AD Patrickson

Markets are Noisy. I Explain what actually Matters
Petroleum Engineer | Macro Investor | Author

[AD Patrickson @adpatrickson]

78,000 words📝
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4 years of hardwork and research 💡
The little night watch boy is now an author and an industry expert. Impossible is Nothing 💪
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[AD Patrickson @adpatrickson]

https://t.co/YFD02yiG8e

[AD Patrickson @adpatrickson]

The market is once again confronting a familiar question:
Could this conflict move from political confrontation to a genuine disruption of physical oil supply?

[AD Patrickson @adpatrickson]

Weak global demand expectations are acting as a counterweight.

[AD Patrickson @adpatrickson]

Despite renewed conflict, oil’s advance has remained relatively contained compared with the most extreme geopolitical scenarios.
That tells us something important.
The market is pricing risk—but not yet pricing a prolonged and catastrophic loss of supply.

[AD Patrickson @adpatrickson]

Both messages can be true at the same time.
That is why oil remains the principal upside risk.

[AD Patrickson @adpatrickson]

Oil is currently acting as both a market and a warning system.
Its weakness tells us that investors remain concerned about global demand and economic growth.
Its rallies tell us that the global supply system remains vulnerable to geopolitical disruption.

[AD Patrickson @adpatrickson]

Because today, oil is not merely trading the war.
It is trading the economic consequences of what the war could still become.

[AD Patrickson @adpatrickson]

As a petroleum engineer and macro investor, my conclusion is simple:
Do not watch oil only to determine where crude prices are going.
Watch oil to understand where inflation, interest rates, consumer demand and the global economy may be heading next.

[AD Patrickson @adpatrickson]

My approach would be to trade selectively, keep position sizes disciplined, and stay alert for next week's CPI, which is likely to become the next major catalyst for all asset classes.

[AD Patrickson @adpatrickson]

The market has become more balanced than it was two days ago. The fear that every U.S.–Iran headline would immediately translate into a sustained oil shock is fading because physical energy flows have largely continued.

[AD Patrickson @adpatrickson]

For me, gold is no longer the highest-conviction macro trade. Until either inflation clearly cools or geopolitical risks materially worsen, the cleaner macro setup is in quality technology, while gold remains caught between competing forces.

[AD Patrickson @adpatrickson]

That distinction is important because it explains why oil is falling while the conflict continues.

[AD Patrickson @adpatrickson]

Today's market is transitioning from pure geopolitical fear toward risk assessment. The market is no longer asking "Will there be a war?" It is asking:
"Will this war materially affect inflation, Fed policy, and corporate earnings?"

[AD Patrickson @adpatrickson]

July 10, 2026

Today's market is transitioning from pure geopolitical fear toward risk assessment. The market is no longer asking "Will there be a war?" It is asking:
"Will this war materially affect inflation, Fed policy, and corporate earnings?"

[AD Patrickson @adpatrickson]

Bearish for Gold
Fed Minutes were mildly hawkish.
Oil-driven inflation risk.
Higher Treasury yields.
A relatively firm U.S. dollar.
Right now those forces are offsetting each other.
That is why gold is not trending cleanly

[AD Patrickson @adpatrickson]

Is gold's rally temporary?

At this stage, I would say:
Gold's bounce is likely to remain fragile until one macro narrative clearly wins.
There are two opposing forces.
Bullish for Gold
Weak NFP
Slowing US labor market
Lower long-term growth expectations
Geopolitical uncertainty

[AD Patrickson @adpatrickson]

Renewed U.S.–Iran conflict and higher oil prices → Favors higher inflation, higher yields, stronger USD, and pressures gold.
The second story is dominating today's trading

[AD Patrickson @adpatrickson]

Today is not a normal macro day. The market is balancing two competing narratives:
Weak U.S. labor market → Favors lower rates, lower yields, weaker USD, and stronger gold.

[AD Patrickson @adpatrickson]

Bearish surprise:
Fed minutes push back against dovish pricing, CPI/PPI come hot, DXY rebounds above 101.50, 10Y yield pushes back above 4.55%, and gold loses the post-NFP support zone.

[AD Patrickson @adpatrickson]

What would surprise market Today?

Bullish surprise:
Fed minutes sound less hawkish, DXY breaks below 100.50, 2Y yield falls below 4.00%, gold holds above $4,100, and Nasdaq leadership broadens beyond a few AI names.