US September jobs: just +29k payrolls (vs ~90k expected). Unemployment at 4.2%.
Revisions: July and August cut by 60k combined. July ends at −10k.
Wages: +3.0% year over year, slowest since 2021. Participation up to 61.8%.
Market read: less pressure to hike in October. December stays on the table. Yields dipped, then bounced.
Not a collapse, still low-hire, low-fire. Inflation is still what the Fed watches most.
September jobs land today (2:30pm Spain). Consensus is about +90–95k payrolls, unemployment still at 4.1%.
The real story this week is rates: the US 10-year hit 5.34% yesterday (highest since 2002) then eased near 5.25%. After softer PCE and clearer Fed speak, October hike odds fell to roughly 25% from ~70% a few days ago. Markets now lean more toward December.
Bitcoin is holding above $86k into the print. Soft jobs keeps the relief trade alive. Hot jobs put yields and risk back under pressure.