Aditya Farrad

Founder @ Moneymint

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

ASK ME ANYTHING!

Unanswered questions, unclear statements, charts, trading rules, psychology, risk, sizing, strategy, the Market Wizards chapter, the 2020 run, the run since, anything.

I’m thinking of writing again on Substack, a few deeper posts per month, similar to how Burry started writing again.

I want the first essays to answer the questions people actually care about the most.

So reply with the one question you would want me to go deepest on.

The best ones, perhaps with most likes to show interest will become the first ones answered.

https://t.co/VMTviDewLu

[Aditya Farrad @adityafarrad]

You can’t just walk through your life with your eyes half open. You have to know where you are going. You have to take possession of your life. It would be nice if you could rely on your friends and family, but when it comes to your life’s journey, you are on your own. It is your responsibility.

Part of that journey, including your trading journey, is to discover your weaknesses. You have to know where your mind lets you down. For the vast majority of people in the world, this will include their mind’s tendency to
wander.

[Aditya Farrad @adityafarrad]

Wanting success is easy. Becoming the person who can hold success is hard.

People want the results other people have.

They want the money.
They want the freedom.
They want the reputation.
They want the lifestyle.

But they do not want the routine, pain, sacrifice, discipline, and constraints that created those results.

[Aditya Farrad @adityafarrad]

I'm building Market Scanner with GPT 5.5 + Codex. In last one month have written 27,000 lines of code with help of Codex.

I'm not a coder.

But in the last few weeks, I went from "I have an idea" to an actual working product.

The idea is simple: Most investors find a stock after it has already moved.

Market Scanner tries to catch the signal before the crowd.

Examples:
AI data centres need more fibre
> optical fibre prices/demand rise
> Sterlite Tech gives strong returns

Bloom Energy starts running because of AI power demand
> its Indian supplier MTAR follows
> MTAR gives strong returns

Copper prices start rising globally
> Hindustan Copper becomes a direct beneficiary
> stock starts moving

So the tool connects:
* market data
* news
* commodities
* macro triggers
* supplier/customer relationships
* price and volume action

And turns it into one simple intelligence dashboard.

I first built it on Telegram.

Then moved it into a proper app hosted on DigitalOcean.

Now I'm integrating Zerodha API for live price, volume, moving averages, and breakout data.

I also realised Linear is a must if I want to turn this into a real product, not just a side project.

The current version is already working better than I expected.

The full product may take 6 months.

But honestly, with ChatGPT Pro + Codex, I think I can ship it in 3.

The craziest part?

A few months ago, I would have never imagined building this myself.

Now I'm debugging APIs, deploying apps, writing product specs, and building workflows with AI.

No coding background.

Just curiosity, patience, and a lot of "explain this like I'm new."

If you're waiting to build something because you think coding is too hard, Don't WAIT.

Start now, ask stupid questions.
Break things. Fix them.

Ship version 1.

If I can do it, you can also do it.

PS: If anyone wants help setting this up, feel free to reach out. I'll help you with the initial setup.

[Karthikeya Koora @Karthikoora]

While markets take time to improve, use this phase to sharpen your investing skills. True financial growth comes from putting capital to work and consistently outperforming average returns.

Rather than relying only on Intraday or F&O trading, consider Momentum Investing ,a proven strategy of buying high and selling higher. With the right approach, it can deliver strong results.

If you're ready to learn momentum investing fundamentals, feel free to reach out. I'm happy to help, Free of Cost :)

[Aditya Farrad @adityafarrad]

Putting it all together: India's banking system is fine (deposits growing at 12%) but structurally stressed (loans outpacing deposits for 4 years).

India's FX reserves are large enough to handle $120 oil but a Gulf war combining higher oil prices AND slower remittances creates a simultaneous double hit.

And the capital account turning negative means the usual safety valve of foreign capital inflows is no longer available. The macro setup is not a crisis, but it is meaningfully more vulnerable than it was 2–3 years ago.

[Aditya Farrad @adityafarrad]

Loans have outpaced deposits for 4+ consecutive years. Banks are lending faster than they're collecting savings.

This compresses the Credit-Deposit (CD) ratio when it gets too high (>80%), banks become fragile. The solution: either slow loan growth OR attract more deposits with higher rates, both are painful.

[Aditya Farrad @adityafarrad]

Why is this happening? The note says it explicitly:
>High valuations: Indian equities were trading at expensive multiples even as earnings growth disappointed. Foreign investors see better value elsewhere.

>Disappointing growth: India's GDP growth has been slower than the market priced in. Corporate earnings missed expectations for several consecutive quarters.

>FII selling: Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been net sellers of Indian equities, pulling billions out of the market over the past year.

>Stronger dollar: A strong USD makes emerging market assets like India less attractive global capital retreats to US assets.

Why this matters: A negative capital account, combined with a current account deficit (India imports more than it exports), means the rupee has no buffer.

Normally capital inflows paper over the trade deficit. When both go negative simultaneously, the RBI must sell FX reserves to defend the rupee, depleting the very buffer that protects against oil shocks. It's a double bind.

[Aditya Farrad @adityafarrad]

THE BOTTOM LINE

Is this 2022 BREIT (temporary panic, funds eventually unlocked) or 2008 mortgages (fundamental value impairment)?

The honest answer: nobody knows yet. Current payment default rates are still low (~1-2%).

But:
> Covenant defaults hit 3.2% (Sep 2025) and rising
> BDC price-to-NAV discount is at -17% same as the June 2022 trough
> SaaS disruption risk plays out over 5-7 year loan durations, NOT quarterly
> Retail investors are NOT patient money

The gates closing isn't the end. It's the beginning of finding out what these loans are actually worth.

Sources: BIS (Mar 2026), Fortune, Bloomberg, JPM Private Bank, UBS, iCapital, SEC filings

[Aditya Farrad @adityafarrad]

The $3 Trillion Private Credit Crisis Is Happening Right Now And It's Tied Directly to the AI Bubble

Everything is unraveling at once. Here's what you need to know. 🧵

[Aditya Farrad @adityafarrad]

> SEC has designated private credit as a TOP examination priority for FY2026
> Sen. Elizabeth Warren calling for federal stress tests across the sector
> Mohamed El-Erian has compared Blue Owl's February gate to the BNP Paribas August 2007 freeze, the first visible crack before the GFC

Mandatory, standardized valuations are coming. The era of managers marking their own homework is ending.