Adrian Barrett

Founder of Lightmaker, RESAAS and LMPM

[Adrian Barrett @adrianbarrett]

I got this from SuperGrok:
- Bitcoin isn't "safe" like gold or T-bills — it will have gut-wrenching volatility, regulatory fights, and tech risks. But if the thesis holds (decentralized digital scarcity wins in a world of abundant fiat and centralization), it has the highest asymmetric upside as a long-duration bet on sound money.
- Summary: For someone forced to pick only one, Bitcoin is my (Grok's) answer — the hardest, most antifragile money humanity has produced so far.

[Adrian Barrett @adrianbarrett]

@NewsAsset Great show!!

[Adrian Barrett @adrianbarrett]

@caprioleio Simply rubbish!

[Fred Krueger #BIP-110 @dotkrueger]

Let's explain this mathematically.
The best model I have for Bitcoin is

Model B:
Up 2x
Down to 0.6x

Now this ignores autocorrelation. Good years have tended to come in 3 (and now 2) but this is the fundamental multiplicative model. It has a 40% CAGR and 80% VOL

Stocks have a different model

Model S:
Up 1.22 x
Down 0.88x

This has a 9% CAGR and 18% VOL.

Again, these things trend. But this is the base model.

Now if you play out these models in a simulation, you get this. Bitcoin clearly wins. Traditional finance theory doesn't get this.

[Adrian Barrett @adrianbarrett]

@thewillwallace Holy shit 🤯 @thewillwallace - that's freakin' insane!!

[Adrian Barrett @adrianbarrett]

@dotkrueger Great line Fred - love your explanations as always!

[Adrian Barrett @adrianbarrett]

@PeterSchiff Blah blah blah blah… come on Peter… get a little Bitty at the bottom!!

[Adrian Barrett @adrianbarrett]

@unusual_whales 😳

[Adrian Barrett @adrianbarrett]

@HereforVK18 @SawyerMerritt Brilliant!!

[Adrian Barrett @adrianbarrett]

@trendingbitcoin Fantastic - translated that means “Buy Now!!”. Whatever Jim says - do the opposite!! 🤣

[Adrian Barrett @adrianbarrett]

@dotkrueger @dotkrueger - absolutely love 🧡 the format. Just shared that with some friends who are (finally) about to buy BTC after me harping on about Bitcoin for 10+ years!

[Adrian Barrett @adrianbarrett]

@dotkrueger Ohhh My Goddd - I coughed up a cup of coffee launching at this one @dotkrueger... 🤣🍭🤣

[Adrian Barrett @adrianbarrett]

@levelsio Apple needs to "Think Differently" - this time... about itself!!

[Adrian Barrett @adrianbarrett]

@dotkrueger Some people/companies get lucky. These people got lucky<cubed>… and now they are showing their true colours. Idiots!

[Adrian Barrett @adrianbarrett]

@StephenM Bull! 🐂 💩

[Will Wallace @thewillwallace]

@adrianbarrett @saylor @blockworksDAS Get out dude! That’s awesome!

[Adrian Barrett @adrianbarrett]

@dotkrueger Wow @dotkrueger - that’s a pretty damn perfect summary of the real world situation with BTC, SOL and ETH. Brilliant summary, thanks for sharing.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

EUR gonna need BTC

[Adrian Barrett @adrianbarrett]

@saylor - great to meet you at @blockworksDAS 2025… you are the Bitcoin GOAT 🐐 and a total inspiration!

[Adrian Barrett @adrianbarrett]

@dotkrueger @dotkrueger - brilliant SOTS 🫶!! (Summary Of The Summaries).