
When BTC moves 5% the entire market follows

This cope misses the actual issue

[adfhq @adf_hq]

@Bitcoin_Teddy That's why you stay quiet about building wealth

Society celebrates consumption and mocks accumulation
The second people see you stacking instead of spending, you become the problem

Build in silence, let results speak later

[adfhq @adf_hq]

@degenBRO__ Zama is another mid cook
Idos only works if you were through ICO, but airdrop farmers are getting mid returns at best